For the uninitiated, “The World Crisis” is a magnum opus written by Winston Churchill published in six volumes and gives a detailed account of the First World War. As his American biographer William Manchester said: Churchill’s masterpiece “The World Crisis” begins with the Great War’s origins in 1911 and ends with its repercussions in the 1920s. Magnificently written, it is enhanced by the presence of the author at the highest councils of war and in the trenches as a battalion commander. It was often said that the book was Churchill’s autobiography disguised as a history of the Universe. With Kissinger dead, it will be interesting to know who might write a magnum opus for the present period in world history like the one Churchill wrote. Perhaps a well-known figure from the Orient for a change?
I mention this not because I am a fan of Winston Churchill (it is hard for any Indian to be that) but because the conditions characterising the world order today resemble most the period obtaining prior to and during World War I. Indeed, it is possible to argue that the present period is much worse since most parts of the world are in a state of profound of crisis.
We begin with Latin America if only because it is often a forgotten continent when you happen to reside in India. Argentina is bang in the middle of a politico-economic crisis (when has Argentina been without one, you might ask) with a maverick leader who has just assumed office. Venezuela and Guyana are at each other’s throat over a piece of territory. Overall, Latin America and Caribbean will see their economic situation determined by actors outside the region, with resultant loss of agency.
US presents the million dollar question. Will Trump trump (pun absolutely intended) Biden? All signs point to it barring unforeseen events such as Biden voluntarily stepping down in favour of a younger Democratic nominee or Trump getting into such a legal quagmire that effectively prevents him from running and holding office. How does the world prepare for Trump 2.0? What should NATO, EU and Ukraine do by way of contingency planning? How should China prepare for a Trump administration? More significantly, Middle Powers around the world such as India, Japan and ASEAN will wonder what is in store for them. The policy planning outfits of Foreign Offices around the world have their hands full and must be churning out briefs after briefs.
Europe is already in full blown crisis thanks to Ukraine. The war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating. But the advantage seems to be shifting to Russia. Trump has already said he can resolve the Ukraine issue in 24 hours. Zelensky has responded to it bravely, but deep inside EU and Ukraine must be terribly worried about a Trump presidency. Russia may consider itself a fortunate beneficiary of a Trump administration, but who knows?
The Middle East is up in flames and enough has been written about it. A wider regional war seems possible, if not probable. Some would argue the wider war is already under way. The question is how Trump will deal with Israel. There was a Trump peace plan officially titled: Peace to Prosperity: A vision to improve the lives of of the Palestinian and Israeli people. This was rejected by Palestinians earlier and the peace plan demanded virtually no concessions from Israel. Would Netanyahu prefer to deal with Trump rather than Biden? It would certainly seem so.
Africa has a busy election calendar in 2024, with 19 countries slated for presidential or general elections. Two-thirds of these elections are packed into the last quarter of the year. Half of the elections are uncompetitive and will see incumbents triumph. But it is the economic situation that should worry the world. South Africa is expected to barely grow in 2024 and Nigeria may grow by a little over 3 per cent. However, poverty will persist and the achievement of SDGs actually hinges on Sub-Saharan Africa.
Will the Indo-Pacific see conflict in 2024? This is the one thing that will matter most not just for countries in Asia but also the world, since Asia is now the main driver of global economic growth. The answer to the question above will depend primarily on China. With the US distracted by domestic politics in an election year, the EU distracted by Ukraine, Taiwan having just elected an “independent-minded” leader and the Middle-East up in flames, will the Chinese leader Xi Jinping be tempted by adventure in South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, or alternatively, will he hunker down to put China’s house in order.
India continues to find itself in a geopolitical sweet spot. Subject to brent crude not going through the roof, the new Government in India which takes office in May should usher in deep and difficult reforms in Land, Labour and Agriculture which have been elusive thus far. The other challenge is to make economic growth and prosperity more inclusive so that everyone has a stake. 2024 will therefore not merely pose challenges but also present significant opportunities which must be grabbed with both hands. After all, fortune favours the brave.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 