It is hugely risky to write anything definitive about a kinetic military operation which is still ongoing. And yet, something deserves to be said about India’s diplomatic and military moves in the past one week. There was absolute consensus within the country that the terrorist attacks in Pahalgam were horrific and condemnable. One does not need to be a strategic affairs expert to infer where the terrorists got their support from. Equally, the strong sentiment in India was that something needed to be done by our armed forces by way of retaliation.
Two excellent moves by India to begin with. First, to call it “Operation Sindoor” was brilliant for all the connotation that it entailed. Second, getting two wonderful armed forces personnel i.e. Wing Commander Vyomika Singh and Colonel Sofiya Qureshi to brief the nation on the military operation was a real masterstroke. The professionalism and symbolism of that briefing was noteworthy and there for the world to see. The larger strategic calculus is that “Operation Sindoor” may be part of a long term plan by India to tackle Pakistan in particular and terrorism in general.
The operation itself was characterised by restraint and precision. Restraint, because the Pak military was deliberately not targeted. Precision, because of the kind of activities that went on in the buildings that were targeted. Two key questions suggest themselves: (1) Would it be right to say India has achieved escalation dominance vis-a-vis Pakistan? (2) Can things still spiral out of control? On the first, this is as close to escalation dominance that India has come, keeping in mind all similar episodes in the past. The reasons are not far to seek. We now enjoy an economy ten times the size of Pakistan, overwhelming conventional superiority and an Air Force which is more than a match. That said, Pakistan is also in a bad way both economically and politically, thus helping matters for us. It is my assessment that total escalation dominance can be attained when India becomes the third largest economy with some 10 Trillion dollars worth of GDP with a commensurate per capita income. The terrorist attacks had two immediate objectives and one that was long term. The two immediate ones were to demonstrate to the world that Kashmir was anything but normal and the other was to disrupt internal cohesion in India, particularly from a Hindu-Muslim angle. The long term objective of the attacks was to somehow prevent or slow down India from achieving international political clout and overall economic heft necessary for total escalation dominance. For all these reasons, India’s stakes in avoiding a regional conflagration are much higher than Pakistan’s. We can all be proud of the internal cohesion that India has demonstrated so far in this period of crisis.
One indication that there are elements in Pakistan that realize the stakes for them are also high is the reported statement by the Pak Premier that it has already “given a befitting response” to “Operation Sindoor”. Regardless of whether or not one or two of our aircrafts have been downed, if matters can be allowed to rest here, it is no bad thing. Whether this is mere wishful thinking, we will all know soon enough.
US reaction has been unsurprising. They have so many irons in the fire that their only wish is to see that this does not lead to a wider regional conflict. After all, they have no Assistant Secretary for South Asia in place and do not have envoys in either New Delhi or Islamabad. Still, America’s implicit support for India was all too obvious. Israel’s support for India, on the other hand, was all too explicit. Today is Israel’s national day and one can expect warm sentiments pouring in for it from Indians in all walks of life. EU’s reaction was arguably meek as was Japan’s. Both of them wanted nothing more than for the two parties to exercise restraint. The External Affairs Minister stated, somewhat testily, that India was seeking partners not preachers! But it is also important for Indians to recognize that with so much of strategic turbulence ( Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen and the Indo-Pacific, not to mention the tariff imbroglio), the world at large does not wish to see another theater of conflict between two nuclear powers.
China’s reaction has been most interesting. It has made the appropriate amount of noise supporting its “iron brother” Pakistan, but has sounded like a Great Power calling for restraint from both India and Pakistan. Their media has gone overboard giving credence to mischievous reports from the Pak side, which was properly countered by our Mission in Beijing. Still, the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayas is quiet, despite massive troop presence maintained by either country. The importance of this in the current context cannot be overstated. Maybe, just maybe, the Chinese are serious about a rapprochement with India.
To conclude, this is an ongoing episode and so it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions just yet. It is however vital that India not take its eye off the ball. The overall strategic objective for India must be to achieve economic heft, to acquire military superiority and to maintain absolute internal cohesion. Important as it is, Pakistan must remain a sideshow for India.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 