One thing seems certain after more than two years since Russia invaded Ukraine and unleashed a war in the heart of Europe. While conventional wisdom is that there is a stalemate in the war, the prevalent prognosis by experts is that there is no way Ukraine can win this war from here. But perhaps, it is important to clarify what victory or defeat means in the context of the war in Ukraine.
For Ukraine to win this war, it has to regain all the territories it lost since at least February 2022 when Russia invaded it, if not since March 2014 when Russia took over Crimea. The latter seems more rhetorical as a war objective but the former seems critical if Ukraine is to declare “mission accomplished”. This means Ukraine must evict the Russian forces, which are occupying either fully or partially the following “Oblasts”: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhiya. In the current context, that not only seems like a tall order, it appears well-nigh impossible for Ukraine. This uncomfortable truth is known not just to the US but also to EU officials. And yet, everyone from Macron downwards has been saying that Russia must not be allowed to win the war. It is hard to fathom what they mean when they say that unless they are hinting at a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. For now though, all Russia has to do is maintain the status quo which it is doing comfortably. Witness the latest Russian ingress in Kharkiv, putting Ukrainian troops under severe pressure elsewhere. Ukraine is beset by a multitude of problems: shortage of manpower, lack of ammunition and problems of corruption, war fatigue and bad governance. In sharp contrast, Russia’s war economy is doing okay, military conscription is proceeding apace and President Putin has just won another term. It is not that there are no problems in Russia, but it would seem the ability of the ordinary Russians to accept hardship is much more than was previously imagined. They also seem to have bought into Putin’s narrative of this being a fight for survival for the Russian State and Civilization.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is waiting with bated breath for US assistance to arrive. But it may be a case of too little, too late. One little noticed fact is the arrival of NATO soldiers in the form of “special military advisers” in Ukraine. Poland’s President Donald Tusk merely confirmed what people knew all along. That tens of hundreds of NATO soldiers are already in Ukraine. This is a paradigm shift to which Russia cannot be expected to remain immune. Macron was not exactly being facetious when he contemplated putting boots on the ground in Ukraine and called it “strategic ambiguity”. All this has the potential to bring NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Ukraine now has serious weaponry which can hit Russia deep within its territory. A war between Russia and NATO is still implausible, but not entirely inconceivable. President Putin’s occasional statements about nuclear preparedness is likely aimed at this horrific eventuality.
Russia has meanwhile started consolidating its military gains and begun focusing on economics. The replacement of the Defence Minister by an economist may hint at rationalising the expenditure of the Defence Ministry. Putting a civilian in charge of the Defence Ministry also shows Putin’s confidence about his war aims. The National Security Council team has been reshuffled as a result. It is clear the Russians are planning long term.
Against the above background, the impending visit of Russian President Putin to China and his summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is terribly important from a geopolitical point of view. Putin will push for more security and economic assistance from his “best friend” Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, has just returned from a visit to Paris where he has been hectored to by Macron and von der Leyen on Chinese military support for Russia in Ukraine. Xi Jinping will therefore need to walk a tightrope. On the one hand, Russia making gains in Ukraine is in China’s short-term interest; on the other hand, China still needs the markets of US and EU for its goods and does not wish to risk further sanctions. Reading the forthcoming Putin-Xi Jinping summit scheduled to take place in China will be both interesting and difficult.
As I have said elsewhere, all major powers are jostling for influence till the American elections produce a clear winner and the European elections produce a new team in Brussels. It is clear the war in Ukraine will end in negotiations. It is equally clear the situation on the ground will not change substantially. It is simply a matter of time. In the meantime, the meaningless war grinds on consuming both lives and property.
India’s strategic landscape was adversely impacted when the war broke in Ukraine. This will change only when the conflict ends with a negotiated settlement. A diplomatic settlement in Ukraine will also potentially release Russia from its current junior status and excessive dependence on China; something that is also in India’s long-term strategic interest. Ironically, this would also be in Europe’s long-term strategic interest. After all, any durable security architecture in Europe has to include Russia, one way or the other.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 