The NATO Summit concluded on 25 June and the Declaration issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in The Hague is a remarkable one for what it does not say, rather than what it does. The following points suggest themselves.
The length of the declaration appears to be strongly influenced by President Trump. It has exactly five short paragraphs. Compare this with the thirty eight paragraphs last year at the Washington Summit (July 2024) and ninety paragraphs, yes ninety, in Vilnius, Lithuania (July 2023). Even so, this year’s NATO Declaration is ridiculously brief since it has nothing to say on recent geopolitical developments.
On Russia, the relevant language is “long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security” which is then linked to the commitment of all NATO Members to increase their defence expenditure to 5 per cent of GDP, a subject close to Trump’s heart. Compare this to last year’s language on Russia:
“Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shattered peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area and gravely undermined global security. Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security.” The language in 2023 read thus: “The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.” So, the question is what has changed for NATO? Is it the fact that President Trump is still mediating an end to the war in Ukraine? It is also interesting that NATO now believes the threat from Russia is “long term” rather than “direct”.
The most interesting thing about this year’s Declaration is that there is hardly anything substantial about Ukraine. It says “Allies reaffirm their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine, whose security contributes to ours, and, to this end, will include direct contributions towards Ukraine’s defence and its defence industry when calculating Allies’ defence spending.” It makes it sound like an accounting methodology, rather than a solid commitment. A far cry from past declarations which stated clearly: Ukraine’s future is in NATO. President Zelensky cannot be thrilled.
The NATO Summit Declarations of 2024 and 2023 also had critical references to China. The 2024 Declaration said among other things that: ” China continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security. We have seen sustained malicious cyber and hybrid activities, including disinformation, stemming from China”. Similarly, the 2023 NATO Declaration said: “China’s stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values.” The current Declaration has no reference whatsoever to China. China will be relieved that NATO is no longer focusing on its activities, whether benign or malignant.
In the past, North Korea came in for severe condemnation at NATO Summits. For instance: “We condemn in the strongest terms the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) WMD and ballistic missile programmes which violate multiple UN Security Council Resolutions.” This time there is radio silence on DPRK.
Past NATO Declarations have referred to the strategic nuclear force of the Alliance, particularly that of the United States, calling it the supreme guarantee of the security of the Alliance. The current Declaration makes no reference to this, perhaps indicating a subtle shift in policy from the US?
Past NATO Declarations have talked of EU-NATO cooperation and how the European Union remains a unique and essential partner for NATO. Again, the current NATO Declaration is silent on this aspect.
Considering Iran and Israel have been at each other’s throats and the US has used bunker busters against Iran just a few days before the Summit, one might have expected the NATO to say something on this earthshaking geopolitical event in the Middle East. But no, it is as though the events of the past few days in the Middle East never happened.
In conclusion, this NATO Summit in The Hague on June 25 was focused on achieving one single objective i.e. ensuring that President Trump is committed to the collective security of the Alliance outlined in Article 5. Indeed the very first paragraph of The Hague Declaration talks of this: “We reaffirm our ironclad commitment to collective defence as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty – that an attack on one is an attack on all.” In return, the NATO Members have all made a solemn commitment to raising their annual defence expenditure to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035. It should be clear to all that NATO at its recent summit meeting wanted, above all, to guarantee its survival & relevance by ensuring continued American support. Nevertheless, a total of just five paragraphs for the final declaration of a summit-level meeting involving 32 Heads of State/Government must be a first in global diplomacy.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 