The contours of the Trump administration are beginning to take shape. It would appear that with Trump, what you see is indeed what you get. He may have also meant most, if not all, of the things he said during the campaign.
Our EAM is quite right in saying that India is not one of the countries which is “nervous” about an impending Trump administration. That said, there is no automaticity in foreign and strategic policy, even with actors who are either benign or well disposed to you. So, caution should be the watchword for a country like India.
On the credit side, the general disposition of the main players such as Trump himself, Rubio and Waltz are huge pluses for India. One can expect the Trump administration to be more mindful of India’s interests when it comes to territorial integrity and extremism. There will also be less hectoring on human rights and democracy. If Trump puts an end to the war in Ukraine that will be great news for India. If peace also returns to the Middle East, which is less likely, that will be a big bonus. Trump’s dealings with Russia in putting an end to the war in Ukraine, may also cut India some slack in its own ties with Russia. We may also come under much less pressure on our climate policy although this is a double-edged sword: India does things like this only under external pressure, otherwise we go back to business (coal) as usual! All things considered, there may be an overall expansion of India’s strategic space and its options, which is very welcome.
On the debit side, many observers have pointed out that trade and immigration could prove to be problematic for India. But it need not be that way if India prepares itself adequately. On trade, it is vital that we try and understand what Trump’s political requirements are. India is not a big player (as China is) so if we can look at some of his contituencies and their needs, India can preempt the inevitable pressure that it will come under. On immigration, we will have to be seen as taking proactive steps on our side to discourage and prevent illegal immigration. If we can do that, we will have some leverage in our demands with regard to H1B etc.
Two things which deserve special attention. One is the iCET where we should proactively seek to maintain the momentum built under the Biden adminstration. There is nothing automatic about this, since the Trump admistration may have different priorities. iCET must continue to play a key role in providing the ballast of the Indo-US relationship. We must also take steps to expedite action in the Minerals Security Partnership, of which both India and the US are members.
A key thing to look out for is how Trump deals with China. While all the appointees so far are hawkish, on paper, with regard to China, Elon Musk is an important exception. Unfortunately, he is also Trump’s buddy and is normally the last person to talk to Trump, on any given day. Trump may therefore be inclined to listen to him. Musk has huge commercial interests in China and it is not certain that he will be able to take an objective view of geopolitical and security matters. India will also need to sort out its own attitude towards Musk and his firm Tesla. As I have pointed out elsewhere, there are two conflicting instincts that Trump may have vis-a-vis China: one, that he is seen as very “tough” with it, desiring to show that Biden was soft in this area; two, his desire to do a “deal” with Xi Jinping and portray that as Trump getting the better of Xi. It depends on which Trump shows up.
India will need to be both quick and decisive in taking action on the issues which will inevitably arise with someone as mercurial as Trump. The worst choice we can make is to postpone decisions and hope that the issues will go away. Given this, to have a small “Trump Cell” in the PMO staffed with a team that understand the issues, inter alia, of trade and immigration, is not a bad idea. On the strategic front though, it is great to have someone like the EAM who for the better part of his career in the IFS has dealt with the US and may be expected to know the American actors well, as also understand the levers of power there. Modi’s own chemistry with the American leader is also beneficial though we must use that only as a “Trump” card (pun intended)!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 