In recent days, attacks on commercial shipping vessels particularly in and around the Red Sea have shown a marked increase. Two immediate repercussions are being felt. One, shipping companies have been forced to avoid the Red Sea route involving Bab el-Mandeb and take the more circuitous route involving Cape of Good Hope. This has obviously led to delays in commercial freight. Two, the costs of freight and shipping are rising not just because of delays but also because of increased insurance premiums.
This comes at a particularly bad time for world economy. Global economy was finally showing signs of emerging from a covid-led recession and tepid recovery was taking roots. 30% of global container traffic and billions of dollars of traded goods and supplies pass through the Red Sea every year, meaning that delays referred to above can affect oil prices, the availability of electronics and other aspects of global trade. This is something the world can do without.
So, who is carrying out these attacks and why now? It is generally believed that the Houthi rebels based in Yemen are behind the attacks. Who are these Houthi rebels? The Houthi movement is an Islamist political and military organization that emerged from Yemen in the 1990s and is predominantly made up of Shias with their namesake leadership being drawn largely from the Houthi tribe. They are in a battle involved with the Yemeni Government and with Saudi Arabia. The US believes Iran is behind the Houthi attacks providing the latter with military intelligence and tactical weapons. But Iran has vehemently denied this and said the Houthis are acting on their own, considered implausible by many. In effect, the Houthi rebels have used sophisticated UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), drones and ballistic missiles to attack shipping vessels. These are not your customary Somali pirates, that is for sure!
Why now? Well, the Houthi rebels say that this is in retaliation to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza following the horrific Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. But it is hard to specifically target Israeli ships what with flags, ownership and registration complicating the identity of shipping vessels these days. So a number of shipping vessels have come under Houthi attack.
If the attacks continue indiscriminately, it is hard for the international community to turn a blind eye to these Houthi rebel actions. The US has launched “Operation Prosperity Guardian” to deal specifically with the Houthi attacks. But the operation is handicapped by the fact that both Saudi Arabia and UAE, key countries in this regard, have not signalled willingness to participate yet in this American-led operation. Even European countries like France, Italy and Spain have been reluctant to participate in the purely American-led operation, saying they prefer to function under NATO command. The US so far has indicated that it will implement “Operation Prosperity Guardian” through its Fifth Fleet under the Task Force 153, as part of the Combined Maritime Forces based in Bahrain. It is worth noting that India has recently become part of the Combined Maritime Forces structure based in Bahrain.
Whichever way one looks at it, the Houthi Rebels cannot be allowed to hold the Red Sea maritime route (a global good) to ransom through their attacks on shipping vessels. At a time when there is a proliferation of plurilateral groupings centred on maritime security, it would be supreme irony if the international community cannot get its act together on keeping the sea lanes of communication open, free and unimpeded for vital global commerce.
Postscript:
At the time of posting this, BBC reports that a ” Liberia-flagged, Japanese-owned and Netherlands-operated” chemical tanker was hit by a drone launched from Iran ( according to the Pentagon) in the Indian Ocean, some 200 nautical miles from the coast of India. No reports of casualties.
If proved this is from Iran, it is certain to ratchet up tensions in the maritime theatre, as if the land wars in Ukraine and Gaza are not enough!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 