With the Middle East (aka West Asia) going up in flames, it is no longer an exaggeration to say that the world is on the brink. The more difficult question to answer is what happens now?
Major continents are in the throes of upheaval. The Western Hemisphere is already facing the full force of the “Donroe Doctrine” (alternatively styled as the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine) as we saw in the events unfolding in Venezuela. It is fair to say that things have not yet settled in Venzuela following the overthrow of the former President Maduro. American ties with both Canada and Mexico may have gotten civil, but not yet chummy as they ought to be. US has imposed a fuel blockade of Cuba, and President Trump let it be known intriguingly that there may be a “friendly takeover” of Cuba. Suffice it to say that the Western Hemisphere is producing more headlines than it can consume these days.
The African continent has been home to violent conflicts for a long time. At the time of writing, wars rage in Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, The Sahel trio of Mali, Burkina Faso & Niger, and Mozambique. Need one say more about the dark continent?
Europe has been in the throes of a conflict since February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Despite the best efforts of President Trump and others, the conflict shows no sign of abating. It has truly taken on the character of a war of attrition, with enormous death and destruction bang in the middle of Europe. At the time of writing, it seems unlikely that the conflict in Ukraine will end anytime soon.
While Asia has had episodic conflicts, it has been generally free of large-scale and destructive wars. That said, the war between Pakistan and Afghanistan now seems seriously worrisome. Gulf countries have had a go at mediation in the past, but the two neighbours seem more antagonistic than ever. And in the Himalayas, it is worth recalling that India and China maintain some 50,000 troops each, in eyeball to eyeball confrontation. The situation in the Taiwan Strait, South and East China Sea is also far from normal.
But it is the Middle East that has, justifiably, occupied airtime and headlines for the last 48 hours or so. It has thus dubiously lived up to its reputation of being a permanently unsettled region. The joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran have the potential to dramatically alter the strategic landscape in not just the Middle East, but in the world at large. The question, however, on everyone’s mind is how long the conflict will last? This is important for a variety of reasons. But the most important has to do with the global economy and with the sea lanes of communication in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already retaliated against the US-Israeli attacks. But will it have the wherewithal to survive, resist and retaliate for a meaningful period of time? As for US objectives, it certainly would not want to get sucked into a quagmire, which is what Iran may prove to be. President Trump must be acutely aware of voices in his MAGA constituency which detest “forever” wars. Curiously, the reaction from China and Russia to the US-Israeli attempt at regime change in Iran has been muted, to put it mildly. This will be the subject of much analysis and dissection among foreign policy wonks.
So, what explains all of the above? That is not an easy question to answer. Rather than resort to facile explanantions attributable to the actions of one country’s leader or the other, answers must be sought in structural factors that affect international relations at this point. The truth of the matter is that, geopolitically and geoeconomically, the world appears multipolar albeit with strong binary characterstics, underpinned by the dominance of both the US and China. But geomilitarily, the world is still very much unipolar with the US calling the shots. In the final analysis, it is only the US which seems capable of projecting hard power across continents. In order to achieve global strategic equilibrium, a certain degree of multipolarity is essential not just in the geopolitical and geoeconomic spheres, but also in the geomilitary sphere. That might bring an element of balance of power and long-term stability in international relations. Easier said than done, you say. Well, you would be right.
Dr Mohan Kumar is a former Indian Ambassador to France and the inaugural Director General of the Motwani Jadeja Institute for American Studies at the O.P. Jindal Global University. Views are personal.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 