Now that the much-awaited meeting between American President Joe Biden and Chinese supremo Xi Jinping is done and dusted, there were no major surprises really. Nonetheless, a few remarks are in order:
(1) No Joint Statement suggests no real commitments to each other in writing. Remember the oral assurances of Xi Jinping to Barack Obama about not building military installations in the South China Sea. We all know what happened after.
(2) The Taiwan elections in January 2024 may be seminal. If the KMT(Kuomintang)-led coalition does win, it could mean a paradigm shift in China-Taiwan ties, which in turn will impact everything else beginning with Sino-American ties themselves. Everyone is worried about an outright Chinese invasion or amphibious landing with regard to Taiwan. What if China got what it wanted without firing a single shot? Sun Tzu’s Art of War and all of that. Just saying.
(3) The speech made by Xi Jinping to the US business community is worthy of scrutiny. The top 20 American companies were present and Xi gets a standing ovation. So much for the US trying to de-risk. It tells you the US companies need China as much as Xi needs their help in coping with economic headwinds back home.
(4) Xi Jinping says the planet is big enough to accommodate both China and the US. He also says China has no intention of surpassing or overtaking the US. This is rich, in view of recent Chinese actions to undermine what it considers American hegemony. Also, the Chinese do not believe Asia is big enough for both China and India. But then, no one has ever accused China of consistency!
(5) The meeting has helped paper over the profound differences that separate the two sides. No real breakthroughs. Even Fentanyl has been consigned to an anti-narcotics Working Group though Xi may have given oral assurances in this regard.
(6) COP-28 meeting in Abu Dhabi will be all about tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030, but in the meanwhile the real message to China is: burn as much Coal and fossil fuels as you wish.
(7) Yes, military-to-military communications may be re-established. In addition, Xi apparently agreed to pick up the phone if Biden calls himself. We will know about its efficacy when the next incident in the South China Sea occurs.
(8) On both Ukraine and the Middle East, discussions appear to have been superficial. Biden reportedly did all the talking; Xi listened and merely took note.
It is hard to avoid the impression that China needs this truce as much as the US. China faces political and economic headwinds as noted by many, and Biden is lagging behind in the polls.
Unless you look upon favourably at Xi agreeing to send a few cuddly Pandas to the US and Biden wishing Xi’s wife “happy birthday” even as Xi reportedly forgot his wife’s birthday, there were very few signs of substantial progress on critical issues. But if you were an inveterate optimist you are entitled to think that conflict between the two great powers has been postponed for the time being.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 