In the middle of all the frontline news emanating from the Middle East, there was a small news item tucked away on page 10 of the standard Indian newspaper. It announced, somewhat cryptically, that the Government of India had decided to withdraw its offer to host the international climate meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP) in 2028. Also on 25 March, 2026 India submitted its much-delayed NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution), mandated by the Climate Accords of Paris (2015). And to top it all, the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz has had an impact on the price of a barrel of Brent Crude which has risen from something like $60 before the war i.e. 28 February, 2026 to something like $100, as of this writing. So, what does all this mean for the fight against climate change?
For some time now, the Western countries have been reassessing their climate policies. The US is perhaps the most obvious example; after all, it withdrew (again) from the Paris Climate Accords. But the Trump administration has also rolled back the stringent regulations of the Environmental Protection Agency when it comes to preventing harmful emissions from power plants. The administration thus seeks to dismantle environmental regulations established during the Biden era that imposed strict limits on greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants. In parallel, the US has also offered incentives to major firms with a view to achieving energy independence, regardless of whether they are fossil or not. But the US is not the only Western power to do so. The European Union (EU), often described as the Green Superpower, has also faced serious problems when it comes to maintaining its climate ambition. Through its 2019 Green Deal, the EU was assiduously working towards making its industries more efficient and climate-neutral by 2050. But the plan is currently facing increasing domestic criticism and political pressure. Two central instruments of the Green Deal are the EU supply chain act and companies’ obligations to report on their social and environmental impacts. But the small and medium enterprises belonging to the EU protested against this; they have since been exempted. Only the big companies face obligations, some of it diluted.
The 27 EU member states had also agreed on rules aimed at protecting forests. Products such as tea, coffee, soy and beef were only to be available for sale in the EU if verifiably not linked to deforestation. However, the introduction of the new rules has now been postponed till the end of 2026. In addition, significantly fewer companies will have to prove that their products are manufactured in deforestation-free ways. Agriculture is the other area which contributes to lack of sustainability but which is politically sensitive in EU. Here too, politicians are increasingly giving in. In 2023 and 2024, farmers protesting stricter rules around the use of pesticides led to them not being adopted. Elsewhere, the EU decision to stop the production of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles within the bloc from 2035 could be history even before the law enters into force. The German government has voiced strong opposition to the deadline and the country’s car industry has been steadfast in opposing the decision. Now, the EU has officially decided to review the end of the internal combustion engine, leaving a question mark over whether a ban will ever come into force.
China’s case is curious. It stands at a critical juncture where emissions have started to level off, thanks to clean energy meeting all of the electricity demand increase, but there is still a large pipeline of coal power projects looming and limited progress in industrial decarbonisation. In other words, while China burns more coal than the rest of the world put together, it is also true that they outspend the rest of the world on renewable energy. The 15th five-year plan announced recently sees China walking back earlier commitments to gradually reduce coal consumption and power sector emissions. It has thus set a less strict carbon intensity target than for the previous five years, allowing emissions to increase over the five-year period. This is despte the fact that it is now by far the largest Greenhouse Gas Emitter on this planet.
India, after some delay, announced its NDC as mandated under the Paris Climate Accords. The main features are given below:
- India’s updated NDC sets the following goals:
- 60% of installed electric capacity from non-fossil sources by 2035
- 47% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP (from 2005 levels)
- Carbon sink of 3.5–4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent
- India’s earlier NDC, submitted in August 2022, included:
- 50% non-fossil installed capacity by 2030
- 45% reduction in emissions intensity
- Carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes CO₂ equivalent
It may be immediately seen from our NDC above that while it is realistic and achievable, it is far from being overly ambitious. The reasons for this are not far to seek. India’s climate policy and its NDC were never unconditional. They were always contingent on two things: one, on the extent of climate finance available including from external sources and two, on the need for protecting the basic right to development of the millions of its poor citizens. With the developed countries themselves slackening in their fight against climate change, there is no real pressure on India to put up ambitious climate targets. And the war in the Middle East is not helping matters for countries like India in the global south. Small wonder then that India also took the decision quietly to withdraw its offer to host the COP meeting in 2028. With the last few COP meetings turning acrimonious and India sometimes unjustifiably being cast as the villain, it is not worth India’s while to take it upon itself to organize a COP meeting where consensus-making may prove a himalayan task.
It would seem clear that Federal Governments, whether in the developed or developing world, are prone to reneging on their climate commitments. It is thus left to local/municipal governments, non-governmental organizations and climate activists to continue the valiant fight against climate change. Paris in 2015, I still remember vividly, was a time of hope and promise in the global fight against climate change. How things have changed in a matter of ten years!
Dr Mohan Kumar is a former Indian Ambassador to France and currently Dean/Professor at O.P. Jindal Global University. Views are personal.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 