Two significant trilateral meetings went almost unnoticed and under the radar. The first one was a meeting between the Trade Ministers of Japan, Korea and China in Seoul on March 30. The second one, equally important, was a meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Japan and Korea, along with the American Secretary of State in Brussels on April 3. While other countries were posturing, Japan and Korea were quietly engaged in strategic hedging of the highest order to protect and promote their national interest. The first meeting took place before the announcement of the Trump tariffs on April 2 and the second one just after. How is that for timing?
The meeting of the Trade Ministers between Japan, South Korea and China on March 30 in Seoul was significant for a variety of reasons. First, they were meeting in this format after five years. Second, the Japanese-Korean rapprochement is now here to stay and it is extraordinary that the two countries which have such serious and unresolved political differences, have managed to put it aside and cooperate for mutual benefit. Third, this meeting was in anticipation of the Trump announcement and clearly, decisions by the Trump administration are at one level pushing powers in Asia to coooperate more among themselves. Indeed, the three trade ministers agreed to speed up negotiations toward a free trade agreement (FTA) between their countries, something they have not been able to do since the negotiations started in 2012. The Joint Statement wished a free, fair, comprehensive, high-quality and mutually beneficial FTA betweeen China, Japan and South Korea. It is as if these three countries second-guessed the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump. The Joint Statement then went on to talk of the importance of WTO reform, of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement of which all three countries are full members) and most crucially enhancing cooperation on maintaining stable supply chains. This last mentioned point is important in view of the disruption to global supply chains caused by the tariffs announced by President Trump. Word is that a trilateral summit level meeting of the Heads of State/Government of China, Korea and Japan will take place before the end of the year. It is therefore abundantly clear that regardless of Trum’s tariffs, regional integration between select partners in Asia is continuing apace.
If Japan and Korea engineered only the above meeting, significant as it is, it would have been understandable. But in a masterclass on strategic hedging, the Japanese and Korean Foreign Ministers also met with the American Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Brussels on April 3. This meeting was thus soon after the announcement of the reciprocal tariffs by President Trump which shook the world. The Joint Statement issued after this trilateral meeting was, arguably, the polar opposite of the one issued after the meeting of the Trade Ministers referred to above. The statement begins by talking of shared principles including rule of law in the Indo-Pacific. The Secretary and Foreign Ministers strongly opposed unlawful maritime claims or any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the waters of the Indo-Pacific, including the South China Sea. They emphasized their commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific and ensuring international law as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, including freedoms of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the sea, prevails.
The Ministers also emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity for the international community. They expressed concern about provocative actions, particularly the recent military drills around Taiwan, and called for an end to further destabilizing actions. They encouraged the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues and opposed any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo, including by force or coercion even while expressing support for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in appropriate international organizations.
The American Secretary of State and the two Foreign Ministers then emphasized the importance of NATO’s cooperation with Indo-Pacific Partners to ensure the ability to swiftly respond to security developments and challenges in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions. They neither named China nor Russia but you would have to be daft to miss it. Crucially, Marco Rubio reiterated American ironclad commitments to the defense of Japan and South Korea , backed by America’s unmatched military strength, including its nuclear capabilities. All sides confirmed that U.S.-extended deterrence commitments to Japan and South Korea remain critical to the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region. The three Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to bolstering defense and deterrence by advancing robust security cooperation and strengthening their respective defense capabilities.
It is hard to overlook the Trump Administration’s difference in approach to their allies in Asia, as opposed to their allies in Europe. It would seem that US is much more forthcoming about respecting its security commiments towards its Asian allies. This issue is worth watching in the days and months ahead, as President Trump reveals his cards about how he will eventually handle the People’s Republic of China.
But for now, just marvel at the way two middle powers from Asia i.e. Japan and South Korea, have gone about enhancing their strategic options and protecting their national interest. These countries have had best of both the worlds i.e. flourishing trade and economic ties with China on the one hand and an iron-clad security commitment from the US, on the other. They are not about to give up on this ideal arrangement anytime soon.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 