A small number of observers of the current global landscape feel strongly that World War III may be upon us. The vast majority of thinkers and writers, however, consider this fanciful and have every confidence that somehow the major powers and its leaders will pull back from the brink. But is the notion of a World War all that fanciful in the current context?
First, the question of definition. There are already three theatres of what may be called “hot war”. One, obviously is the war being fought in Ukraine, currently well into its third year. Two, the war in Gaza which shows no sign of abating. Three, the little noticed but equally destructive maritime war being prosecuted by the Houthis with deadly effect in the Red Sea. Conventional wisdom points to anything around three theatres or more, qualifying as a World War. This may sound academic but cannot be ignored, if only because it draws attention to the precarious state of the world order.
Any hope that the parties to the conflict in Ukraine will exhaust themselves on the battlefield has simply not borne fruit. If anything, the parties are doubling down. Ukraine has been pressing its masters in the West to allow use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and the Storm Shadow Missiles to strike deep inside Russian territory. Ukraine already hits targets deep inside Russia with drones, but the use of the above missiles would amount to clear and dangerous escalation. Indeed, Putin has already said that should the above missiles be used then it is equivalent to NATO declaring war against Russia, not least because without NATO personnel and its navigation satellites, these missiles simply cannot be used. Putin has also repeatedly warned that if Russia’s very existence is at stake, he will be forced to consider use of nuclear weapons. So far, most people in the West seem to think Putin is bluffing. Indeed, it is quite extraordinary that a bunch of retired American Ambassadors and Generals have written to President Biden that he should authorise the use of the missiles by Ukraine against Russia because Putin is bluffing. Coming from retired Ambassadors, this is dangerous nonsense, to put it mildly. But this is election season in the US and who can tell what might happen. Not to be outdone, Russia has reportedly deployed 16 ships, including seven carriers equipped with 48 Kalibr cruise missiles, to the Black Sea in the past one week. In this scenario, if things get out of hand then a full-fledged war between NATO and Russia is not beyond the realm of possibility. If that does not qualify as a world war, then what does?
The situation in Gaza, meanwhile, is deteriorating by the day. Plans for a ceasefire and a hostage deal look as bleak as ever with every week bringing further military escalation by Israel with plenty of provocation from the other side. If Ukraine is characterised by imploding bombs, the Middle East is now characterised by exploding pagers! Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant said not long ago that his country was being attacked in seven different theatres: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. The fundamental point to note is the war in Gaza has already spread to a much wider region in the Middle East. Again, Israel’s leader does not appear to be interested in a ceasefire, even as it is highly doubtful if Hamas and Hizbollah sincerely wish it. Iran is under severe pressure to act militarily as is Hizbollah. A wrong move could set off a series of retaliatory steps which would then spiral out of control. The Middle East has seldom been this close to a catastrophic conflict, which is saying something.
Yemen’s Houthis are still harassing shipping and lobbing increasingly advanced missiles at the Israelis to support the Palestinians in the Gaza war. For the West which boasts a serious navy, it is odd that no one has been able to deter the Houthis prompting the British paper “Telegraph” to declare that the Houthis have defeated the US Navy! What is the use of having numerous aircraft carriers and frigates, if the Houthis cannot be neutralised in the Red Sea.
Indo-Pacific is not seeing a hot war, at least not yet. But events between China and The Philippines in the past few weeks should alert us to what might happen if one side or the other miscalculates badly. In all of this, we have not even talked about North Korea and the unpredictable behaviour of its leader.
So, where does all this leave us with the question as to whether a world war is upon us? Christopher Clark’s book on the outbreak of World War I, “The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914,” is a masterly analysis of what went arong in 1914 and may well be pertinent in today’s context. The million dollar question therefore is: Are we again sleepwalking our way to a world war?
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 