France is going through a delicate phase in its history of the so-called Fifth Republic. For one thing, the country heads to crucial polls in May of next year. At the risk of sounding alarmist, these elections could well result in a political earthquake i.e. the election of the far-right National Rally’s leader, Ms Marine Le Pen, as President of the French Republic. Should that come to pass, there will be profound implications not just for France, but for the European Union as a whole.
Just when social peace was needed in the run-up to the above elections, there has been widespread violence following student protests. Student protests in France began last week, innocuously enough, in some provinces where students protested the lack of adequate infrastructure and more important, the lack of sufficient number of teachers. Through social media these protests gained prominence and soon enough, they spread like wildfire. In no time at all, some schools were torched and the police had no choice but to use force against some violent protesters. That led to students getting injured, further exacerbating an already tense situation. The events then took on a political colour when the far-left party (called France Insoumise) led by a firebrand politician Jean Luc Melanchon expressed his total and unconditional support to the protesting students. The far-right leader Marine Le Pen, shrewdly blamed the far-left party for insigating the students but also made the larger point that only her party, when elected, can maintain law and order in France. Pro-establishment politicians had nowhere to hide and were trying hard to douse the fire. It is no exaggeration to say that Macron’s legacy is in serious danger, as rumours swirl that he is eyeing Ursula Von der Lyen’s job as President of the European Commission.
A poll conducted last week showed that the French public disapproves of the Government’s handling of the protests even while blaming the far-left leader Melanchon for inciting the students. Again, it seems to be advantage National Rally and Marine Le Pen. The situation also suits National Rally since its charismatic young leader Mr Jordan Bardella has been accused of anti-semitism by the French press. Bardella has of course strongly denied the accusations, but the paper which originally made the allegation appeared to have some proof. All this has been forgotten in the imbroglio caused by student protests.
As if all this were not enough, France is also experiencing an economic crisis. Borrowing costs have reached their highest levels since 2008 and the spread between French 10-year bonds and German ones — an indicator that measures investors’ appetite to hold French debt over more traditionally stable German debt — shot above 150 basis points last week, a level not seen in years. The minority French government has introduced a budget last week with €43 billion worth of savings designed to reassure markets fretting about France’s massive debt and a stubbornly high budget deficit. But the minority government will find it difficult to get parliamentary approval for the same. One French observer has termed all of this as “maxi merde”, a French expletive which when roughly translated reads as “super shit”.
Germany, the other European giant, also faces challenges of its own. German voters go to the polls in Sachsen-Anhalt on September 6, with elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern two weeks later. An AfD (far-right German political party) parliamentary majority in Sachsen-Anhalt would almost certainly consume German politics for the coming months and fuel existing speculation surrounding Merz’s chancellorship. Merz and his coalition may remain in place through mid-2027, but this stability may come at a cost. The much-needed economic and social reforms that Merz had promised are likely to be watered down, and weak government will reinforce the public’s deep dissatisfaction with the political establishment in Germany.
European observers are watching the goings-on in France (and Germany) with some concern. Say what you will about rising powers such as Poland, the fact remains that France is now the only nuclear power in Europe and is the only European permanent member of the UN Security Council. Similarly, Germany’s economic clout looms large in Europe. For the foreseeable future therefore, France and Germany, also known as the Franco-German locomotive, is critically important for the smooth functioning of Europe. With conflict still raging in Ukraine, Europe struggling to fight against Chinese commercial aggression and the US completely reassessing its transatlantic alliance, the travails of France, combined with potential problems in Germany, could not have come at a worse time, both for the two countries concerned and for Europe as a whole.
Dr Mohan Kumar is a former Indian Ambassador to France and is at present Dean/Professor at O.P. Jindal Global University. Views are personal.
