If one goes right back to the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there were still some sane voices arguing for a diplomatic solution. India’s statements on the issue always harped on a peaceful resolution of the issue based on talks. After 620-odd days of raging conflict, thousands of lives lost and immense loss of property, it would appear that there are finally moves afoot by both the US and the EU to persuade Ukraine’s President Zelensky to seek a negotiated solution. It is too soon to predict if these will be successful. But whether Russia will be keen for a diplomatic solution at this time is far from clear. After all, the much-vaunted Ukrainian counter-offensive has turned out to be a dud and frankly, the status quo suits the Russians more than it does Ukraine. As far back as March 2022, there was a serious possibility of a diplomatic solution on the table which was nipped in the bud by the West. Look at the cost being paid by all for that single act of folly.
The conflict in Gaza has done two things to the war in Ukraine: it has taken the headline focus away from the war in Ukraine even while accentuating the “Ukraine fatigue” already being felt in the EU and elsewhere. The US President who asked for combined humanitarian and defence assistance of some $106 billion for Ukraine and Israel, has predictably got the Congressional green light for the latter amounting to $15 billion, but not for Ukraine. As noted elsewhere by me, Ukraine cannot hold a candle to Israel in the American Congress.
With regard to the conflict that has erupted in Gaza, again sane voices are calling for a ceasefire followed by talks aimed at a two-state diplomatic solution. What Hamas did to Israel on October 7 was horrific and worthy of unconditional condemnation. Of course Israel has a right to defend itself by all means. But Israel is also a State in the comity of nations and as its PM Netanyahu said recently : “Israel and its military act according to the highest standards of international law in order to prevent harm to non-combatants, and we will continue to do so until victory”. This was in response to an Israeli Minister who said Gaza could be “nuked”. The Minister was dismissed by PM Netanyahu.
Israel is now under international scrutiny and will have to live up to the public statement made above by its PM. More importantly, Israel will have to determine what constitutes “victory” against Hamas and spell out what happens the day after. Israel still retains a lot of sympathy from its well wishers around the world, but it is in its own abiding interest to consider a negotiated, two-state diplomatic solution. There is simply no alternative to that. If it needs further convincing on this point, it need look no further than what is currently going on in Ukraine. War is never a long-term solution to problems; diplomacy is!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 