It is a truism to say that things in China are opaque. But even by Chinese standards, things under Xi Jinping are becoming more opaque. And so it was with the recently-held “Two Sessions” meeting.
The “Two Sessions” meeting refers to annual meetings of the National People’s Congress – China’s parliament- and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body. The National People’s Congress, even though a rubber stamp gives an opportunity, especially for the Premier of the day (Li Qiang), to outline in some detail the economic targets for the year ahead. This year, the “Two Sessions” talked of “AI-plus” initiative and focused on the ” new three” which refers to solar panels, electric vehicles and batteries. It is clear the Chinese economy is looking into the future.
In the past, the Premier read out from a prepared text and then addressed a press conference which no doubt was “choreographed” well in advance. Nevertheless, it was followed closely by foreigner investors, scholars and China experts for reading the tea leaves. At least symbolically, the Premier was supposed to be number two in the hierarchy. At the end of the day, the “Two Sessions” meet is a way for foreigners to understand how Chinese “democracy” works.
Imagine the surprise then when the much-awaited press conference by Premier Li Qiang was cancelled without explanation this time around. The following questions arise immediately:
(1) Is this Xi Jinping’s way of making sure no one else grabs any limelight other than himself. Li Qiang had already stated unambiguously in his report that: We owe our achievements in 2023 to General Secretary Xi Jinping, who is at the helm charting the course. Mao was known as the “Great Helmsman” so the above description was not lost on anyone.
(2) It is clear that Xi Jinping does not want a Premier like the one before i.e. Li Keqiang who passed away recently and was popular enough to attract crowds at his funeral. He certainly appeared to have enjoyed lot more powers than his successor. It may now be reasonably argued that there is no number two in the Chinese hierarchy at present.
(3) By cancelling a press conference, albeit a highly choreographed one, Xi Jinping was also letting it be known that he is not too concerned about what signal this sends to foreigners, about lack of transparency etc. This concerns the Chinese economy and is of enormous interest to foreign investors. But that does not seem to bother Xi Jinping in the least. It is CCP control and his own position that is predominant.
(4) Are we also seeing a more emphatic shift in the power balance between the CCP and the State Council/Government, in favour of the former. The Premier typically heads the State Council/Government. The Government is now merely an instrument perhaps to implement the CCP’s wishes.
(5) There are also other small tell tale signs. The CEOs of Hong Kong and Macau used to meet separately with the President and the Premier in the past. Now they meet with just President Xi Jinping with the Premier sitting in.
(6) There may have been other changes as well. Foreign Minister Wang Yi now apparently reports directly to Xi Jinping. This was hardly the case with Wang Yi’s predecessors. Our China experts may be able to confirm this.
It is well known that Xi Jinping has been consolidating his base and concentrating power in his hands. Xi Jinping is no longer first among equals; there is virtually no one equal or even comparable to him anymore.
While this development is not new and has been in the offing for some years now, the key question is to ask what geopolitical implications this will have for China’s partners and adversaries. From our perspective, it seems clear in retrospect that Ladakh could not have happened without Xi Jinping’s explicit instructions. Equally, things can improve only if he wishes it. The trouble for India is that our two leaders are not meeting anymore, so chances of improvement in bilateral ties seem bleak at least in the short run.
US and EU will have taken note of this as well. If Xi Jinping is the only one who counts in China, it is hard to attach too much importance to the likes of Foreign Minister Wang Yi or even Premier Li Qiang. It is Xi Jinping all the way, for better or for worse.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 