The US Department of Defense is periodically tasked with preparation of an interim guidance in the form of a memo. It is usually classified and the last known one that I could see online was four years ago. Since this memo is secret and dated March 2025, the only way to get hold of its contents is through newspaper leaks.
The leaked features of the memo, which have not been denied by the US Department of Defense, if true, indicates major shifts in American Defence posturing and strategy. This was only to be expected what with the new Trump adminstration ringing in enormous changes in American foreign and security policy. Given below are the main aspects of the new defense doctrine along with comments:
(1) China is the American Defense Department’s sole pacing threat, and denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan — while simultaneously defending the US homeland — is the Department’s sole pacing scenario.
Comment: This is the first time the US is placing the Chinese threat in Taiwan alongside and on the same level as homeland security. This plus the tariff war unleashed against China ( US has imposed massive triple digit tariffs against Chinese imports, even while not sparing its friends and allies) makes it abundantly clear who the US thinks its main adversary is. Additionally, there will be a heightened focus on bunker-busting bombs and other weapons designed to destroy reinforced targets, which could be crucial in a conflict over Taiwan. The Washington Post noted that these strategic shifts are part of a broader effort to deter China from launching a surprise attack, often referred to as a “fait accompli” seizure of Taiwan.
(2) US will pressure allies in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia to spend more on defense to take on the bulk of the deterrence role against threats from Russia, North Korea and Iran.
Comment: It is clear that the US will at best provide a “backstop” (if that) and leave the job of providing Europe’s security to Europe. The big change therefore seems to be a reduced focus in Europe, no question about that.
More crucially, Japan and South Korea should take note: the main job of deterring North Korea (which is supported by China and more recently by Russia) falls on them.
On Iran, the role of deterrence would fall presumably on Israel and Saudi Arabia. Again, these propositions, if confirmed to be true, would indicate that the Middle East would likely get higher priority than Europe in the American scheme of things.
(3) The Trump administration also has a vision for the Indo-Pacific region. It wants Taiwan to sharply increase its defense outlays. The administration also wants to work with Japan and other allies to enhance deterrence against China. The Pentagon’s new plan involves increasing the deployment of submarines, bombers, unmanned ships, and specialized Army and Marine Corps units in the Indo-Pacific.
Comment: Presumably, the deterrence against China by co-opting its allies and partners would be in addition to its own defence posturing against China. US treating Japan and South Korea more favourably than Europe may also be explained by this.
(4) US attaches high importance to protecting American interests in the Western Hemisphere, such as ensuring access to the Panama Canal and combatting drug and human trafficking cartels in Latin America. The White House, according to the leaked memo, has asked for credible military options from the Pentagon to ensure unfettered access to the Panama Canal.
Comment: Monroe doctrine 2.0
(5) US believes that European countries should play a greater role in dealing with the Ukraine situation.
Comment: If the US means this, then Europe should be more involved in the mediation talks being held with Russia and Ukraine. The EU Commission President Von der Leyen is yet to meet President Trump. And its foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas was basically stood up by Secretary Marco Rubio when she went to Washington some weeks ago, causing her to miss the trip of the EU College of Commissioners to India.
None of the above should come as a total surprise. President Trump and his cabinet colleagues have been hinting at all of the above, either implicitly or sometimes even explicitly. Still, if the secret memo is true (and there is no reason to believe it is not), then it has the potential to fundamentally recast the international strategic landscape.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 