It is conventional wisdom that Israel and the jewish lobby have enormous clout in the formulation and execution of American foreign and security policy. Recent events, however, have called into question the above reasoning.
A couple of factors have contributed to the unusual discord between the strongest of geopolitical allies. The first has to do with Israel’s war in Gaza and the civilian casualties accompanying it. It is now clear that most Americans disapprove of Israel’s war in Gaza; a Gallup poll puts the figure at 55 per cent. This is critical for the incumbent President Joe Biden who is running neck and neck with Donald Trump. Second, Biden faces a serious dilemma: he needs the support of the jewish lobby just as much as he needs the support of ALL democrats. But here is the thing. Last year a Gallup poll found that for the first time in more than two decades, democrats sympathized more with Palesitinians than with Israelis. Biden is thus walking a tight rope in a knife-edge election.
The other demographic shift in the US is that more young Americans are critical of Israel than their elders. Again, Biden needs the support of this group to win in November. Last but not least, immigration may have also led to the spread of Muslim population in the US. This has led to protests against Israel in the unlikeliest of places: Huntsville and Boone! Again, Biden will want to ensure that these votes don’t go to Trump.
There is also the small matter of chemistry between Biden and Bibi. They may have started off being polite with each other, but the relationship has clearly soured and the strain is showing. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of relative decline of American power. If the US cannot persuade Israel, of all countries, to do what it wants then you can scarcely expect China or Russia to be intimidated by American power.
Finally, both Biden and Bibi may want to see the back of each other. It is true that Bibi is up against the wall in Israel, but he is nothing if not a survivor. Biden on the other hand hopes to prevail against Trump. Bibi however may fervently wish for Trump to prevail. After all, with Trump in the White House, Bibi if he is still around may have a freer hand. With Trump there is unlikely to be a debate of right versus wrong and a discussion of niceties like civilian casualties and famine affecting children.
It is probably premature to say that US-Israel ties have changed irreversibly. With a change in leadership either in Israel or indeed the US, things could quickly revert to status quo ante. But there is no gainsaying the fact that the once indestructible relationship is going through a turbulent phase!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 