The two-front scenario that India might face has been analyzed to death by both military and strategic scholars. This is commonly understood to mean that India may be forced into a situation where it has no choice but to tackle China and Pakistan, both at once. The Late Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat as far back as September 2020 had said: “Chinese economic cooperation with Pakistan, in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, along with continued military, economic and diplomatic support mandate high levels of preparation by us. This also poses the threat of coordinated action along the northern and western fronts, which we have to consider in our defence planning”. In October 2020, the then Air Force Chief RKS Bhadauria stated in a press conference that his “force was ready for a two-front war”. In January 2021, the then Army Chief General Naravane said: “There is increased cooperation between Pakistan and China, both in military and non-military fields. A two-front situation is something we must be ready to deal with”. Thus, it is fair to say that the top Indian military leadership has been carefully considering and seriously preparing for a two-front security threat. But preparation is one thing; confronting it in reality is another.

The real question at present is whether the two-front nightmare has come true for India? It is easy to forget that following the deadly clashes in Ladakh in June 2020, there was massive mobilization of troops by both China and India. Since then, there have been numerous parleys between the two countries leading to some military disengagement of troops especially in Eastern Ladakh. But the fundamental fact remains that as many as 50,000 Chinese soldiers and an equal number of Indian troops are in a “eyeball to eyeball” situation. The Sino-Indian border, fortunately, is not “hot” and a thaw in Sino-Indian ties is both evident and welcome. Even so, it is hard to deny that there is a strategic threat confronted by India at its Himalayan border with China.

On 22 April 2025, a group of five armed terrorists attacked tourists in the picturesque Baisaran Valley in Pahalgam, Kashmir. 26 innocent tourists lost their lives and at least twenty others were injured. This was by far the deadliest terrorist attack that India has endured since the horrific 2008 events in Mumbai. A little known offshoot of the well known Pak-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, called The Resistance Front, initially claimed responsibility, only to retract it four days later. That does not change the fact of Pakistan’s involvement which India announced to the world at large, before taking a series of punitive measures: Holding of the bilateral Indus Waters Treaty (1960) in abeyance, closing the Integrated Check Post Attari, cancelling the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pak nationals, declaring defence personnel posted at the Pakistan High Commission in Delhi as Persona Non Grata and bringing the overall strength of the High Commissions down to 30 from 55. Pakistan took retaliatory action, mirroring most of India’s measures. Most imortantly, Pakistan suspended the Simla Agreement of 1972. It seems unlikely that the matter will end here. There is almost a presentiment of some military action that India might undertake, at a time and place of its choosing. It is fair to say that the Indian subcontinent is on edge.

With fifty thousand troops each from China and India continuing to remain in Ladakh and the Indo-Pak border seeing live exchange of fire over the last few days, both the LOC (the Line of Control which separates India from Pakistan as the de facto border) and the LAC (the Line of Actual Control which separates India from China as the de facto border) are in an abnormal state. For India therefore, there is little doubt that a two-front strategic threat now emanates from both the LOC and the LAC. This is probably the first time in independent India that this has come about. Some go as far as to say that there might be a three-front threat, given the linkages developing between the Pak and Bangladesh armies, but I will desist from going there.

It will be interesting to see how China deals with the emerging crisis between India and Pakistan. On the one hand, China is Pakistan’s all weather friend and it is easy to see unconditional support for Pakistan coming from China. On the other hand, there is an ensuing thaw in Sino-Indian ties and India will want to know whether China is willing to risk it all by throwing its weight behind Pakistan in the unfortunate eventuality of hostilities breaking out between India and Pakistan.

How the Trump Administration reacts to all of this is crucial as well. Two statements by President Trump may be revelatory in this regard. One, when PM Modi was visiting DC in February this year and in the joint press conference with President Trump, a question was posed about events in Bangladesh. While the question was directed at President Trump, he responded by saying that PM Modi will take the question on Bangladesh. In reaction to the events in Pahalgam, President Trump called the terrorist attacks a “bad one”, mischaracterised the Kashmir issue as going on for 1000 years and when asked whether he would intervene, President Trump declined and said “they (meaning India and Pakistan) will get it figured out one way or the other.” With US focusing its efforts on resolving the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, pursuing the tariff war and monitoring the emerging threats in Indo-Pacific, it should hardly surprise anyone that the US may neither have the inclination nor the bandwidth to tackle conflict in South Asia, should it arise.

The bottomline therefore is this. The continuing stand-off in Ladakh and recent events in Pahalgam have brought India’s strategic focus back to the LOC and the LAC. India will need to rely both on military deterrence and nimble diplomacy to ensure that what is at present a two-front threat does not escalate into a two-front war in the future.

The US Department of Defense is periodically tasked with preparation of an interim guidance in the form of a memo. It is usually classified and the last known one that I could see online was four years ago. Since this memo is secret and dated March 2025, the only way to get hold of its contents is through newspaper leaks.

The leaked features of the memo, which have not been denied by the US Department of Defense, if true, indicates major shifts in American Defence posturing and strategy. This was only to be expected what with the new Trump adminstration ringing in enormous changes in American foreign and security policy. Given below are the main aspects of the new defense doctrine along with comments:

(1) China is the American Defense Department’s sole pacing threat, and denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan — while simultaneously defending the US homeland — is the Department’s sole pacing scenario.

Comment: This is the first time the US is placing the Chinese threat in Taiwan alongside and on the same level as homeland security. This plus the tariff war unleashed against China ( US has imposed massive triple digit tariffs against Chinese imports, even while not sparing its friends and allies) makes it abundantly clear who the US thinks its main adversary is. Additionally, there will be a heightened focus on bunker-busting bombs and other weapons designed to destroy reinforced targets, which could be crucial in a conflict over Taiwan. The Washington Post noted that these strategic shifts are part of a broader effort to deter China from launching a surprise attack, often referred to as a “fait accompli” seizure of Taiwan.

(2)   US will pressure allies in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia to spend more on defense to take on the bulk of the deterrence role against threats from Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Comment: It is clear that the US will at best provide a “backstop” (if that) and leave the job of providing Europe’s security to Europe. The big change therefore seems to be a reduced focus in Europe, no question about that.

More crucially, Japan and South Korea should take note: the main job of deterring North Korea (which is supported by China and more recently by Russia) falls on them.

On Iran, the role of deterrence would fall presumably on Israel and Saudi Arabia. Again, these propositions, if confirmed to be true, would indicate that the Middle East would likely get higher priority than Europe in the American scheme of things.

(3) The Trump administration also has a vision for the Indo-Pacific region. It wants Taiwan to sharply increase its defense outlays. The administration also wants to work with Japan and other allies to enhance deterrence against China. The Pentagon’s new plan involves increasing the deployment of submarines, bombers, unmanned ships, and specialized Army and Marine Corps units in the Indo-Pacific.

Comment: Presumably, the deterrence against China by co-opting its allies and partners would be in addition to its own defence posturing against China. US treating Japan and South Korea more favourably than Europe may also be explained by this.

(4) US attaches high importance to protecting American interests in the Western Hemisphere, such as ensuring access to the Panama Canal and combatting drug and human trafficking cartels in Latin America. The White House, according to the leaked memo, has asked for credible military options from the Pentagon to ensure unfettered access to the Panama Canal.

Comment: Monroe doctrine 2.0

(5) US believes that European countries should play a greater role in dealing with the Ukraine situation.

Comment: If the US means this, then Europe should be more involved in the mediation talks being held with Russia and Ukraine. The EU Commission President Von der Leyen is yet to meet President Trump. And its foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas was basically stood up by Secretary Marco Rubio when she went to Washington some weeks ago, causing her to miss the trip of the EU College of Commissioners to India.

None of the above should come as a total surprise. President Trump and his cabinet colleagues have been hinting at all of the above, either implicitly or sometimes even explicitly. Still, if the secret memo is true (and there is no reason to believe it is not), then it has the potential to fundamentally recast the international strategic landscape.

Two significant trilateral meetings went almost unnoticed and under the radar. The first one was a meeting between the Trade Ministers of Japan, Korea and China in Seoul on March 30. The second one, equally important, was a meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Japan and Korea, along with the American Secretary of State in Brussels on April 3. While other countries were posturing, Japan and Korea were quietly engaged in strategic hedging of the highest order to protect and promote their national interest. The first meeting took place before the announcement of the Trump tariffs on April 2 and the second one just after. How is that for timing?

The meeting of the Trade Ministers between Japan, South Korea and China on March 30 in Seoul was significant for a variety of reasons. First, they were meeting in this format after five years. Second, the Japanese-Korean rapprochement is now here to stay and it is extraordinary that the two countries which have such serious and unresolved political differences, have managed to put it aside and cooperate for mutual benefit. Third, this meeting was in anticipation of the Trump announcement and clearly, decisions by the Trump administration are at one level pushing powers in Asia to coooperate more among themselves. Indeed, the three trade ministers agreed to speed up negotiations toward a free trade agreement (FTA) between their countries, something they have not been able to do since the negotiations started in 2012. The Joint Statement wished a free, fair, comprehensive, high-quality and mutually beneficial FTA betweeen China, Japan and South Korea. It is as if these three countries second-guessed the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump. The Joint Statement then went on to talk of the importance of WTO reform, of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement of which all three countries are full members) and most crucially enhancing cooperation on maintaining stable supply chains. This last mentioned point is important in view of the disruption to global supply chains caused by the tariffs announced by President Trump. Word is that a trilateral summit level meeting of the Heads of State/Government of China, Korea and Japan will take place before the end of the year. It is therefore abundantly clear that regardless of Trum’s tariffs, regional integration between select partners in Asia is continuing apace.

If Japan and Korea engineered only the above meeting, significant as it is, it would have been understandable. But in a masterclass on strategic hedging, the Japanese and Korean Foreign Ministers also met with the American Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Brussels on April 3. This meeting was thus soon after the announcement of the reciprocal tariffs by President Trump which shook the world. The Joint Statement issued after this trilateral meeting was, arguably, the polar opposite of the one issued after the meeting of the Trade Ministers referred to above. The statement begins by talking of shared principles including rule of law in the Indo-Pacific. The Secretary and Foreign Ministers strongly opposed unlawful maritime claims or any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the waters of the Indo-Pacific, including the South China Sea. They emphasized their commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific and ensuring international law as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, including freedoms of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the sea, prevails.

The Ministers also emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity for the international community.  They expressed concern about provocative actions, particularly the recent military drills around Taiwan, and called for an end to further destabilizing actions. They encouraged the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues and opposed any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo, including by force or coercion even while expressing support for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in appropriate international organizations.

The American Secretary of State and the two Foreign Ministers then emphasized the importance of NATO’s cooperation with Indo-Pacific Partners to ensure the ability to swiftly respond to security developments and challenges in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions. They neither named China nor Russia but you would have to be daft to miss it. Crucially, Marco Rubio reiterated American ironclad commitments to the defense of Japan and South Korea , backed by America’s unmatched military strength, including its nuclear capabilities.  All sides confirmed that U.S.-extended deterrence commitments to Japan and South Korea remain critical to the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region. The three Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to bolstering defense and deterrence by advancing robust security cooperation and strengthening their respective defense capabilities.

It is hard to overlook the Trump Administration’s difference in approach to their allies in Asia, as opposed to their allies in Europe. It would seem that US is much more forthcoming about respecting its security commiments towards its Asian allies. This issue is worth watching in the days and months ahead, as President Trump reveals his cards about how he will eventually handle the People’s Republic of China.

But for now, just marvel at the way two middle powers from Asia i.e. Japan and South Korea, have gone about enhancing their strategic options and protecting their national interest. These countries have had best of both the worlds i.e. flourishing trade and economic ties with China on the one hand and an iron-clad security commitment from the US, on the other. They are not about to give up on this ideal arrangement anytime soon.

It can now be said without fear of contradiction that a Sino-Indian rapprochement is well and tuly under way. In June 2020, when border clashes occurred in the Himalayas and India lost 25 of its soldiers, the relationship between the two countries sunk to an all time low. It broke a long and uninterrupted peace maintained at the border for 45 long years. The incident led to mutual recrimination with both sides accusing each other of having broken bilateral agreements to maintain peace and tranquility at the border. A period of chill followed with no top level meetings between the leaders and specific measures taken which adversely affected people-to-people ties, air connectivity, trade and investment. This Sino-Indian estrangement also spilled over into multilateral fora like the UN, WTO, BRICS, UNFCCC and SCO.

The first sign of Sino-Indian thaw was the famous “pull aside” between PM Modi and President Xi at the Bali G20 Summit in November 2022. The move for this initial rapprochement was ostensibly made by China. While the “pull aside” meeting happened in November 2022, the Chinese Foreign Ministry talked about it for the first time only in July 2023 and stated that Prime Minister  Modi and President Xi Jinping had reached a significant “consensus” on stabilizing India-China bilateral relations during the G20 meeting in Bali back in November 2022. According to the Chinese statement, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to not posing a threat to each other and recognized each other’s development opportunities. The statement went on to say that the focus was on implementing this consensus into specific policies and actions across various departments to foster strategic mutual trust and cooperation. The ultimate goal, the statement concluded, was to steer India-China relations back to a path of healthy and stable development at the earliest. The Indian side, taken somewhat by surprise, sheepishly clarified the situation in a media briefing, confirming that both Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping exchanged pleasantries and spoke about the need to stabilize the bilateral relations during a dinner hosted by the Indonesian President on the margins of the G20 Summit.

Yet another meeting between Modi and XI took place on the margins of the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg in August 2023. The Chinese said this time that the meeting was requested by the Indian side. Be that as it may, the two leaders appear to have agreed in principle to “de-escalate” border tensions. This was a clear message from the two leaders to the ground level negotiators.

Following this, a flurry of meetings happened in late 2024 and early 2025 between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and Minister Jaishankar as well as the National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. In September 2024, Minister Jaishankar said, to the mild surprise of observers, that India has made progress in its border negotiations with China with about 75% of disengagement problems sorted out. In October 2024, there was a full fledged meeting between Modi and Xi on the margins of the BRICS summit meeting in Kazan, Russia and they welcomed steps to resume dialogue between their countries. The two leaders appear to have agreed to boost cooperation and resolve differences betweeen their respective countries.

By December 2024, when the National Security Adviser Ajit Doval met Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the time was ripe for some kind of understanding. So, it was no surprise when announcement was made on a six point consensus, which was put out by the chinese side first:

>Positively evaluated the resolution in eastern Ladakh and agreed to work for peace on the ground

> Commitment for a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable package solution on the border issue

> Strengthen confidence building measures

>Resume Kailash Yatra, river cooperation and border trade

>Strengthen SRs (Special Representatives) mechanism , diplomatic and military talks mechanism

> SRs to meet again in India in 2025

The latest phase in this saga relates to PM Modi’s podcast to Lex Friedman and his remarks on Sino-Indian ties. While underlining that both China and India were ancient civilisational states, PM said that they had always learnt from each other. Remarkably, PM Modi says that if you look back several centuries, there was really no history of conflict between the two countries. By choosing to take a long view of bilateral ties and not focus on the 1962 Sino-Indian war or the Ladakh incidents of 2020, was the PM trying to send a message? He nevertheless acknowedged that differences were common between neighbours and even within a family. He said India’s objective was to ensure that competition between India and China, which was natural, did not veer into conflict. Predictably, the Chinese foreign office spokesperson enthusiastically welcomed the remarks of PM Modi and reciprocated the sentiment to work for stronger bilateral cooperation.

The most difficult question to answer at this stage is why China chose initial rapprochement with India and why India seems to have grabbed it with both hands. It is interesting that a lot of these diplomatic moves were made before it was clear that Trump would be the next President of the United States. So, prima facie, Trump was not the main reason.

Firstly, from China’s perspective it is hard to avoid the impression that this was “course correction” on their part after the bloody events of Ladakh in June 2020. China is now a leading military power and it beggars belief that India would attack it with a view to gaining territory. That might explain a lot. Second, it is in China’s abiding interest to have suitably normal ties with India, while it concentrates its efforts on meeting its main strategic challenge: the United States and the West. Third, it is now well known that India would have most certainly allowed Huawei and China significant access to the huge Indian market for 5G and data, if Ladakh had not intervened. While China remains a vastly superior economic and technological power, the lure of the Indian market cannot be overlooked, especially if US and EU start restriciting entry of Chinese products and services into their markets. Fourth, India is the only neighbouring country with which China has not settled its land border. Again, it would be in China’s strategic interest to do so, since that will free up its resources for more existential objectives like South China Sea or even Taiwan. Last, it is not in China’s interest to have India as America’s cat’s paw in the Indo-Pacific, regardless of India’s unwillingness to be one. Good ties with India can serve this strategic objective of China’s.

From India’s perspective, the reasons for rapprochement with China are not far to seek. First among the reasons would be the Sino-Russian entente and the consequent diminution in India’s strategic space. A head-on clash with China would not help matters for India in this regard. Second and quite bluntly, India cannot afford a long war of attrition on its border with China. Indeed, India will seek to remove the large number of Chinese and Indian troops on both sides of the border asap. It is only then that full normalcy can be declared by both sides. Third, even during Biden’s time the US had a dualism to its China policy. A part of the US deep state was confrontational vis-a-vis China considering it as a “pacing challenge”. Another part felt that the US should cooperate with China where possible and manage its rise. This has accentuated under Trump who actually embodies this dualism and is yet to decide which side of the argument he will fall. With this in mind, India appears to have enthusiastically welcomed the thaw in ties with China. Fourth, there has also been a fair amount of pressure from our economic operators about loosening the restrictions placed on our trade and economic ties with China. Policy makers, expecially in eocnomic ministries, have also argued for encouraging selective Chinese investment as being essential for India’s development. Lastly, what China and India are doing is really strategic hedging of their respective bets. You can be sure other countries are doing exactly the same, leading to multiple strategic hedging as a policy to counter geopolitical turbulence.

There is just one other matter which needs emphasis. India has stated emphatically that full normalisation of bilateral ties in all areas, depends on normalcy at the border. It is of course for India (and China) to decide what constitutes normalcy at the border. PM Modi in his podcast says that both countries are working to restore ties to what they were before 2020. That should give us an idea of what India is thinking about. China may or may not necessarily see things this way. One way of breaking this logjam is to have a roadmap with clear benchmarks for resolution of the border “package” with definitive timelines. Simultaneously, there can also be a roadmap for restoration of full normalcy in trade, investment, connectivity, people-to-people relations in bilateral ties. These two roadmaps can run in parallel. The fact is the border issue has poisoned bilateral ties for too long and cannot be left for the next generation of Indians and Chinese to resolve. China as the bigger and more powerful neighbour should summon the necessary political will and take the initiative on the border issue. At the end of the day, that alone will be the most important confidence building measure in the chequered history of the Dragon and the Elephant.

Consider this for a minute. Soon after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and its newly found independence, Ukraine possessed the third largest nuclear arsenal after US and Russia. It reportedly had as many as 5000 nuclear warheads and intercontiental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Imagine if Ukraine had kept those weapons, would Putin have dared to do what he did in February 2022? That said, Ukraine may have found it difficult to keep them for two reasons. First, it was not just expensive but the keys for launching the nuclear weapons were with Moscow. Second, it faced serious economic and social issues which were more of a priority than nuclear weapons at the time. Ukraine then trusted the Great Powers at the time and signed the so called Budapest Memorandum whose signatories, apart from Ukraine, were US, UK and Russia. This memorandum pretty much guaranteed the territorial integrity and security of Ukraine including its borders. But again, look what happened. So much for guarantees of great powers. It is a matter of supreme irony that Ukraine is still seeking security guarantees from the US, after what the latter has done to the transatlantic relationship.

One scholar clearly foresaw the problem Ukraine faces today. As far back as 1993, John Mearsheimer argued that it was imperative for Ukraine to hold onto nuclear weapons to maintain peace as these nuclear weapons would be a deterrent and would ensure that Russians, who have a history of bad relations with Ukraine, do not move to reconquer it . How prescient was that?

Ukraine’s story will have huge implications for the aspirations of countries to possess nuclear weapons. They will now seriously weigh the pros and cons of going nuclear. That, if it happens, will have serious repercussions for the NPT and the exisiting non-proliferation regime.

The problem is compounded by President Trump’s threat to withdraw the nuclear security umbrealla for Europe, if they do not meet conditions such as significantly increasing their defence expenditure as a proportion of GDP. The French leader Charles de Gaulle may have anticipated this several years back. It is interesting to ask why France got the bomb when it was already covered by the American nuclear umbrella? Quite simply because French President Charles de Gaulle simply didn’t trust Washington to live up to its security guarantees. Extended deterrence was a sham, he felt, and for Paris to be truly secure, it had no choice but to acquire a nuclear capability of its own. As he put it in 1963, “American nuclear weapons remain the essential guarantee of world peace. . . But the fact remains that American nuclear power does not necessarily respond immediately to all the eventualities concerning Europe and France. So, we decided to equip ourselves with an atomic force that is unique to us.” Again, how prescient was that?

With the US behaving the way it is under Trump, the Europeans have started openly discussing extension of nuclear deterrence based on weapons possessed by France and the UK. Germany’s new leader Merz was the first to openly talk about it. Others like Poland have said it is definitely worth looking at. The trouble is the French “force de frappe” as they call it, is exclusively and uniquely French and there is no consensus in France to share this with others. The far right leader Marine Le Pen has already ruled out this possibility. There is also the question of how much UK will be involved in extending its nuclear deterrence to countries of continental Europe, and how comfortable they will be with that. Poland, fast emerging as a major European defence power, has also differeing views on this. The Polish PM (the other Donald as it were) Tusk stated in parliament recently that there has been a profound change in American geopolitics and he is happy for Poland to look at possibilities related to possession of nuclear weapons. The Polish President Duda however remains a steadfast fan of Trump and has argued in favour of American nuclear weapons being stationed in Poland which could act as a deterrence against Russia. Either way, it is fair to conclude that countries like Poland are scrambling to look at nuclear weapons. In all of this, no one is even asking the question of how countries like Poland can acquire nuclear weapons unless they withdraw from the “venerable” Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty!

Poland is not the only power seeking nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has for long felt that it should have nuclear weapons, especially if Iran is on the verge of getting one. Turkey, which hosts U.S. nuclear weapons through NATO’s sharing program, signaled a policy shift in 2019 when President Erdogan criticized foreign powers for dictating Turkey’s ability to build its own nuclear weapon. Turkey’s growing partnership with Russia in nuclear energy could meanwhile provide it with the enrichment expertise needed to eventually do so. South Korea is another candidate with 70 per cent of the population supporting the development of nuclear weapons, obviously in reponse to the North Korean threat. Japan is toying with the idea but public support is still not forthcoming. In any case, Japan has the wherewithal to quickly go nuclear if it decides to do so. It very recently did a volte-face on the full use of nuclear power, so do not rule out anything yet.

One or more of the above countries going nuclear could open the floodgates for others. It will then lead to a situation where the non-proliferation regime as we know it will unravel quite quickly. The political scientist Kenneth Waltz is said to have famously observed that when it comes to spread of nuclear weapons, more may actually be better. The world may be about to find out!

Two treaties provide the legal basis for what is commonly referred to as the European project. These are the “Treaty of Rome” (1957) and the ” Maastricht Treaty” (1992). In view of President Trump’s recent actions, it is pertinent to ask what the chances are of the European project surviving and continuing in its present form.

But first, what is the European project? It is interesting that when the Treaty of Rome established the European Economic Community in 1957, there was no mention of defence and security. That is because in 1949, NATO was set up by the US along with eleven allies: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the US. So, it was well understood that the European project at that time was a political and economic one, not a military one. The Treaty of Rome therefore, talks of a common market, common economic and competition policies and political unification. This last mentioned point is important. The Treaty of Rome which established the European Community had as its objective stated in the preamble: Determined to lay the foundations of an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe. This has since become a loaded expression in terms of European integration and how much countries should surrender a bit of their sovereignty to Brussels. Indeed, one of the arguments in favour of Brexit was precisely this “ever closer union”, a term vehemently objected to by Brexiteers. The irony is the expression was about ever closer union of peoples, not administrations or bureaucracies.

It is however the Maastricht Treaty, signed in 1992, that fleshed out the concept of the European project and in that sense updated the Treaty of Rome. This Treaty outlined a three pillar system: economic integration, common foreign & security policy and cooperation in Justice and Home Affairs. The Treaty not only established the European Union (as opposed to the European Economic Community) but also set the foundation for a common currency, common citizenship, common agricultural & industrial policy, common European parliament and most of all, a common foreign and security policy. This had a profound impact on European integration which has since come to be known, in layman’s terms, as the European project.

It is interesting to note that the European project made huge advances in every single area, namely, common currency (euro), common citizenship (Schengen), common agricultural & industrial policy and of course a common European parliament. Where the European project did not make sufficient progress is in the area of common foreign and security policy. There were substantive reasons for this. In 1954 a European Defence Community was attempted, but the French parliament refused to ratify it, ensuring the proposal was dead on arrival. Individual countries like France but also the UK (at that time) had nuclear deterrence and were keen to safeguard it. While they were members of NATO, they were not willing to completely submit to a supranational authority, when it came to defence. Meanwhile, the US underwrote the security expenditure of the EU to a substantial extent, cementing the transatlantic alliance.

As countries of Europe started taking the American security umbrella as a given, they started implementing the other aspects of the European project in full. Foreign and in particular, security policy, consequently lagged behind. Kissinger is reported to have famously asked what is the telephone number of the person in EU that he can call if there is a crisis. In view of all this, it has become common to call EU, an economic giant but a military pigmy. European states (not all but many of them) also built a massive and expensive social safety net for their citizens when it came to healthcare, education and pension.

President Trump, in just a matter of few weeks, has called into question the entire European project. He has done this mainly by threatening to withdraw the American security umbrella which has protected Europe from 1949 onwards. As if to prove he is not bluffing, he has completely sidelined Europe when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine (by talking directly to Russia and Ukraine) and has threatened to stop military and financial aid to Ukraine. For the EU, this has been a rude shock and has sent them scurrying for action. Partly in response to this, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a European defence plan i.e. ” ReArm Europe” amounting to a whopping 800 billion euros. It remains to be seen how the Member States will react to this. For one thing, this will mean suspending EU’s Stability and Growth Pact rules which limit budget deficits of Member States to 3 per cent of GDP, limit national debt to 60 per cent of GDP and promote fiscal discipline. Even countries like France are already close to 5 per cent of GDP as budget deficit. With this plan for a defence fund of 800 billion euros, all fiscal discipline will go out of the window. The other big change that Trump’s policy has brought about in Europe is on the nuclear question. The new German Chancellor Merz has already requested that the French nuclear deterrence be extended to his country. French President Macron has stated in response that while the French nuclear deterrence is comprehensive, sovereign and entirely French, he is open to discussing the question of extending this deterrence to allies in Europe. Far-right French leader Marine Le Pen has vehemently objected to this, thus exposing the faultlines that are likely to occur.

American leaders like Trump and Vance firmly believe the bloated welfare state in Europe is made possible by and is in fact financed because of the US security umbrella. They are therefore determined to pull back the security umbrella, substantially, if not wholly. It is also true that many Europeans will agree that expenditure on their welfare state is excessive and must be scaled back. The question is if the proposed European defence plan takes up most of the monetary resources available, then there will be very little left for the welfare state and consequently, for the European project as it was originally envisaged.

Europe truly confronts a hinge moment in its history.

So, the all important encounter between Trump and Modi is over. On one end of the spectrum, many have called it a masterclass by Modi on how to deal with Trump. Yet others, fewer in number, have said the power dynamic between the two leaders is unpredictable and it is good to keep in mind that India had made smart, pre-emptive concessions to avoid the situation getting out of hand. But all things considered, there was no blood on the floor after the meeting and when compared to how the EU, Ukraine, Mexico and Canada are being treated by Trump, India can count its blessings.

The Indo-American Joint Statement is the first one I can remember in recent times where there is no mention of India’s candidature of UNSC and American backing for the same. This has less to do with India and more to do with Trump’s disdain for multilateralism in general and UN in particular. India will nevertheless need to draw appropriate conclusions from this. UNSC reform looks even more impossible under Trump. We may have to rely more and more on templates like Quad, IMEEC, I2U2 and triangular cooperation groupings like the ones we have with Australia/France and UAE/France. The rest of the emphasis in the Joint Statement is on defence, technology and trade. The acronyms COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accerlerated Commerce and Technology) , ASIA (Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance) , Mission 500 (doubling Indo-American bilateral trade to $ 500 billion by 2030) and TRUST (Transforming the Relationship using Strategic Technology) sum it up quite well. The fact remains it is India which needs to constantly keep pushing the US to realize the strategic objectives behind each of these acronyms.

A word on immigration and trade. These two will be problematic areas that deserve delicate handling by both at the leadership level. Illegal Emigration can never be in India’s interest and it is commendable that PM Modi has taken a stance on this issue. I remember when I was Ambassador in Bahrain, India’s view on this issue was slightly different. Even legal migration to the US and the West will present significant challenges for India and we must be ready for it.

On trade, India must grab the opportunity for a deal offered by the US side with both hands. That really is the only way out with the US, which is a large export market for India. Separately, we must also conclude the FTA with the EU. International Trade henceforth will be on a non-MFN, reciprocal and strategic basis and I am going to stick my neck out and say something completely heretic: there is no good reason for India alone to be WTO-compliant, when the major players i.e. US, China and the EU are playing ducks and drakes with the multilateral trading system.

Trump’s conversation with Modi appears to suggest that India may get a freer hand in dealing with both Pakistan and Bangladesh. So, India must not squander this opportunity and the window that has been presented to it. More crucially, it is Trump’s relationship with Russia that may actually secure more strategic space for India. The only exception to this enhanced strategic space for India, may be the way Trump eventually deals with China. He is still delightfully vague about how the US will proceed to deal with China. But there has been a fair bit of writing on how Trump is broadly inclined to accept spheres of influence. If true, India should worry about it. According to this hypothesis, Trump would be content with the US playing a predominant role in the Western Hemisphere (and perhaps the Western Pacific), allow Russia to have its own sphere of influence in parts of Europe and most significantly, allow China its own sphere of influence in East Asia. This will likely lead to a more assertive China on its disputed border with India. South Asia by itself is not important enough for Trump in the larger scheme of things, but he will not be opposed to a significant Indian presence. Which is why India needs to get its act together in its neighbourhood preferably going alone if it can or else, acting in concert with like-minded powers. That said, India should expect to come up against Chinese shenanigans both on its border and in its neighbourhood. This will doubtless pose a major strategic challenge for India.

It is not that Trump campaigned in poetry and is now governing in prose. He has been true to his word, most of the time. He threatened tariffs on allies and foes. He said he would pull out of multilateral institutions. He stated ominously that he would get rid of government departments altogether. His cabinet nominees have been outlandish as promised by him. In both the Middle East and Ukraine, we are yet to see Trump’s full hand. But what little he has said about Gaza has been nothing short of outrageous. All this in less than a month of assuming office. There are decades when nothing happens and then weeks when decades happen. 4 more years of Trump seems like an eternity.

The more interesting analysis, preliminary because it is still early days, is to look at two aspects of Trump’s decision making. One, is he always getting his way? If not, what is his strike rate? Two, is he beating a strategic retreat in some instances? If so, what is making him do it? This tentative analysis should be interesting to all of Trump’s partners so that they can be better equipped to deal with his chaotic leadership style over the next four years.

First, the question of imposing tariffs. Tariffs were announced with great fanfare on Mexico, Canada and China. Bizarrely, Mexico and Canada were subject to higher tariffs than China, which ironically has been declared “the” principal rival and threat to the US. But, after tough, last minute negotiations, Trump decided to give both Mexico and Canada a month’s reprieve. The main reason was not to give the friendly countries of Mexcico and Canada more time, but because the Wall Street stocks tumbled and reacted very negatively to the announcement of tariffs on these two countries. The Wall Street then moderated its losses once Trump gave these two countries more time. This could not have been lost on Trump’s international partners. Lesson one: Trump’s actions are not irreversible and he listens to the stock market and the domestic economy more than anyone else.

With China, it played somewhat differently. Trump did impose a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese exports to the US. But China, in what is seen as a highly strategic riposte, put export controls on critical metals such as Tungsten, Bismouth, Indium, Molybdenum and Tellurium. Tungsten, in particular, is of huge importance for the US and China supplies 45 per cent of US Tungsten imports. It is clear that China this time was fully prepared for a trade war with the US. Equally, this is a warning to Trump that any action he contemplates against China will hurt both countries. Trump will henceforth need to ask himself the question as to whether his country can afford the pain. Lesson two: Trump respects power and that is why he likes his “friend” Xi Jinping. Trump is expected to talk to Xi Jinping soon, he knows there is no other option with China.

Trump’s actions aimed at undermining the multilateral institutions can be expected to continue, mainly because it is relatively “cost-free” for him. So, his pulling the US out of the Paris Climate Accords, the World Health Organization, initiating sanctions against International Criminal Court personnel, withdrawal from the OECD global tax deal and ceasing henceforth to participate in the UN Human Rights Council will all sound the death knell of multilateralism as we know it. He may also be happy to see the WTO wither away. Lesson three: Trump is happy to punch opponents who cannot push back.

While the Senate and the Congress appear supine vis-a-vis Trump, the judiciary is showing some signs of fighting back. Thus, in cases involving Trump attempting to freeze federal funding, get rid of federal workers or end birthright citizenship, the Courts have stepped in and put Trump’s plans on hold. While it is not clear that the Courts can permanently veto Trump, at least there is serious opposition to him. But if these cases find their way to the Supreme Court, Trump having packed the top court with a conservative majority may eventually have his way. Lesson four: there are still some constituencies in America which are showing spunk. Trump will doubtless target them in due course.

US may have got its way with Panama, but that is seriously not a power play. A bigger test will come when Trump turns his attention to EU with tariffs and his claims on Greenland. Lesson five: Trump is motion in perpetuity. He believes in keeping all countries off guard, big or small, friend or foe.

With some other issues, Trump is as mercantilist as they come. On Ukraine, he has made it clear that he is more interested in the critical minerals that it possesses, than in any moral argument involving the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Things could not be clearer to Russia. Lesson six: Trump’s ultimate mantra is show me the colour of the money.

The Middle East is a quagmire that sucks in even the shrewdest American Presidents. Trump has shocked everyone with his proposal to evacuate Gaza and then develop it into a “riviera”. If only wishes were horses. Almost no Arab country has welcomed his proposal. Israel may love it but even it knows this proposal is dead on arrival. That may not stop Trump and Netanyahu and therein lies a big danger for the Middle East. Lesson seven: His first trip will be to Saudi Arabia where he is seeking one trillion dollars as investment in the US. Rest of the things do not matter to him so expect him to completely forget about the proposal to evacuate Gaza. He is not wedded to any of his proposals in perpetuity so he can walk back from them at any time of his choosing.

What of India? Well, so far so good. Our PM will go to Washington and will hopefully work his magic on Trump. We have also been smart in taking some pre-emptive measures, whether it is accepting illegal immigrants back to our country or reducing the customs duties on items of interest to the US. India should continue to cultivate Trump and avoid getting into his crosshairs. Final lesson: lie low, hide your strength and bide your time. Easier said than done. Just ask China!

We now have enough initial and substantive evidence to try and make sense of what the Trump administration might adopt as its basic foreign policy doctrine. The following broad principles suggest themselves:

(a) Disinclination to prosecute existing wars abroad and opposition to commencing new ones.

(b) Making America a manufacturing and industrial power again, by fair means or foul.

(c) Cracking down on illegal immigration through dramatic gestures such as deportation. Selective and regulated legal immigration where required.

(d) Will no longer have key alliances based on common values, such as EU or even G7. Instead, US will have a number of transactional relationships which it will aim to exploit to achieve its foreign and security policy objectives.

Based on the above, Trump may be expected to take positions outlined below on some of the most critical issues facing the world order.

NATO: Secretary of State designate Marco Rubio in his Senate confirmation hearing stated that the US will continue to support the alliance but that it expected the Europeans to spend more money. This is unsurprising. But Rubio went on to add that the US should be a “backstop to aggression in Europe” rather than a “bedrock to the continent’s security”. This is a paradigm shift since the end of World War II and will not be lost on the Europeans. How this will play out in terms of pulling out some American troops from the continent, formation of an European defence force and defence spending by EU countries, all of this needs close watching.

Ukraine: On the war in Ukraine, Rubio stated that it is time for the US to be realistic, something sure to cause much angst in Europe. Rubio confirmed what has already been known for sometime: the war in Ukraine has become one of attrition. He added, significantly, that both Russia and Ukraine will be ultimately required to make concessions. Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg has already made known his views on the subject, which the Europeans do not neccesarily like. But they do not have much choice in the matter. Transatlantic ties are set for a roller coaster ride. But things may not reach breaking point; EU will simply have to cough up more concessions to the Americans and accept American hegemonic power.

Middle East: If the ceasefire deal in Gaza goes through (Israel is expected to relent after last minute objections), it seems clear where the credit belongs. Trump’s statement, amounting to bluster, that if there is no deal there will be “hell to pay” for Hamas seems to have helped. But more important, Israel seems to have relented under pressure from Trump. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff appears to have read the riot act to Netanhayu. The Qatari negotiator, significantly, said that the deal agreed to has exactly been the same one on the table for months and hinted that it is Israel which had objected all along. Phases two and three of the deal will doubtless be more contentious but Trump seems capable of displaying “tough love” to Israel, something Biden was incapable of. Trump will most certainly push for a Saudi-Israel normalization which actually opens up possibilities for a compromise on the Palestinian issue, not least because the Saudis cannot justify normalization with Israel without some concrete progress on Palestine. Blinken has spoken at length about how a Palestinian State can potentially come about; ironically, Trump may actually end up succeeding in this regard where others have failed.

China: The latest telephonic conversation between Xi Jinping and Trump ( it will be interesting to know if Xi initiated it or Trump) suggests that the latter wishes to avoid confrontation and prefers to do a deal with the former. Xi Jinping was invited by Trump for his inauguration and the former declined. Yet, Trump has now signalled his eagerness to travel to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping. Purely on grounds of psychology, round one goes to Xi Jinping. There are two interesting statements attributed to Trump on Taiwan. One in his first term and I paraphrase it: Taiwan is like two feet from China; if China chooses to invade Taiwan, there is not a fucking thing we can do about it! The second statement more recently, and again I paraphrase: Xi Jinping will not invade Taiwan, because he thinks I am crazy and unpredictable! The million dollar question: Can unpredictability stemming from perceived insanity count for effective foreign policy? Only time will tell. We knew all along that Trump will struggle with two instincts: Manage China through his ostensible dealmaking prowess or frontally take on China showing how strong he is to his domestic constituency. For now though, it is the former Trump who is showing up. Rubio said what he had to say about China at the Senate confirmation hearing calling it “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted”; in actual practice, that will make no damn difference to his Boss.

Trade: Rubio was right in saying that the US will pull back from Free Trade Agreements and restore the focus on American manufacturing. The US domestic market will be ruthlessly used as leverage to extract reciprocal concessions, from friends and foes alike. On tech and critical minerals, de-risking from China may continue but with key modifications. The idea of a “small yard, high fence” may be set aside, if for no other reason than for people like Musk. Instead, Trump has hinted that he may welcome Chinese investment and technology into the US; indeed, he might suggest to Xi Jinping this is the best way to access the American market. He will, in effect, tell China to help US become the factory of the world. Whether Xi Jinping will fall for it in its entirety, is another matter. The WTO will find it difficult to survive another Trump term. It will languish further and render itself irrelevant. The rest of the world can cry itself hoarse on the integrity of the multilateral trading system and the need to reform it. Trump will not give a damn.

India: It is difficult to fathom where India figures in Trump’s scheme of things. It would seem India is not a high priority for Trump; but that may have to do with India’s lack of sheer hard power; after all, Trump values that more than anything else. A bunch of Ambassadors/ Special Envoys have been announced, but none for India so far. One hopes the Quad summit will be held in India when Trump can make a State Visit with pomp and circumstance. Still, India will be enlisted for support by US vis-a-vis China and in that context, Quad may be expected to flourish. Vietnam is similarly placed like India and faces pressure on the trade front from the US. How Vietnam handles the US may have lessons for India. India must play the “wait and watch” game without appearing too anxious; indeed, benign neglect by the US may be no bad thing for India, allowing it space and time for achieving economic and military strength through tough reforms.

United Nations: While Rubio expressed American support for NATO, he said no such thing about the United Nations. Indeed, on UN, his comments were conspicuous by its absence. The appointment of Elise Stefanik as US Ambassador to UN in New York complicates things. She is a known critic of the international organization and in the past has argued for a “complete re-assessment” of American funding for the UN. Antonio Guterres cannot be too thrilled at the prospect.

Era of multiple strategic hedging: Even before Trump, countries were hedging their bets since the liberal international order was on its last legs and a messy multipolar one was taking its place. What Trump brings to this potent mix is more unpredictability and more opacity. This will inevitably lead all powers, big and samll, to hunker down and hedge their bets even more. Vietnam is the best example of how this is done in practice. The Vietnamese had succeeded in inviting first Joe Biden and then Xi Jinping all in the last quarter of 2024. Now they wish to invite Trump. India while wishing to build on the excellent momentum in its ties with the US, still wishes to hedge its bets by attempting to improve its poor ties with China. China, for its part, will try and have a working relationship with the US, even while strengthening its ties with the EU. EU, not wishing to put all its eggs in the American basket will improve ties with China and perhaps even with India. And so on and so forth. Welcome to the era of multiple strategic hedging where nothing is stable and nothing remains immutable.

Describing 2024 as the year of massive and widespread conflict might be apt. Some fundamental factors underpinned this sombre development.

First, global military expenditure soared. The top ten countries on this metric are listed below:

United States: $811.6 billion

China: $298 billion

India: $81 billion

Saudi Arabia: $73 billion

Russia: $72 billion

United Kingdom: $70 billion

Germany: $57.8 billion

France: $57 billion

Japan: $53.9 billion

South Korea: $49.6 billion

Global defence spending thus grew by 9% to reach a record USD2.4 trillion, driven, in part by NATO member states boosting budgets in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Non-US NATO members now spend 32% more on defence since Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea. The International Institute for Strategic Studies’ flagship report Military Balance 2024, shows the deteriorating security environment which is exemplified by a mounting number of conflicts, such as the Hamas–Israel war, Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, Azerbaijan’s takeover of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, coups in Niger and Gabon, as well as China’s more assertive manoeuvres around Taiwan, in the South China Sea and elsewhere. The year 2024 confirmed a troubling trend: an increasing reliance on war to address the challenges of a world in flux, seeking to adapt to a new global order. From the Middle East to Ukraine, Sudan, and the Sahel, at least 59 conflicts persist worldwide.

Second and as a corollary, revenues from sales of arms and military services by the 100 largest companies in the industry reached $632 billion in 2023, a real-terms increase of 4.2 per cent compared with 2022, according to data released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), available at www.sipri.org. It proves the old adage, war is good business!

Third, conflict-affected areas across the world have grown 65% since 2021 to encompass 4.6% of the entire global landmass, up from 2.8% three years ago. That is equivalent to 6.15 million km2, nearly double the size of India, that is now afflicted by fighting between or within states, according to the Conflict Intensity Index (CII) issued by The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research.

Fourth, from the widespread human cost and increased migration to the widening of geopolitical fault lines, the damaging economic impacts and threats to international trade and supply chains, the consequences of the upsurge in conflict are globally significant. The spread of violence is mirrored by rising casualty rates, with conflict deaths on course to breach 200,000 by the end of 2024, up 29% on 2021. The UN has also estimated that the number of people displaced by conflict, violence or persecution exceeded over 120 million by the end of April 2024.

Fifth, the Middle East and Ukraine remain the most intense theatres of war, and both have the capacity to escalate. The spread of conflict in these geographies is well documented, in part because of their geopolitical significance. However, the Conflict Intensity Index, which measures the severity of armed conflict at subnational levels across 198 countries, also provides valuable insights into countries and regions that are less well reported on. In total, 27 countries, including the emerging markets of Ecuador, Colombia, Indonesia and Thailand, have experienced a significant increase in risk since 2021.

Sixth, in terms of areas affected by conflict, sub-Saharan Africa has seen a greater expansion than any other region. Africa’s ‘conflict corridor,’ which now spans 4,000 miles from Mali in the west to Somalia in the east, has doubled in size since 2021. As a result, areas affected by conflict in 14
countries across the Sahel and East Africa now equate to around 10% of sub-Saharan Africa’s overall land mass or 2.5 million km2 , more than 10 times the size of the UK.

Seventh, beyond Africa, several other lesser-known conflicts are also contributing to this upswing. The civil war in Myanmar, which has been raging since the 2021 coup d’état, has seen the South-East Asian state fall from the 19th to the 2nd worst performing country. Haiti and Ecuador have similarly chalked up statistically ‘exceptional’ deteriorations on the Conflict Intensity Index amid surging gang violence, which has escalated from criminality to the declaration of internal conflicts.

Finally, from an economic perspective, the cost of conflict can also be devastating. The latest UN estimate is that the war in Ukraine has caused USD152 billion in direct damage and the cost of reconstruction and recovery will reach nearly USD500 billion. The cost of rebuilding Gaza is estimated at over USD80 billion. In addition, the direct and indirect threats to businesses need to be closely monitored. Data from Asset Risk Exposure Analytics (AREA) – which measures the exposure of over 4 million assets of publicly listed companies to political, human rights, climate and environmental risks – shows that corporate exposure to conflict is currently limited. Only 3.68% of the assets of the highest risk sector, oil & gas, are exposed to conflict, but this could change rapidly if conflict in the Middle East escalates. Global supply chains, on the other hand, are more exposed to war-related impacts. Most notably, the disruption to Red Sea maritime trade caused by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking Western shipping shows no sign of ending and has led to increased shipping and insurance costs. The fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine likewise roiled global supply chains, from energy to fertiliser through to agri-commodities.

There is little sign that the recent upsurge in armed conflict – and all the tragedy and challenges that go with it – will dissipate in 2025. Indeed, the situation may get worse before it gets better. Against this backdrop, it is impossible to avoid the deduction that international diplomacy is failing the world. A melancholic 2025 thus awaits us all.