Conventional wisdom on the American presidential election has changed in a matter of weeks. While Trump was considered by many, if not all, as a shoo-in a couple of months ago, the race now is considered either a tight one or Kamala’s to lose, depending on who you talk to. India may be one of the few countries in the world which is not losing sleep over who ultimately makes it to the American presidency.
The headline grabbing news over the past week has been PM Modi’s visit to Ukraine and that is understandable. But the really momentous visit has been the one which has stayed under the radar; the visit by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to the United States. The Minister had extensive discussions not just with his counterpart, American Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, but also with the American National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The talks reportedly covered the regional security situation, broadening cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and deepening defence industrial collaboration. On the last point, there was indeed something concrete. And that was the signing of the Security of Supplies Arrangement (SOSA) which is considered a pivotal agreement that allows both the US and its partners to request priority support for defence-related goods and services, basically to ensure that either country can maintain the necessary supply chain resilience in times of need. Consequently, India will be deploying the first Liaison Officer to the American Headquarters Special Operations Command based in Florida. The SOSA is not legally binding; on the other hand, the reciprocal defence procurement agreement (RDP) if concluded in the future, would be legally binding and arguably a game changer for both countries.
A real fillip to the ties can be the opportunities arising for American defence companies to invest in India for co-development and co-production of defence goods and services. The Defence Minister said as much when he expressed confidence that Indian and American companies will co-develop and co-produce for the world. Lest people think all this is one-sided, it is worth noting that the United States has emerged as the single largest destination for Indian defence exports, according to the latest data available.
The Defence Minister’s visit was preceded by the visit to India of Jake Sullivan in June this year when he met with his counterpart but also called on the PM. More crucially, EAM has been in touch with Secretary of State Blinken since the Modi 3.0 government took over. Indeed, on August 23 even while the Defence Minister was just commencing his visit to the US, the State Department approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to India of Anti-Submarine Warfare Sonobuoys. The American Defence Security Cooperation Agency notified the required certificate to the American Congress the same day of this sale to India.
The above equipment will presumably be used by India in the Indian Ocean where the Chinese have gained a permanent foothold. As I have also noted elsewhere, the full fledged Indian participation in the Bahrain-based Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) is significant. The press release following the Defence Minister’s visit says that both Ministers welcomed the ongoing Indian participation in the CMF and noted that India shall deploy Indian Navy personnel in the CMF’s Combined Task Force 150 headquarters in 2025. The proposal for India to be a full part of CMF was sent by me in 2013 when I was Ambassador of India to Bahrain, based of course on the advice of my Defence Attache. It has taken more than a decade for MOD to act on that proposal. There has to be a framework for expedited decision making in MOD!
It is abundantly clear from the above that the Modi Government is not treating the Biden Administration as lame-duck. This is a smart move and the strategic objective of both sides seems to be to “lock-in” as many things as possible so that it becomes immutable, regardless of whether it is Kamala Vilas or Trump Tower. This makes eminent sense since there is anyway a broad American bipartisan consensus on strengthening strategic ties with India.
US and India are two rough and tumble democracies and thus it is naive to expect complete harmony between the two countries on all issues. There will be issues like democracy, human rights or even Bangladesh where there will be differences. The challenge is to ensure that these differences do not disrupt the irreversible, upward trajectory of our strategic partnership. On current evidence, both the countries seem to be doing a good job on this front.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 