It is fair to say that a number of Pakistan experts have nowhere to hide at present. In the run up to the polls, it was widely predicted by many of them that the omnipotent military of Pakistan had rigged things in such a way that the old warhorse, Nawaz Sharif, will be “selected” as the next Prime Minister by the people. It is entirely possible that Nawaz Sharif may still emerge as Prime Minister of a coalition government. But there is no gainsaying the fact that the voters decided to send a clear message to the military establishment as to who the “boss” really was in Pakistani politics.
Consider the following. Imran Khan, the popular leader falls foul of the military before the polls. The military, not wanting to take any chances, puts him behind bars and encourages a number of Khan’s colleagues to either quit politics altogether or defect to other parties. Many, however, are allowed to fight elections as independents, perhaps a fatal error by the establishment in hindsight. On the other hand, the military makes it clear to anyone who cares to listen that Nawaz Sharif is the chosen one. Charges against him are dropped and he comes back from exile in time to campaign for his party, with his daughter and brother in tow. What could possibly go wrong?
In a classic demonstration of Murphy’s law, everything that can go wrong went wrong for the military establishment in these polls. First, even with every conceivable advantage, Nawaz Sharif and his party failed to win an absolute majority. Worse, the independents, the vast majority of whom belonged to Khan’s party, emerged as the single largest group in the results declared so far. From his prison, Khan congratulated the people of Pakistan for keeping faith in democracy. He stated a number of seats were “rigged” and urged his followers to take to the streets “peacefully” to protest this. Meanwhile, horse-trading has begun in right earnest. All this will play out with drama and theatre in the next couple of weeks.
The main implications of the election results in Pakistan are:
(1) The people of Pakistan took their vote seriously, despite serious odds.
(2) The military establishment has turned out to be less omnipotent than was believed earlier. Its reputation has certainly taken a beating.
(3) Imran Khan is by far the most popular politician in Pakistan today. As one Pakistan commentator put it, he has managed to score a century without a bat in his hand!
(4) A coalition government appears inevitable and a period of political instability may lie ahead. This is not ideal, given the myriad challenges that await this nuclear-armed nation of about 240 million people.
(5) It is for Pak experts to weigh in on this point, but India did not figure prominently in this election. This is no bad thing from our point of view.
(6) Did the “American factor” play a role in the electoral outcome? After all, it is an open secret that there is no love lost between the Americans and Imran Khan.
(7) The US, UK and the EU said they would work with the next government in Pakistan but did express serious concern over alleged irregularities. At the time of writing this, India has understandably not reacted to events in Pakistan.
What all this will mean for India’s policy towards Pakistan remains to be seen. A weak coalition government and a smarting military establishment is unlikely to provide a conducive environment for peace and reconciliation between the two countries. That said, abhi picture baaki hai!!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 