French President Emmanuel Macron is nothing if not dramatic. Speaking at Sorbonne in 2024, he proclaimed with customary chutzpah: “Our Europe is mortal; it can die, and it all depends on our choices.” For once, Macron was not exaggerating when he said that. Europe does seem to face unprecedented existential challenges.
I have just returned from Barcelona after participating in a well-attended conference whose title was duly provocative: Europe’s strategic autonomy, myth or reality! The conference though organized by the ” Cercle d’economia” of Barcelona, attracted strategic thinkers from all over Europe. I was invited along with a distinguished Professor from the University of Beijing to give the Indian and Chinese perspectives respectively. While it is impossible to summarize the outcome of the two-day conference here, I do wish to make two significant points. One, the general mood was sombre. Two, there was wide consensus among those present that while America continues to innovate the best and China still manufactures prolifically, all the EU is able to do is regulate!
The economic climate in Europe was a matter of substantive debate and discussion. There was a feeling that Europe was being squeezed by both China and the US. Specific problems faced by Europe ranged from the housing crisis, low productivity, youth unemployment and burgeoning immigration, both legal and illegal. As an aside, it was interesting that while Barcelona had 10,000 Indian immigrants, they had something like 30,000 Pakistani immigrants! While a range of solutions were offered by economists and thinkers, the final conclusion was that Europe was too big an entity for a “one size fits all” economic and social solution. Brussels came in for a fair bit of criticism and China was seen more as a strategic threat than as a benign partner. US under Trump was considered an unreliable and unpredictable partner. But speaker after speaker was at pains to point out that the changes in the US were more or less irreversible and will outlast President Trump regardless of who wins in the presidential elections there in 2028.
India’s strategic autonomy was lauded and even viewed with some jealousy. As opposed to China, we were largely seen in benevolent terms. There was some talk of Europe and India getting together to strengthen their “geopolitical alliance”. But the European economic operators and company representatives who were present in large numbers continued to believe that India was a tough place to do business. I did underline the reforms and the ease of business steps taken by the Government. I got a patient hearing, if nothing else.
Europe’s strategic autonomy is under assault from three directions. Energy independence from Russia is proving to be difficult. Economic derisking from China is easier said than done. As if both these were not challenge enough, Europe now eventually seeks security and military independence from the US, thanks to moves by the Trump administration. Doing any one of these is difficult in the best of times; but for Europe to cope with all three at once, is nothing short of daunting.
The most worrying thing was that there was absolutely no discussion among the European strategic community regarding a new security architecture for Europe involving Russia. Russia was viewed in antithetical terms and there was conviction that Ukraine was making incremental progress, especially of late. Equally, it was felt that the economic situation in Russia was dire and President Putin was under enormous domestic pressure over the war in Ukraine.
These days, it is impossible to attend any conference anywhere in the world without a session devoted to Artificial Intelligence (AI). So it was in Barcelona too. Europe was seen as falling behind both US and China in this crucial area. The Commission led by Von der Leyen was to announce a European technological sovereignty package: a set of measures to strengthen the EU’s capacity in semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud and open source. It was expected to help Europe become a leader in AI, strengthen its digital autonomy, and help build a more sustainable digital future. This package was eventually announced by the Commission on 4 June. It remains to be seen how well this plan is implemented all over EU.
Whether Europe’s strategic autonomy is a myth or reality is arguable. What is clear is that European Union faces multiple challenges which if not properly handled will have the effect of diminishing its strategic autonomy, rather than enhancing it. This is a moment for Europe to be united, not divided. And yet, differences abound, whether it is Europe’s strategy of countering China, or its strategy of coping with the US or the strategy of resisting Russia. There is also the fate of the Franco-German engine which has been so vital for the smooth functioning of the EU. France is on the cusp of a terribly important election next year. If someone like Jordan Bardella becomes the French President, France’s approach to EU and Brussels will undergo a paradigm shift. This could potentially include things like the use of the French nuclear arsenal and will therefore vitally impact the “forward deterrence” proposition put forward by President Macron. As for Germany, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, France and Germany spent nearly the same amount on defence. By 2029 however, Germany’s defence budget is expected to swell to at least €150bn ($174bn)—roughly double that of France’s. For European security, German rearmament is welcome. Yet in Paris the prospect may also prompt some discomfort. The Franco-German link was forged around an implicit equilibrium: France carries the military burden, while Germany provides economic might. If that equation were to change radically, a lot of other things might have to change too in the EU.
EU will undoubtedly cope with all this, as only it can. The question though is whether all of this will prevent the EU from achieving great power status in the near term, which then has profound implications for the kind of multipolar world order we are heading towards.
Dr Mohan Kumar is a former Indian Ambassador to France and currently Dean/Professor at O.P. Jindal Global University in India. Views are personal.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 