So, Indian and Chinese troops have clashed again, this time in the Tawang sector in Arunachal Pradesh. The place of the clash is significant, since China has often claimed, outrageously, that “Zagnan” (Chinese reference to Arunachal Pradesh) has always been part of the Tibet Autonomous Region of China. Indeed, China refers to it as South Tibet. The Indian Defence Ministry has put out a statement saying that Chinese troops had encroached into Indian territory and sought to change the status quo, much like what they tried to do in Ladakh in June 2020 leading to deaths on both sides. Fortunately, no casualties have been noted by either side this time, though injuries have been reported. India has said that the transgression by Chinese troops was repulsed and they have been forced to go back to their posts following disengagement of troops. Chinese Foreign Ministry gave no details about the incident, saying blithely the situation on the Sino-Indian border was generally stable. The good news is that local military commanders appear to have followed the laid-out procedures and tried to defuse the situation. It is understood that India has raised the issue through diplomatic channels as well.

While details will emerge in the next few days, it is important to ask why the Chinese did what they did. Could it be a reaction to the joint Indo-American joint military exercise “Yudh Abhyas” done last month within 100 Kms from the Sino-Indian border in Uttarakhand. This was objected to by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman at the time who said it violated the spirit of the bilateral agreements of 1993 and 1996. More broadly, India is also basking in the limelight of just having taken over the presidency of the G20 and is preparing a series of meetings in the run-up to the summit meeting in September 2023 in Delhi. Could it be linked to this?

Whatever the motive, the incident taken along with the more serious ones that happened in June 20 in Ladakh, is cause for worry. The Chinese are making a habit of preventing India from patrolling in areas where they have done so earlier, using the disputed nature of the border as a pretext. India, which has successfully resisted transgressions so far, is thus having to be in a situation of eternal vigilance. Valuable resources are having to be deployed and maintained at the border by India.

When the recent COVID protests happened in China and President Xi Jinping was forced to beat a retreat, the question was posed by observers as to how China would conduct its foreign policy. Could it possibly lead China to be more belligerent vis-a-vis some of its neighbours? In this regard, do the recent clashes in Arunachal Pradesh provide a clue? Hopefully over time, answers to these questions will emerge.

When unprecedented protests in China occurred last month, most China watchers did what is known as “spread betting” without clearly outlining what will happen next. Yes, some had predicted loosening of covid controls but not without adding in the same breath that there could be massive state repression. In the event, what is a matter of great surprise is the extent of loosening of covid controls over the last few days. At the time of writing, several Chinese cities have eased covid controls. The most important of these have been: doing away with the stringent requirement of commuters to present the covid test result for travel on public transport and allowing apartment residents who test positive to quarantine at home rather than in central quarantine facilities. Other moves to ease citizens’ lives may well be under way.

On whether or not there has been massive state repression and action against “protest leaders”, it is hard to say. There has been a discernible increase in police presence in public spaces for sure, but no other reports (yet?) of widespread violence.

In an extremely unusual move, China’s supreme leader Xi Jinping acknowledged the protests to the visiting EU delegation led by European Council President Charles Michel and reportedly said that “frustrated” students were behind the protests following the strict covid restrictions over the last couple of years. This is unheard of for a Chinese leader since it is tantamount to discussing China’s ‘internal affairs’ with outsiders, that too with leaders of the decadent West!

So, what just happened in China? It is hard to avoid the impression that the scale and manner of protests did rattle the powers that be. At a minimum, Xi Jinping did not want further escalation of these protests in a way that would have irreversibly eroded his authority, only weeks after his coronation as China’s unquestioned leader at the twentieth Communist Party Congress. It does seem as though Xi Jinping has bent to the will of the protesters, even if this is temporary and tactical.

The timing of the protests may have also contributed to Xi Jinping’s decision to loosen covid controls. China is facing serious economic headwinds, intense geopolitical rivalry with the US and a global economy on the brink of recession thanks to the war in Ukraine. To have internal dissent and disharmony at home at a time like this would have been too risky and dangerous, even for a country as authoritarian as China. Viewed this way, the loosening of covid controls is a shrewd move by a leader who knows when to give in. But the long term implications of this for China are harder to assess. Will this embolden the Chinese people further in expressing themselves in the future, making governance of some 1.4 billion people that much more difficult? China watchers will simply tell you to wait and watch!

So, for the first time ever, India today assumes the presidency of the important G 20 grouping at a crucial time in the world. The presidency offers both opportunity and challenge. Opportunity, because India can help set the global agenda, push for reconciliation/resolution of at least some of the global issues and finally, offer solutions to problems based on its own experience. Challenge, because the world is polarized, there are intractable problems at hand and unexpected black swan events may emerge.

The theme of India’s presidency is appropriately entitled: One Earth, One Family and One Future. This is a clear enunciation of the old Indian belief, Vasudaiva Kutumbakam or the world is one family. But it also emphasizes things like there is only one earth for us to share, that we are all in this together and that the future lies in our hands.

PM has already stated that India wishes its presidency of G 20 to be inclusive, ambitious, decisive and action-oriented. This is a tall order given the “polycrisis” that characterizes the world order and the polarisation that prevails in international relations. Be that as it may, India does have a lot of credibility and equity which will help it play a key role in achieving the above markers.

Specifically, India will strive for the following objectives:

(1) Be the voice of the Global South.

(2) Stress international cooperation rather than confrontation.

(3) Showcase India’s developmental experience as a possible role model for other countries.

(4) Technology as a means to provide solutions to global problems.

(5) Stress climate change as a serious issue where the poor countries are the most vulnerable. PM’s LIFE initiative.

(6) Depoliticize the global supply of food, fertilizer and medical products.

(7) Outline ways to diminish the digital divide.

(8) Reform the multilateral system to reflect contemporary realities.

(9) Urge the early achievement of SDG objectives such as abolition of extreme poverty.

(10) Ensure geopolitical issues such as Ukraine war do not disproportionately affect the countries of the Global South.

The task is not easy but as pointed out earlier, if there is a country well suited to talk to all sides and find cooperative solutions, it is perhaps India!

Something is clearly afoot in China. A society which prides itself on discipline, order and calm has seen a spate of protests and serious outburst from the youth over the last couple of days. While the immediate trigger for the protests are obviously the draconian zero-covid policy measures of the authorities, there are also tell tale signs it could be linked to a larger quest for freedom by the populace. An odd poster (or two) has appeared even asking for the stepping down of the newly anointed leader, Xi Jinping.

It is hard to think of any precedent for this in recent times. One has to go back to the Tiananmen incidents in 1989. But it is important not to exaggerate the scale of the events of the past two days. First, there does not seem to be any real threat to the Government. Sure, it is a clear sign of discontent with the Zero Covid policies of the authorities, but perhaps no more than that. Second, the Government may react with both carrot and stick. Carrot, in the form of tangible relaxation of the draconian Covid policies and stick, in the form of rounding up the youth who dared to protest. Last, but not least, Xi Jinping may deflect the issue by squarely blaming the local authorities for not just the fire and the subsequent deaths at Urumqui in Xinjiang province, but also hold them responsible for the misapplication of the Zero Covid policy. Expect heads to roll. Whether this will be enough to appease the protesters, one will have to wait and see. China-watchers the world over must be working overtime.

It really goes to the heart of the million-dollar question posed about China, for which there is never a clear answer. As China becomes more and more prosperous, is it conceivable that the population there demands more freedom, as people everywhere else in the world are apt to do. Or are the Chinese people so “sui generis”, that they are relatively immune to this general law of human nature. Only time will tell!

So, the COP 27 drew to a close at Sharm El-Shaikh after lengthy and sometimes acrimonious negotiations. First, the good news. A decision has been taken to set up a fund for “loss and damage” – a longstanding demand from climate-vulnerable countries. Whether this turns out to be symbolic or substantive will depend entirely on the colour of the money. Still, it represents a paradigmatic shift in the positions of the wealthy countries who were viscerally opposed to the very notion of “loss and damage” a few years ago.

There is no question that the planet is in the ICU. The issue is who pays for the immediate treatment of the patient and more important, who pays for the full recovery which in this case could take decades. Considering previous COPs have been obsessed about mitigation, it is ironical that COP 27 has little to show in this regard. Indeed, activists will argue that there has been backsliding in this regard. The introduction of the concept of “low-emission energy” is significant, because it could be interpreted as an indefinite reliance by greenhouse gas emitting countries on fossil fuels such as gas.

And then there is the elusive goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degree celsius compared to pre-industrial times. The Paris Agreement was clear: it asked countries to absolutely do everything to limit global warming to well below 2 degree celsius, even while making efforts to keep it below 1.5 degree celsius. But reports since then indicate that there has been a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions making the 1.5 degree celsius goal difficult if not impossible. A resolution sought by some countries saying emissions must peak by 2025, did not pass muster causing further dismay amongst activists.

The Paris commitment of developed countries to give $100 Billion Dollars to poorer countries from 2020 onwards has been honoured more in breach. The Glasgow (COP 26) summit agreed to double the $20 Billion that will go to adaptation ; while mitigation is about reducing greenhouse gases, adaptation is about infrastructure in poorer countries to cope with climate change. This has been maintained after a struggle at COP 27.

There is broad recognition that India is doing all it can to contribute to the fight against climate change. We are now clearly seen as part of the solution, rather than as part of the problem as in the past. Still, key challenges remain as we balance the goals of clean air, job creation and poverty alleviation. At the end of the day, COP meetings are about the politics of climate change; COP 27 at Sharm El-Shaikh was no different in this respect.

Democracies have a way of confounding political pundits, especially with their poll predictions. And so it was at the midterm election in the world’s most powerful democracy where the Republicans in general and candidates backed by Trump in particular, were expected to triumph. Instead, many of them lost and the “red wave” (a reference to Republican party) failed to materialize. More significantly, Joe Biden has withstood anti-incumbency in a way that no one imagined and way better than Obama or Clinton at this stage. No mean achievement!

Should one see this as a one-off thing or is a trend discernible that will eventually lead to the political demise of Trump and his supporters. It is worth cautioning against overinterpretation of these results. First, Trump is not about to disappear, though no one can contest that he has been weakened. Second, the new kid on the block i.e. Ron Desantis is, as one wag put it, Trump with a lot of intelligence! So the ideas behind the Trump phenomenon may be expected to receive political traction.

What of the democrats? They can take a lot of heart. If anything, they could have pushed even more on issues such as abortion which attracted a fair number of Republican party sympathisers.

What are the implications for foreign policy? Well, the Congress will be divided and acrimonious. But it is not clear the ?Republicans will be able to thwart everything that Biden seeks to do. So, if Biden can play it smart and seek cooperation across the isle, who knows he may even get a lot of things accomplished. On China and Ukraine, expect more of the same policy. Biden may also get a free hand, if the Republicans get into an internecine strife between Trump and Desantis.

All things considered, American democracy is alive and well. Warren Buffett has never seemed more right: never bet against America!!!

As happens with monotonous regularity, COP 27 opened this time in Egypt on Sunday. The backdrop could not be grimmer. The last 8 years have been the warmest the planet has ever had to endure, pledges on climate finance have been reneged routinely, climate adaptation has been given short shrift what with the emphasis on mitigation and the idea of loss and damage is yet to gain full traction.

Still, one has to be a Micawber when it comes to the fight against climate change. COP 27 is what they call a ” transitional” COP in the sense that it is more stocktaking than breaking new ground and more about implementation of past promises rather than negotiating new commitments. The only exception is climate finance and here a lot hinges on the political will of the rich countries.

The two biggest Greenhouse Gas emitters i.e. the US and China are not even talking amongst themselves about the fight against climate change, following the suspension of dialogue after the Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan. If you cannot see any connection between the two, it is because there isn’t any!

So, what can the COP 27 possibly accomplish? There is some utility of these annual jamborees, since it is an opportunity for poor and vulnerable countries to make their voices heard. Perhaps, loss ( of life) and damage(to property) will be permanently inscribed on the agenda of COP. Perhaps, there will be more finance for climate adaptation ( Glasgow decided to double the amount for adaptation from 20 to 40 Billion Dollars) and perhaps who knows developed countries may decide to significantly augment funding for poorer countries. One has to live in hope when it comes to these things. Here is hoping that developed countries do not ” cop out” at COP 27!!!

As it happens I am in Incheon ( South Korea) not far from Seoul, currently attending a conference organized by the Secretariat of the DMZ ( Demilitarized Zone) International Forum on the topic: Peace on the Korean peninsula and international cooperation in the era of great transformation and economic security. The irony is the conference is taking place against the backdrop of both South Korea and North Korea firing missiles off each other’s coasts for the first time. In all fairness, North Korea has been sabre rattling for weeks indulging in grave provocation. Seoul could not have remained silent after a missile landed on 2 November less than 60 Kms from the southern city of Sokcho. In the middle of all this, North Korea is widely expected to resume testing nuclear weapons taking the security situation of the Korean peninsula to a whole new level of uncertainty. It has been said that the epicenter of geopolitics is the Indo-Pacific. The insecurity emanating from the Korean peninsula along with the situation obtaining in Taiwan strait makes the Indo-Pacific extremely unstable at this point. This will be the subject of this important conference in Incheon over the next couple of days with participants from all over the world. The situation in Indo-Pacific bears scrutiny.

Now that Xi Jinping has been anointed the leader of China for an indefinite and foreseeable future, it is perhaps time to guess how China’s foreign policy will play out. There are already some indications.

First, the olive branch to the US. Xi Jinping has said that China is willing to work with the US to find ways to get along for mutual benefit. Pretty boilerplate, you might say. Even so, can be construed as conciliatory. The same message was conveyed by the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (who has been promoted as Politburo member) to the American Ambassador in Beijing, Nicholas Burns but in more stark terms: it was clarified by the Chinese FM that neither country can change the other! The bottom line: US is the only country that is considered its equal by China and wants the US to do likewise.

Second, Xi Jinping is doubling down on Russia. Chinese FM Wang Yi in a phone call to Russia’s FM Lavrov stated that China would continue to support Russia as a major power. This call followed the congratulatory message sent to Xi Jinping by Putin. So, the Sino-Russian “alliance” shows no sign of weakening despite the war in Ukraine.

That brings me to what powers like Japan, ASEAN, Australia and India should expect from the newly anointed Xi Jinping. The answer is: more of the same as before. China will assert itself with those who aspire for a multipolar Asia. With the Taiwan straits tense and North Korea’s sabre rattling, is Asia witnessing a gathering storm?

It is in India’s abiding interest that Europe remains united in the face of multiple strategic challenges it faces. And the key to EU unity obviously lies in Franco-German cooperation. Against this background, it is somewhat disconcerting that Germany and France have had a falling out recently. Thus, both countries have decided to put off their much vaunted joint ministerial meeting. German Chancellor Scholz has also decided that he will travel to Beijing alone and not with French President Macron. He will also take a huge business delegation with him to China, which should make the latter happy. Last week, Chancellor Scholz signed off on the purchase by a Chinese firm COSCO of a 25 per cent stake in a Hamburg port terminal. Are these tell tale signs of serious differences between EU’s two major powers or are these mere bumps on the road? Only time will tell. Either way, it bears watching.