Call it a wave, clean sweep or a Tsunami, the Democrats have won convincingly and may end up flipping not just the House, but also the Senate. This is a significant political moment in the US for a number of reasons:
>President Trump has dominated American politics for a decade. Is this his swan-song or has he still got aces up his sleeve?
>Prsident Trump was not on the ballot, but he did ask the voters to pretend that he was. So it cannot but be interpreted as a vote on his performance for the first two years of his mandate.
>These elections saw some $ 12 Billions being spent on these midterm elections. That is more than what was spent in the presidential election in 2024. It is significant that this did not make too much of a difference in the end.
>The American Congress has hitherto acquiesced in the decisions of President Trump, with some political observers arguing that it has thereby abdicated its responsibility of acting as a check on the President. Will this change and can it now resist the President? Expect investigations to be launched, impose funding restrictions on programmes, issue summons to Cabinet Ministers and may be, even launch impeachment proceedings against the President – though there is very little prospect of impeachment succeeding.
>Some Republican candidates had already distanced themselves from President Trump in their political campaign for the midterms. Will the dissatisfaction with President Trump now boil over in the Republican Party? May be not a civil war, but expect churn in the GOP.
>Lastly, how will this impact the presidential elections due in 2028? Does it provide a shot in the arm for Democrats and lead to introspection on the part of Republicans? Does this make the presidential elections of 2028 wide open?
Domestic politics will play itself out in the coming days and weeks. But it is the impact on America’s foreign policy and geopolitics that should interest the rest of the world.
On this aspect, some observations:
(1) A domestically constrained President in the last term feels, if anything, more free to do things abroad. So, the President’s scope to do good and inflict harm abroad, either remains the same as before or may even increase. We will have to wait and see how this affects the relatively unpredictable occupant of the White House.
(2) Congressional imprimatur has not been sought by successive Presidents for a number of foreign policy initiatives. Obama issued 35 executive orders, George Bush issued 42. But Biden issued 162 executive orders in just one term. President Trump has already issued a whopping 166 executive orders in just two years. So expect rule by executive decree, whether the Congress likes it or not.
(3) The above point matters for the “deals” that the US enters into with its partners abroad. The Climate Change Agreement of Paris was deliberately labelled by the Americans, not as a binding “treaty”, but as a non-binding executive agreement which Obama could then sign without sending it for Congressional approval. This also meant that when President Trump took over, he could withdraw from the above agreement in one day. The Iran deal done by Obama in 2015 was the same story. Hence the current scepticism by the Iranians. Executive agreements concluded by American Presidents can be reversed quite easily by other Presidents. Treaties entered into by the US with congressional approval are much more valid, enduring and crucially, binding. With an adversarial Congress, its imprimatur will most certainly not be forthcoming for President Trump even if he seeks it. So countries around the world will accordingly take note. This might weaken America’s hand in negotiations since the natural instinct of foreign partners will be to try and run out the clock on President Trump.
(4) That said, there is nothing like a lame duck American president when it comes to foreign, security or even trade policy. President Trump will likely continue to do things he did before. Also, does not need to stand for re-election. As President Trump declared even before the disastrous midterm results, he has the veto and the executive powers to do pretty much everything he wishes to do. For example, in June of this year, both the House and the Senate passed a “War Powers Resolution” directing President Trump to end hostilities with Iran. The White House reaction was cryptic: The resolution had no force of law! In September, Congress passed sanctions on Russia with veto-proof majorities. President Trump used a national interest “waiver” to nullify the sanctions. So, expect President Trump to resort to more of this for the remaining two years of his mandate.
(5) China, EU, NATO and India simply did not figure in these midterm polls. To the extent foreign countries figured, it was Israel, Iran and the war in Ukraine to some extent. But that is because relations with these countries had domestic repercussions in terms of cost of living, anti-semitism and voter discontent with America being involved in wars overseas. In many ways, the voter discontent in these elections was mainly due to President Trump not keeping his promise on cost of living and America not gettting involved in unnecessary wars.
(6) America-Israel ties may be at a crossroads, with President Trump announcing on the eve of midterms that foreign aid amounting to some $ 4 billion may cease. But weapons will continue to flow to Israel, with the latter paying for it. The prospects for a solution in Iran may brighten, if only because of the high gas prices for Americans back home. A domestically shackled President Trump may become unshackled and he may well turn peacemaker (in Iran and Ukraine) to claim that elusive Nobel Peace Prize. A pious hope?
(7) One can expect ties with India to follow the same trajectory of incremental improvement that we saw in the last few months. Tariffs may no longer pose the kind of threat they once did and frankly even H1B was not very high on the voter’s list of priorities. Instead, the issues that really mattered in these midterm elections were: cost of living, war in Iran, ties with Israel/plight of Palestinians, AI (opposition to data centers) and interestingly, misuse of power & corruption.
A detailed analysis of these midterm elections will have to wait. But one thing seems clear: the youth and Latinos have been the swing voters in these elections. They were largely responsible for Trump’s election two years ago. They could well be largely responsible for the results now. The MAGA crowd may have abstained, we will have to wait and see the abstention rate.
One last conclusion. America’s resilience should never be in doubt. It is capable of swings and detours like any other country, but its ability to course-correct and bounce back must not be underestimated.
Dr Mohan Kumar is a former Indian Ambassador and the Director General of the Motwani Jadeja Institute for American Studies in OP Jindal Global University. Views are personal.
