It is becoming increasingly clear that there is some reordering of the world which is under way. Some of it had begun well before President Trump took office in 2025. It is nevertheless fair to conclude that his actions are expediting matters in this regard. While the broad contours of a fragmented multipolar world are discernible, it is hard to know what the end product will look like.
Monroe Doctrine Lite: After decades of limited engagement, the US under President Trump 2.0 has once again started focusing on the Western Hemisphere. US appears to have three strategic objectives in mind. First, immigration and border security. Second, drug trafficking, with specific focus on Fentanyl. Last, but not least, China’s strategic and economic presence in Latin America which is a source of great concern for the US. In response, the Trump administration has used a carrot and stick approach to countries in the region. For example, Mexico’s National Guard was deployed to intercept migrants travelling northward, essentially serving as an extension of the U.S. border. On drug trafficking, Canada is taking significant action to stop the production and devastating impacts of illegal fentanyl and other illegal drugs on public health and public safety. The Canadian Government is investing over $30 million to launch a Precursor Chemical Risk Management Unit (PCRMU) and $48 million to establish the Canadian Drug Analysis Centre (CDAC). Canada is working closely with the United States Drug Enforcement Administration to enhance existing collaboration and information sharing between our governments. But it is China’s increasing trade, investment and infrastructure imprint in the Western Hemishpere that is most concerning to the US. As a result of not-so-subtle pressure from the US, Panama was the first Latin American country to pull out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The issue of Panama Canal illustrates American concerns about Chinese influence. Though the Canal itself is operated by Panama, the ports on either side of the crucial maritime passage are owned by China. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to take control of the Panama Canal. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, was to buy controlling share of the two ports on either side of the canal, but Chinese regulators have reportedly put the sale on hold. Recent reports also highlight Chinese ownership of ports in Jamaica, Peru and Mexico.
In May 2025, China hosted the fourth ministerial meeting of the China-Community of Latin America and Caribbean States (CELAC) Forum in Beijing. Colombia signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative. Public opinion polling showed the United States is ceding ground to China in South America. Last year, trade between Latin America and China exceeded $ 500 billion for the first time. Brazil is hoping to take advantage of renewed trade tensions between the United States and China to boost soy exports to China, potentially resulting in an additional $7 billion in profits due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Last year, Brazil supplied more than 70 per cent of China’s soy imports. So far, US efforts to achieve its strategic objectives in the Western Hemisphere have met with mixed results. But the US-China tug of war may be expected to continue. Whatever else US does, it will seek to exercise maximum influence in the Western Hemishpere.
Dramatic Power Shift in the Middle East: The real geopolitical change, dramatic even by the region’s volatile standards, has occurred in the Middle East, otherwise known as West Asia. First, there was the horrific terrorist attacks of Hamas on October 7, 2023. Following that, Israel unleashed devastating attacks in Gaza leading to massive destruction of life and property. A complex mix of authorities governs the 5.5 million Palestinians living in the Gaza strip and West Bank. With the destruction of Gaza, the weakening of Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, it is fair to say that Israel holds the strings to the ultimate fate awaiting the Palestinians. Israel has also gone about defenestrating Iran’s proxies i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, with great success. The US has actively helped Israel in achieving this. But it is the latest action by Israel & the US against Iran that represents a pardigm shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East. In the short term, it leaves Israel enormously strengthened at the expense of every other power in the Middle East. Two forces were eternally aligned against Israel in the past i.e. the Palestinian cause for nationhood and the Shia actor Iran. Both were not just implacably opposed to Israel but challenged the very legitimacy of Israel as a state. Today, Israel under Netanyahu can justifiably argue that both these forces have been significantly weakened, if not destroyed altogether. The position of the other powers in the Middle East is disingenuous. On the one hand, they will all pay lip service to the Palestinian cause and express strong criticism of the US/Israel bombing of Iran. But it is hard to see them going beyond that. The only concern for some of these powers will be whether the Arab street rises in anger and fury. So far, there is very little evidence of this occurring. In the long term, it is far from clear that all this will lead to some kind of equilibrium, much less peace, in a region that is notorious for producing more history than it can consume.
Russia back in Europe: When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it seemed at the beginning as though this would be a cake walk for Russia. After all, one was a huge nuclear ex-super power and the other was a relatively small country on the margins of Europe. Russia’s stated objectives were to occupy territory, to de-nazify the regime and render Ukraine free from both NATO and Western influence forever. To everyone’s surprise, Ukraine fought back bravely and resisted for a while. Eventually though, reality imposed itself and Russia not only succeeded in occupying 20 per cent of territory but also inflicted disproportionate damage to Ukrainian lives and property. At the time of writing, there is a war of attrition in which Russia certainly holds the upper hand. President Trump’s arrival in the White House has also changed the dynamics of the Western alliance which supports Ukraine. Europe has been largely left to fend for itself and a diplomatic solution seems the only way out. But Russia can be expected to play hardball, having got the better of Ukraine on the battlefield. In any future European security architecture, Russia can and must be expected to assume a principal role. Europe thus has no choice but to reckon with a resurgent Russia.
China on the sidelines: It is easy to think that China, the other Great Power, would be pleased with all these developments for no other reason than it would keep the US bogged down and take the focus away from the Indo-Pacific. But that would be an incorrect reading of the situation. The fact of the matter is that despite being a Great Power, China has had nothing to do with the above momentous events and is not in a position to shape strategic outcomes in theatres other than its own. A Middle East in turmoil with a weakened Iran is simply not in the long-term interest of China which still depends on crude oil imports via the Strait of Hormuz, not to mention the strategic investment that the Chinese have made in Iran. And Israel has reasons to be miffed with China. Similarly, a resurgent Russia has more strategic room for manoeuvre and is likely to avoid total dependence on China. All things considered, an unstable Middle East and a resurgent Russia works against China’s fundamental interests. In all of this, China’s strategic options are diminshing, not expanding.
India’s Challenge: India’s primary challenge emanates from South Asia and the Indo-Pacific. There is a tendency in India to obsess about Pakistan and follow every move it makes. This is indicative of strategic insecurity which must be overcome. Frankly, there is no comparison between India and Pakistan at present and at least we must be sure of this, even if others are not. Yes, the US is encouraging Pakistan for its own strategic expedience, whether it is pursuing its interests in the Afpak region or indeed to try and drive a wedge between Pakistan and China. We can and should monitor Pakistan’s strategic moves in this regard but I hardly think there is justification for fretting and fuming. I think India’s principal challenge lies in the Indo-Pacific region in coping with China and conquering its own internal demons: the latter having to do with economic growth and social cohesion. If India does that successfully, other things will follow.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 