Trump Redux?

While the impending American presidential election is hard to predict, countries around the world are seeking to ‘Trump-proof’ their foreign and security policy. This is based on current wisdom that while Trump is not a shoo-in, it is virtually impossible to rule him out!

The one important point to ponder is that unlike the vast majority of politicians, Trump actually believes what he says. He therefore means what he says; this applies even to the outrageous things that he says on the campaign trail. Some may argue that Trump’s bark is worse than his bite. This is a dangerous argument. It is much better to assume that with Trump what you see is what you get!

The big question for the world is whether the US under Trump would turn isolationist and focus inwards in a significant way. After all this is the signature theme of MAGA i.e. Make America Great Again. Should this happen, the biggest casualty may be NATO. If the US treats NATO agnostically, then there are implications not just for Russia, but also the new entrants Finland and Sweden. It is however Ukraine which will face the Trump impact in almost an existential manner. Trump boasted recently that he could resolve the Ukraine issue in a matter of days, causing enormous consternation to Ukrainian President Zelensky. It is near certain that Trump will cut off military aid to Ukraine. In parallel, Trump is most likely to deal with Putin from a clean slate. Effectively, this means that a negotiated solution in Ukraine suddenly becomes possible; the trouble is this also means Ukraine will have to deal with Russia from a position of relative weakness. Territory occupied by Russia will most likely remain Russia’s. NATO may be weakened to the point where Ukraine’s potential membership in that organization may become meaningless.

The transatlantic relationship (US-EU) will be in for a paradigmatic shift if Trump makes it to the White House. The EU’s “Common Security and Defence Policy” is still work in progress and is arguably inadequate to meet all of EU’s security requirements. More important, the “Strategic Compass of the EU”, announced with much fanfare in 2022 and aimed at a stronger and more capable EU in the field of security and defence unambiguously states that the transatlantic relationship and EU-NATO cooperation is key to its overall security. Trump therefore is unquestionably bad news in that sense for the EU. It is fair to say that EU will be left largely to fend for itself.

China’s case is rather interesting. On the one hand, the Chinese hate unpredictability and therefore will be loath to seeing Trump in the White House. On the other hand, Trump will be totally free of ideology and will be ever ready to do a deal. The Chinese may welcome this aspect of a Trump presidency. They must already be preparing a list of products and services that they can import from Trump constituencies and looking at potential investments they can make in Trump companies and properties.

ASEAN will be most worried about a Trump presidency, also because it is hard to predict where Sino-American ties will be headed. This probably holds true for Japan and ROK as well. Alliances such as AUKUS and the Camp David security pact between US, Japan and ROK will face unpredictability.

What of India? While most aspects of our relationship with the US can be handled by following a policy of forbearance and resilience, it is the trade, investment and IPRs dossier that may prove thorny and intractable. Trump is a classic “Luddite” when it comes to trade ties and he will harp on the trade deficit with India ad nauseum. Moreover, how Trump goes about dealing with China will have implications for our own ties with China. Trump’s unsophisticated and raw approach to foreign and security policy means that we must be ready for a weakened Quad, heightened criticism of India in the area of IPRs and a more disruptive G20. UN is likely to be a low priority for Trump. Conversely, the personal chemistry between Trump and Modi should be a real plus. Trump is also less likely to focus on democratic backsliding and absence of religious freedom worldwide.

Lots of people may construe the above as not so good news. But Trump’s age makes it certain that this will be his last term. There is only so much one can do or not do in 4 years’ time. So, just consider it a roller coaster ride and remember to wear your seat belt!