You have to hand it to French psephologists and pollsters. They have an envious track record when it comes to predicting elections in France. First, the polls said that in the European elections on June 9, Le Pen’s party will win and it did. Then, in the first round of the legislative elections held on June 30, the polls said Le Pen’s party will come first and it did. That said, in the second round of the legislative elections scheduled to take place on July 7, things are more difficult to predict. That is because of the complicated French system where it allows not just the top two candidates of the first round to go through, but also others who polled 12.5 per cent of the registered voters.
The poll scenario is also complicated by two other factors. First, the voter turnout has been high in the first round. This means getting 12.5 per cent of the voters is not a difficult threshold to cross and there may be three-cornered or even four-cornered contests in many of the 577 legislative constituencies up for grabs. Second, there are calls for forging a common “republican front” so as to stop the National Rally (Le Pen’s Party) in its tracks and prevent it from gaining an absolute majority in the French parliament, which it will if it secures 289 out of 577 seats. One way this is sought to be prevented is for all parties other than National Rally to field the best candidate against Le Pen’s nominee and for others to withdraw. It is not immediately clear that the far-left and the conservative right will necessarily heed the call of Macron and his Prime Minister who have appealed that “not one vote” should go to the National Rally. In an exceptional move, more than a hundred French diplomats have appealed, anonymously of course, to the people not to let Le Pen’s party win.
Despite the above, two outcomes look likely on 7 July, both detrimental to Macron’s political future. One, perhaps the more likelier, is a hung parliament. Two, a less probable but certainly plausible one, that is an absolute majority for Le Pen’s party which will mean that for the first time a far-right party will assume power in France since the infamous Vichy regime in the 1940s.
If there is a hung parliament, President Macron has the onerous task of calling on someone to assume the office of the Prime Minister. The charismatic nominee of Le Pen, Jordan Bardella has smartly made it known that he is not interested in the PM post, unless his party gets an absolute majority. The problem is compounded by the fact that Macron cannot dissolve parliament again for one more year. So, he will have to convince someone to become PM or resort to a technocratic government for the period there is a hung parliament, both of which will increase political uncertainty in the second largest European economy. Either way, Macron’s predicament is unenviable.
If however, the National Rally does end up getting an absolute majority on July 7 then that would be tantamount to a political earthquake in France. This may lead to an arrangement called co-habitation i.e. the President and the PM from two different political dispensations. It is not that France has not seen co-habitation before. But this time would be different because of the divergence between the election manifesto of Le Pen’s party the National Rally and that of Macron’s centrist party. First, on immigration, the views of Le Pen and her colleagues are bound to be hardline. Indeed, her party has propounded the concept of “national preference” which is based on controversial things like: no automatic citizenship for those born in France, illegal migrants not entitled to France’s famous social safety net, no sensitive government posts for those with dual nationality and mass deportations. All this will bring France into direct conflict with Brussels and may be even with the European Human Rights Commission. Second, Le Pen opposes defence arrangements within EU, something Macron is passionate about. Third, relations with Germany will come under the scanner if the National Rally has its way. Indeed, this is why the German Chancellor has expressed the wish for the French electorate to vote for any party other than Le Pen’s. Fourth, Le Pen’s party hopes to spend a lot more on energy and other subsidies that will cause a much bigger deficit in France than the current one which is 5.5 per cent of GDP. EU which prescribes a limit of 3 per cent has already warned France about it. It is highly doubtful if Le Pen and her party give a damn about EU in this regard.
All in all, France which is the second most important power in EU (first, if you take into account its nuclear deterrence) could potentially hamstring the EU. Franco-German motor may be expected to sputter and eventually stop running. Le Pen has moderated her comments somewhat on Ukraine and NATO. But it is clear where she is coming from; for her there are serious limits to French support for Ukraine. Russia cannot but be pleased at the prospect of Le Pen gaining political clout in France.
What about China? Le Pen and her party have said little. But she will be inclined to give China the benefit of doubt and not toe the
American line on “de-coupling”, for instance. That has the potential to create transatlantic friction as well.
All in all, the second round of legislative elections in France on July 7 are momentous not just for France but for the world at large. The real imponderable, however, is how the man or woman in the French street sees it. We will know soon enough!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 