So, the all important encounter between Trump and Modi is over. On one end of the spectrum, many have called it a masterclass by Modi on how to deal with Trump. Yet others, fewer in number, have said the power dynamic between the two leaders is unpredictable and it is good to keep in mind that India had made smart, pre-emptive concessions to avoid the situation getting out of hand. But all things considered, there was no blood on the floor after the meeting and when compared to how the EU, Ukraine, Mexico and Canada are being treated by Trump, India can count its blessings.
The Indo-American Joint Statement is the first one I can remember in recent times where there is no mention of India’s candidature of UNSC and American backing for the same. This has less to do with India and more to do with Trump’s disdain for multilateralism in general and UN in particular. India will nevertheless need to draw appropriate conclusions from this. UNSC reform looks even more impossible under Trump. We may have to rely more and more on templates like Quad, IMEEC, I2U2 and triangular cooperation groupings like the ones we have with Australia/France and UAE/France. The rest of the emphasis in the Joint Statement is on defence, technology and trade. The acronyms COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accerlerated Commerce and Technology) , ASIA (Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance) , Mission 500 (doubling Indo-American bilateral trade to $ 500 billion by 2030) and TRUST (Transforming the Relationship using Strategic Technology) sum it up quite well. The fact remains it is India which needs to constantly keep pushing the US to realize the strategic objectives behind each of these acronyms.
A word on immigration and trade. These two will be problematic areas that deserve delicate handling by both at the leadership level. Illegal Emigration can never be in India’s interest and it is commendable that PM Modi has taken a stance on this issue. I remember when I was Ambassador in Bahrain, India’s view on this issue was slightly different. Even legal migration to the US and the West will present significant challenges for India and we must be ready for it.
On trade, India must grab the opportunity for a deal offered by the US side with both hands. That really is the only way out with the US, which is a large export market for India. Separately, we must also conclude the FTA with the EU. International Trade henceforth will be on a non-MFN, reciprocal and strategic basis and I am going to stick my neck out and say something completely heretic: there is no good reason for India alone to be WTO-compliant, when the major players i.e. US, China and the EU are playing ducks and drakes with the multilateral trading system.
Trump’s conversation with Modi appears to suggest that India may get a freer hand in dealing with both Pakistan and Bangladesh. So, India must not squander this opportunity and the window that has been presented to it. More crucially, it is Trump’s relationship with Russia that may actually secure more strategic space for India. The only exception to this enhanced strategic space for India, may be the way Trump eventually deals with China. He is still delightfully vague about how the US will proceed to deal with China. But there has been a fair bit of writing on how Trump is broadly inclined to accept spheres of influence. If true, India should worry about it. According to this hypothesis, Trump would be content with the US playing a predominant role in the Western Hemisphere (and perhaps the Western Pacific), allow Russia to have its own sphere of influence in parts of Europe and most significantly, allow China its own sphere of influence in East Asia. This will likely lead to a more assertive China on its disputed border with India. South Asia by itself is not important enough for Trump in the larger scheme of things, but he will not be opposed to a significant Indian presence. Which is why India needs to get its act together in its neighbourhood preferably going alone if it can or else, acting in concert with like-minded powers. That said, India should expect to come up against Chinese shenanigans both on its border and in its neighbourhood. This will doubtless pose a major strategic challenge for India.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 