It has been customary for sometime now to label every year gone by as “Annus Horribilis”. 2023 was, alas, no different. As if the damage done by the Pandemic first and then the war in Ukraine was not enough, an additional theatre of war has now been added to the catalogue: the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza following the horrific attacks by Hamas on October 7.
In this scenario of global strategic turbulence, what are India’s main challenges in 2024? Plenty, one would say and our diplomacy will be tested to the limit.
The Israeli invasion of Gaza has the potential to adversely impact India’s geostrategic and economic environment, perhaps even more than the war in Ukraine. This is mainly, but not exclusively, on account of oil and what can happen to the price of Brent crude if the war in Gaza continues for an indefinite period and worse, expands geographically. There is the very real possibility of a wider conflagration in the Middle East, a nightmarish scenario for India with over 8 million citizens working in the Gulf states and the sea lanes of communication being choked, as we are now seeing with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea area. The Indian economy has recovered strongly but if oil prices go through the roof, all bets are off.
As for Ukraine, it is a pity that India’s words were ignored, by both the West and by Russia. India argued for a diplomatic solution right from the beginning. It is now incontestable that there was a possibility of a diplomatic solution as far back as March 2022, but this was vetoed by the US /UK, with implicit approval from then EU. What a grave error that has turned out to be, only time will tell. Equally, PM Modi’s advice in September 2022 to President Putin that ” today’s era is not one of war” was not followed by Russia in word and spirit. There are now ominous indications that the war will spill over into 2024 and may be even 2025.
India will need to find a modus vivendi with China in the medium to long term. The present status quo suits neither country, but it will begin to hurt us more as time passes. This is not to say we should cave in especially on our core interests , but perhaps to find a way to strongly convey to China that if it wants us to respect their core interests, then it will need to reciprocate and do the same with India’s core interests. We need to keep an eye on the future trajectory of Sino-American ties, since that holds strategic implications for our own relations with China.
It is in the fundamental nature of Indo-American ties that it will perhaps never be free of irritants and this is something both countries need to be conscious of. The trick is to manage the irritants in a way that allows the substantive relationship to move forward. For this to happen, India will have to engage not just with the State Department, Pentagon and the White House but also with Congressional Caucuses, the media and the think tank-strategic community. Easier said than done, but a job that is necessary from our perspective. Equally, the US must respect India’s sensitivities as much as they expect us to respect theirs.
Our ties with key European countries such as France, Italy and Germany are free of problems, but they need political impetus to break out of the current mould and grow exponentially, rather than incrementally as they do at present. Two things seem important in this regard: India must negotiate hard but negotiate pragmatically so as to conclude the FTA with EU as early as possible. Second, the India-EU Trade and Technology Council must meet more often and be outcome oriented. The EU may be distracted by Ukraine, but it is in our abiding interest to do both of the above.
2024 has already been declared as the year of elections with more than half of humanity going to polls. Our own election, as always, will be of vital importance. In addition, the one in the US and the ones in our neighbourhood (Bangladesh and Pakistan) will be watched closely in India.
India’s ties with Russia are crucial. And it was great to see our EAM Dr S. Jaishankar make a trip to Russia this week to iron out the wrinkles in our relations that have emerged post the war in Ukraine. Foreign Minister Lavrov saying Russia is respectful of India’s decision to diversify defence supplies and express readiness to “make in India” is very welcome. It is completely in our interest if Russia acquires the strategic space that it needs vis-a-vis China and India must do its bit in this regard.
India needs huge foreign direct investment for infrastructure, for combating climate change and for its social sector. Three things are worth considering in this regard. It does not make much sense for India to oppose the plurilateral discussions on Investment Facilitation that are currently on in the WTO. We must join these. Second, India should aim to conclude a top class investment treaty with EU for which the negotiations are ongoing. A good investment treaty with the EU can provide a massive boost to foreign direct investment. Last but not least, when the new Government comes to power in India, deep and difficult reforms in Land, Labour and Agriculture (among other things) must be done by taking the bull by the horns. Whether India can become a 10 trillion dollar economy and whether we can effectively combat poverty depends substantially on the above. This will also enable the transition of India from a balancing power to a leading power. (Read my latest Book “India’s Moment” by Harper Collins to know more.)
The World will be more of the same in 2024 as it was in 2023. Only more unpredictable, more unstable and more inscrutable. In response, India must basically hunker down, set its internal economic house in order and insulate itself as much as possible from the deleterious impact of the goings-on. Be prepared for more “Gray Rhinos” if not “Black Swans”!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 