June 5 was the world environment day. But it came and went without a trace. If there is one area where it is hard to make Cassandra-like predictions, it is climate change. The incontrovertible evidence is all round us. Intense rainfall and flooding has been observed in several southern provinces of China, not to mention unprecedented heatwaves in Beijing. Devastating floods in Texas recently took precious lives. Searing heat and water shortage, the likes of it one has never heard of in Europe. And the latest data makes it clear that 2024 was a watershed moment for India, and not in a good way. It was India’s warmest year on record, with 25 Indian states experiencing record-breaking rainfall.
To put things in perspective, the top Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emitters in the world are China, US, India and EU (taken as one country). For the year 2023, China was responsible for a whopping 30 per cent of total GHG emissions in the world, followed by USA with 12 per cent, India with 7.8 per cent and EU with about 7 per cent. Combined, these four entities are responsible for over 55 per cent of global GHG emissions. So, if the fight against climate change is to be meaningful, it is this category of countries which have to make a difference.
Among the four, it is China which really requires global attention but has largely escaped it by hiding behind India at UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) negotiations and by claiming developing country status. For a country the same population (more or less) as India, it emits a huge amount of greenhouse gases, which is unparalleled in the world. In addition, China accounts for approximately 53.8% of global coal consumption which means that it actually burns more coal than the rest of the world combined. And China until recently was building six times more new coal plants than the rest of the world combined. While it is true that China is also the global lead spender on renewables, it is simply showing no sign of admitting that it should have reached peak emissions at least a decade ago. Instead, it has recently committed to peak emissions in the year 2030 although there are several reports saying it has already reached peak in 2023. It has also committed to net zero by 2060, which is simply too late. All this is a complete travesty of China’s commitment to fight against climate change. This is important since the more China takes up the limited carbon space available in the world, the less will actually become available for countries like India and those in Africa.
US has recently sent clear signals that it is no longer interested in taking a leadership role in the fight against climate change. It has pulled out of the Paris Climate Accords. Recent executive decisions suggest there will be more loggging of national forests in America and we all know about “drill, baby, drill” to ramp up oil and gas production. A number of environmental regulations have been rolled back by the US Environmental Protection Agency in March 2025. There has also been a pushback against the use of Electric Vehicles in the US.
The case of the European Union is most interesting. It was supposed to take on the global leadership role as the only “green superpower”. European Council President Ursula Von der Leyen announced the so-called “Green Deal” in 2019 with great fanfare describing the climate plan as a “man on the moon moment,” a revolutionary transformation of the European economy that would lead to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and changes to nearly every sector of the economy. But six years later, the Green Deal is unravelling. Far from charting a path toward climate leadership, the Green Deal has exposed European Union’s structural weakness and its inability to reconcile environmental ambitions with economic, democratic, and geopolitical realities. Over the past two years, opposition to the Green Deal has exploded in Europe—from farmers, industry groups and ordinary citizens and to populist political parties. The 2024 European Parliament elections saw a surge in right-populist representation, unified in their criticism of the green agenda. As a result, the European Commission has quietly but decisively begun to roll back many of the Green Deal’s key provisions. Recent reversals include watering down soil and chemical safety regulations, repurposing climate funds for military spending, watering down biodiversity protections, and removing the phrase “Green Deal” from the European Parliament’s reports. Even the 2040 emissions reduction target, announced recently, includes major loopholes and exemptions, such as allowing EU countries to meet future emissions targets by buying carbon credits from other countries. The signs are clear: Europe’s purported “green revolution” is in retreat.
India finds itself in a quandary. On the one hand, it is likely to come under lesser global pressure than before to take on onerous commitments in the area of climate change. After all, the principal polluters are looking for bailouts from their own climate commitments. On the other hand, India is also a vicitm of climate change and it needs tremendous amounts of finance to tackle both mitigation and adaptation. But finance is not likely to be forthcoming. That said, India may get valuable policy space because of the positions taken by the big polluters, namely, China, US and EU, which has been outlined above. India must put this period to good use by taking on ambitious climate targets, of its own will and volition, something that is in its own national interest. This window of opportunity for India will not be unlimited in scope and time. India chafes at external pressure; perhaps, it can prove to the world that it is capable of taking critical decisions at its own rhythm and pace.
In sum, the global fight against climate change is floundering and there is virtually no power to take on the leadership mantle in this crucial area. It is a sign of the times that the existential issue of climate change is not getting the traction it deserves.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 