One of the advantages of being an extinguished diplomat (all diplomats are distinguished while in service, subsequently they stand extinguished!) but one who is desperately trying to be a distinguished academic, is that one can give free rein to one’s imagination, especially if it is one’s own blog. So here goes. All grades are out of 10, purely subjective and thus cannot be appealed against. Adverse comments are therefore NOT welcome!
US: 7. Because other than China which has enormous leverage to deal with the US, we are probably the only country which has not folded and held its line. First quarter of 2026 should see stability return to bilateral ties.
China: 7. Again, it is a question of putting up resistance to China despite a huge difference in comprehensive national power between our two countries. We are not giving up on the border either.
EU: 6. The moot point is whether India could have done more to try and end the war in Ukraine. Be that as it may, efforts to conclude an FTA must be brought to fruition in 2026!
Russia: 8. No better manifestation of India’s foreign policy based on multialignment than the way we have dealt with Russia, that too against odds.
Pakistan: 4. India may have decisively won the war but perhaps lost the global narrative. Gallingly, it must also be admitted that Pakistan is back in the game, albeit with flattery, deception and its own brand of multialignment. Fortunately for India, the power differential between our two countries is practically unbridgeable, so it should not worry us at all in the long run. India should behave and act like a “Dhurandhar” !
Bangladesh: 4. The overthrow of Sheikh Hasina was a grey swan event, not a black swan one. So, we are guilty to some extent. Subsequent events in Bangladesh are probably beyond our control; but we do have leverage (both positive and negative) and we must use it.
Rest of Neighbourhood: 7. We were first responder in the case of Sri Lanka, pulled Maldives back into our zone of influence and stayed out of Nepal’s internecine politics and maintained the status quo in Bhutan. Not too bad!
Japan: 6. Japan is particularly vulnerable at this point: pressure from Beijing and uncertainty from the US. India could have made a big move vis-a-vis Japan, can we do one now?
Australia: 7. Can we do something monumental on critical minerals and rare earths?
ASEAN: 5. Suffered from mutual and benign neglect. Are we missing a trick?
Canada: 8. To sense an opening after the departure of Trudeau and grabbing it with both hands. Congratulations on a job well done.
Gulf: 7. Relations strengthened with both UAE and Saudi Arabia. But the latter’s defence tie-up with Pakistan was a bit of a dampener. We must have a frank conversation about this with the Saudis.
Israel: 7. We must strengthen our ties even further in the light of an adverse strategic scenario confronting us from many directions.
Africa: 5. We seem to lack a big bang idea which can take ties to the next level. Ignoring Africa would be a mistake.
UN & WTO: 4. From being champions of yore with regard to multilateralism, we seem to have consciously moved away from it, whether it is UN or WTO, at a time when those institutions need India most. 2026 may be difficult from this perspective: G 20 already faces trouble and we should expect India’s BRICS Presidency to be challenging.
Overall Score: 6.5 This may not seem outstanding but in a year characterised by distinct political and economic turbulence, this should count as a 8, no less.
Happy New Year full of geopolitical strife and strategic discord!
Ambassador Dr Mohan Kumar is Director General of the Motwani Jadeja Institute for American Studies and Dean/ Professor at OP Jindal Global University. Views are personal.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 