The attempted assassination of former President Trump on 13 July changes the fundamental calculus about the impending American elections. Before the horrific event, the election was broadly tied between Trump and Biden. The presidential debate, in which Trump got the better of Biden, may or may not have been a tipping point; but the shooting in Butler city, horrendous as it was, changes everything.
It is not over until it is over, of course. But it is hard to see Trump losing from here. Even if Biden is persuaded to step down, his replacement will have the uphill task of proving that he or she is up to the challenge. And it is almost impossible to get rid of the tag that the person replacing Biden is a second choice of the democrats and was chosen only when Biden became unelectable.
Against the above background, it is perhaps time to look at how geopolitics will change under Trump and Vance. So, here goes:
(1) The most immediate impact will be on the war in Ukraine. If there was any doubt about how a possible Trump administration will deal with it, all doubts were set to rest by Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, who said: I really don’t care what happens to Ukraine! This should send shivers down the spine of decision makers in NATO and EU.
(2) J.D. Vance has also said the US military should focus on China, affirming in typical Trumpian language: I don’t like China. He added for good measure that China cannot be allowed to build its middle class at America’s expense. Vance hints that American arms to Ukraine are better if diverted to Taiwan.
(3) A possible Trump administration will also push European nations to spend more on defence and take care of themselves. Vance has made some very controversial statements about European nations: he has praised Orban’s policies in Hungary, he has called Germany’s Energy policy idiotic and its defence policy insufficient. He has also lashed out at UK calling it an Islamist state.
(4) Predictably, Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov has welcomed Vance’s statement on Ukraine. It is interesting therefore that while the Russians may well love a future Trump administration and even wish for it, the Chinese will be alarmed by what they are hearing on Taiwan, for instance.
Where does all this leave India? Purely on objective geopolitical criteria, it is hard to deny that a possible Trump administration may actually be better for India than the re-election of Biden. But of course we have no say in the matter. On trade though, we must prepare ourselves regardless of whether it is on party or the other which prevails in the US. Since we have decided to deal with the US bilaterally, it would make sense to start looking at outstanding issues between the two countries and consider mutually acceptable solutions. Tariffs on US products and barriers to services must be on the radar and reviewed. We must also look at securing meaningful concessions for our own exports to the large US market.
A possible Trump administration will be a setback to the emergence of a multipolar world mainly because it will debilitate the EU, even while it seeks to confront China. The weakening of EU may not be in our interest but the US confrontation with China may bestow some much-needed strategic space. This is something that must be factored in while India crafts its foreign and security policy for the impending world of Donald Trump.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 