Now that we have a piece of paper (MOU) signed by both American President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian, it may be a good time to compare this document with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by EU plus 3 (US,UK,France, Germany,China,Russia, with the EU’s High Representative) with Iran as far back as 2015.
But before we do that, some broad observations. The JCPOA was a “final” agreement painstakingly arrived at after two years of negotiations. The MOU is an “interim” framework with a “final” agreement potentially emerging after 60 days or more, decided by mutual consent. The JCPOA involved the major powers and was thus legally binding. The MOU is binding, to the extent it is, only for US and Iran. In effect, we are comparing apples and oranges.
Standstill Clause
Pending the final ageement, the US and Iran agree to maintain the status quo i.e. Iran will maintain the status quo of its nuclear program and the US will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy any additional forces in the region. On the latter point, there is an interesting clause which says that the US undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal. What exactly does this imply? It would seem to refer to the 50,000-odd troops that the US has for its ongoing military operations around Iran. It certainly does not refer to US bases in the GCC countries!
Nuclear Issue
The JCPOA is nothing if not categorical. It asserts: Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will it ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons. But it also provides that the JCPOA will ensure the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme. In fact, it talks of Iran’s “right” under the NPT to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.
The MOU on the other hand says: Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
While the language seems stronger in the JCPOA than the MOU, I think the key is whether or not Iran is entitled to any peaceful nuclear programme at all. Presumably, this will be dealt with in the subsequent negotiations. But Trump was clear in the press conference yesteday in Evian. Why should a country like Iran that has so much energy in the form of oil and gas, need nuclear energy at all? This will doubtless be a thorny issue in the forthcoming negotiations.
The JCPOA had detailed and technical annexes about uranium enrichment and so on. The MOU has none of that because this issue is yet to be negotiated as part of the final agreement.
Strait of Hormuz
This was simply not an issue before February 2026. The fact that it is now, may be considered a sign of US retrenchment from not just the region, but from the world in general. If true, China will draw the necessary conclusions.
The MOU makes clear that immediately upon signing (which has already happened) the US will begin the removal of its naval blockade and end it within 30 days. During the same period, Iran will restore the traffic of vessels in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic. Interestingly, Iran will make arrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels with “no charge” only for a period of 60 days from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. After this period, Iran will consult with Oman to “define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states”. This is subject to variable interpretation. But one common interpretation is that some kind of “service fees” for Iran and Oman may be applicable to the vessels utilizing the Strait of Hormuz, even if UNCLOS is accepted by Iran and Oman.
Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity of Iran
The JCPOA merely says that parties to the agreement reaffirm their commitment to the purposes and principles of the United Nations as set out in the UN Charter.
The MOU is much more explicit: US and Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and terrritorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs. This appears significant for Iran which sought an iran clad commitment that US will not go back to bombing. But the value of this commitment is dubious. President Trump is already saying if Iran does not meet its commitments, the US will go back to bombing it. There is also the other wild card that is Israel. Israel, notably, is not a party to the MOU so not bound by this commitment. But the MOU does say the US and its allies (Israel?) and Iran and its allies (Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis?) through this MOU declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts including Lebanon. They also undertake not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other and ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. One can see why Israel is so unhappy about the MOU!
Dollars and Cents
The JCPOA says it will lead to the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance and energy. All this was immediate since the JCPOA was a final agreement. One of the criticisms of the Republicans against the JCPOA was that the Obama administration paid “huge” sums of dollars to Iran with nothing to show in return. As will be seen below, this criticism of the JCPOA may come back to haunt the Republicans.
On sanctions, the MOU says the US undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against Iran including the UN Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. It was agreed that this issue will be immediately addressed in the negotiations that follow. So, this is valuable leverage that the US still has vis-a-vis Iran.
But three measures of economic relief for Iran are discernible. One, Iran can straightaway start selling its crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives even pending the final agreement. US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the same. Two, the US undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Rep[ublic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. Procedures to be agreed upon. Three, the US undertakes with regional partners to develop a defintive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for reconstruction and economic development of Iran. Mechanism to be developed as part of the final deal within 60 days. When asked about this in the press conference yesterday, President Trump countered by saying that so much destruction has been wrought by the bombing on iran that they need the money for reconstruction. Add to this unconfirmed reports that both Qatar and UAE have already transferred substantial sums in dollars to Iran for agreeeing to sign the MOU.
Role for UNSC
Given the lack of trust between the two parties and perhaps at the insistence of the Iranians, the MOU provides that the final agreement will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution. This, presumably, will make it more difficult for the two sides to renege on the final agreement that is arrived upon.
In order to definitively judge the MOU against the JCPOA, one will need to know the broad contours of the final agreement arrived at by US and Iran in the next 60 days or more.
Dr Mohan Kumar is a former Indian Ambassador to France and currently the inaugural Director General of the Motwani Jadeja Institute for American Studies at the OP Jindal Global University.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 