The four post-communist countries that form an informal grouping of the European Union are known as the Visegrad Four. These are: Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Czech Republic. By a combination of political cirumstances, all the four countries now appear to have reservations of varying degrees about EU’s policy of prosecuting the war in Ukraine. This is an important development since it is bound to have implications for European unity at a time when the security architecture in Europe is under tremendous stress.
Hungary under its leader Victor Orban has always had the reputation of being the “enfant terrible” of the EU, proving to be a thorn in its flesh. Orban has made no bones about his general support for Russia. In fact in July, Orban vetoed Ukraine’s bid to join the EU, although later his delegation walked out of the meeting allowing the other EU members to decide on the issue. In the past, Orban has also blocked EU funding for Ukraine. Behind all of this is Orban’s basic conviction that Ukraine cannot win the war, and should therefore be persuaded by its allies and friends to seek an immediate ceasefire, followed by negotiations with Russia. For the same reasons, Orban has also opposed EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico closely tracks Hungary’s Victor Orban in his attitude towards Ukraine. He has said the West’s approach to the war is “an absolute failure.” Fico has stated that he does not believe in a military solution to the conflict in Ukraine, and has instead argued that the EU should have a peace plan for Ukraine. Fico has previously agreed with Russia’s narrative about the causes of the Ukraine war, including Putin’s claim that the current Ukrainian government runs a Nazi state from which ethnic Russians living in the country’s east needed protection. Fico has also opposed EU sanctions on Russia, and seeks to block Ukraine from joining NATO and is disinclined to let it join EU. Finally, Fico is convinced that no amount of Western weapons can change the course of the war which Ukraine is losing.
Poland falls in a slightly different category than Hungary or Slovakia. The overwhelming political sentiment is anti-Russia, but undercurrents of antipathy to Ukraine have surfaced recently. In 2023 and 2024, following the European Commission’s proposed safeguard mechanism to protect European farmers from the impacts of its liberalized trade support for Ukraine, Polish farmers initiated a complete blockade of the Ukraine-Poland border in a move that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky termed as “the erosion of solidarity on a daily basis.” As Polish farmers dumped Ukrainian grain along the blockaded border and called for the resignation of Janusz Wojciechowski, the European commissioner for agriculture, representatives from Poland, Ukraine, and the European Union tried to negotiate a resolution for farmers’ concerns over cheap Ukrainian grain imports to local European Union markets. Since the war in Ukraine began in 2022, Poland has taken in some 1 million refugees from Ukraine. Now, the strain is beginning to show with some in Poland arguing why Ukrainian refugees are being treated so generously. In an important opinion poll, half of those surveyed said that state support given to Ukrainian refugees was unjustified. Many in Poland feel that Ukrainian refugees’ expectations regarding welfare benefits and wages are unreasonably high. Another widely held opinion in Poland is that the Ukrainians “behave as if they own the place,” and are loud & dishonest. There is no question therefore that Polish attitudes towards Ukrainian refugees are souring. The recently elected Polish President Karol Navrocki is on record as having said that Ukraine should not be allowed to join either NATO or the EU.
The other important development has been in Czech Republic, traditionally a staunch supporter of Ukraine. Indeed, when President Zelensky was humiliated by President Trump at the oval office in February this year, there was a spate of donations from Czech Republic for both humanitarian aid and weapons to Ukraine. All that may be about to change. Billionaire businessman Andrej Babis and his populist party have secured victory in Czech Republic’s general election last week, potentially steering the European Union and NATO member nation, Czech Republic, toward a more Russia-friendly stance as the war in Ukraine continues. After all, the party of Andrej Babis ran for elections on the basis of a manifesto which called for a halt to aid for Ukraine. Now that he has won, one might expect changes vis-a-vis Czech policy towards Ukraine. His potential return to power (political negotiations are still on in Prague) could also align Czech Republic more closely with Hungary and Slovakia, EU members that have refused military aid to Ukraine and opposed EU sanctions on Russia.
The bottom line is that Hungary’s Victor Orban will no longer cut a lonely figure in future EU meetings on the issue of Ukraine. It remains to be seen whether the above developments will lead to a policy impasse in EU over Ukraine; or unlikely as it sounds, could it lead to a policy shift in EU towards Ukraine and consequentially towards Russia?
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 