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  • The Emperor has new clothes

    Oct 30th, 2022

    Now that Xi Jinping has been anointed the leader of China for an indefinite and foreseeable future, it is perhaps time to guess how China’s foreign policy will play out. There are already some indications.

    First, the olive branch to the US. Xi Jinping has said that China is willing to work with the US to find ways to get along for mutual benefit. Pretty boilerplate, you might say. Even so, can be construed as conciliatory. The same message was conveyed by the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (who has been promoted as Politburo member) to the American Ambassador in Beijing, Nicholas Burns but in more stark terms: it was clarified by the Chinese FM that neither country can change the other! The bottom line: US is the only country that is considered its equal by China and wants the US to do likewise.

    Second, Xi Jinping is doubling down on Russia. Chinese FM Wang Yi in a phone call to Russia’s FM Lavrov stated that China would continue to support Russia as a major power. This call followed the congratulatory message sent to Xi Jinping by Putin. So, the Sino-Russian “alliance” shows no sign of weakening despite the war in Ukraine.

    That brings me to what powers like Japan, ASEAN, Australia and India should expect from the newly anointed Xi Jinping. The answer is: more of the same as before. China will assert itself with those who aspire for a multipolar Asia. With the Taiwan straits tense and North Korea’s sabre rattling, is Asia witnessing a gathering storm?

  • Franco-German Woes

    Oct 29th, 2022

    It is in India’s abiding interest that Europe remains united in the face of multiple strategic challenges it faces. And the key to EU unity obviously lies in Franco-German cooperation. Against this background, it is somewhat disconcerting that Germany and France have had a falling out recently. Thus, both countries have decided to put off their much vaunted joint ministerial meeting. German Chancellor Scholz has also decided that he will travel to Beijing alone and not with French President Macron. He will also take a huge business delegation with him to China, which should make the latter happy. Last week, Chancellor Scholz signed off on the purchase by a Chinese firm COSCO of a 25 per cent stake in a Hamburg port terminal. Are these tell tale signs of serious differences between EU’s two major powers or are these mere bumps on the road? Only time will tell. Either way, it bears watching.

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Ambassador Dr Mohan Kumar is a former diplomat with 36 years of expertise in the Indian Foreign Service and is currently Dean/Professor at O.P. Jindal Global University. He contributes regularly to newspapers and publications on diplomacy, geopolitics and strategic affairs.

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