It is now clear in hindsight that when the Hamas carried out the horrific attacks in Israel on 7 October 2023 , it had certain strategic objectives in mind. Among them, the most important was to draw attention to the Palestinian issue by establishing a correlation between Israeli responsibility and the lack of fulfilment of Palestinian aspirations. In retrospect, it is hard to avoid the impression that Israel walked right into the trap set for it. The right thing for Israel would have been to carry out a proportionate military response and show the Hamas truly for what they are: a bunch of terrorists. But by conflating Hamas with all Palestinians, Israel may have committed a strategic error from which there is now no going back.
Any hope therefore that the Israeli response will be confined to specific Hamas targets in Gaza and limited in duration, turned out to be a pious hope by the international community. Israel’s response was not just massive and indiscriminate; it also demonstrated scant regard to civilian casualties, particularly involving women and children. Some estimates put this figure in Gaza at over twenty thousand civilian deaths. International condemnation was quick in coming. Even the US, Israel’s staunchest ally, rebuked Israel but to no avail. In fact, Israel within days of the incursion in Gaza, also carried out incursions in the cities of West Bank which saw increase in army and settler violence leading to the deaths of at least 288 Palestinian civilians.
While Israel was bombing the hell out of Gaza, beginning 17 October 2023 militias allegedly backed by Iran initiated a coordinated series of more than 115 attacks on American military bases and assets in Syria and Iraq. Within days of the Hamas attacks and the Israeli response therefore, there were signs that this will not be confined to Gaza. From 27 October 2023 to 4 January 2024, the US carried out multiple airstrikes in both Syria and Iraq in locations such as Abu Kamal, Deirez- Zor, Abu Gharib and Kirkuk. On 4 January 2024, the US military carried out a drone strike on the headquarters of Harakat al Nujaba in Baghdad, with the specific target being Mushtaq Talib al-Saidi , a senior leader held responsible for orchestrating attacks against US forces. In response, the Iraqi PM announced on 5 January 2024 that the Iraqi government would begin a process towards the removal of the U.S.-led international military coalition from Iraq.
In addition to the above, Lebanon entered the fray willy-nilly when Israel allegedly killed the top deputy commander of Hamas on 2 January 2024 in a suburb of Beirut through a drone attack. This part of Lebanon is Hezbollah territory and its leader Hasan Nazrallah vowed revenge on Israel. True enough on 6 January 2024, Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets (62 missiles to be precise) at an Israeli air surveillance base and said this was merely an initial response to the killing of the Hamas leader by Israel. It is hard to see either Israel or Hezbollah calming down.
As if all this were not enough, Iran suffered a deadly bomb attacks in a crowded market which killed 84. While the Islamic State claimed responsibility, some in Iran pointed a finger at Israel and the US. Iranian authorities vowed revenge.
So, the areas affected so far by the conflict in Gaza are: West Bank, Israel itself, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. If this is not regional conflagration, what is? The maritime theatre is also badly affected with Red Sea now a no-go zone for shipping giants such as Maersk which have decided to take the longer route via Cape of Good Hope. Except that the situation is neither good nor one of hope!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 