It is now highly likely that there will be a bilateral meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in California next month on the side lines of the APEC summit. It has taken numerous visits by American dignitaries ranging from Anthony Blinken to Gina Raimondo to John Kerry to Janet Yellen, not to mention meetings of Jake Sullivan, for the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi now to travel to the US to meet with American policy makers. Wang Yi, apart from meeting Blinken and Sullivan is widely expected to call on Biden himself. Not so long ago, the Chinese spokesperson said: communication for the sake of communication is not worth it and we ask the American side to be sincere. So, does this signify a change of heart from China? Not really. China is playing along in the full knowledge that America is currently distracted by the goings-on in West Asia. The Xi Jinping-Joe Biden meeting is worth watching, to keep a look out for “guardrails” so as to ensure that competition in Sino-American ties does not veer to conflict. There appears to be convergence between the two sides that a temporary truce suits both countries. Nothing more should be read into this development.
That said, the recent spat between China and Philippines in the South China Sea did evoke a strong reaction from the US which cited its treaty alliance with Philippines, warning China that it would not stand idly by. The American side will reportedly raise the incident with China when Biden and Xi meet. Expect China to respond by referring to the nine dash line. But China does not even have a Defence Minister at this time, so one will have to wait and see. But the departure of the former Chinese Defence Minister may be no bad thing; he was sanctioned by the US and the new Defence Minister whoever he may be (the only “she” in China is “Xi”) could make it easier for a meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.
The one thing on which both countries’ interests may align is in ensuring that there is no wider conflagration in the Middle East. Biden will not want things to spin out of control in the Middle East with elections looming large. And with the Chinese economy slowing down, Xi Jinping can do without oil prices going through the roof and a global recession taking root. But the US is concerned that China has not condemned Hamas and appears overtly pro-Palestinian. US would also want China to exercise influence on Iran. It is not evident China will readily oblige.
In a concrete development, two Working Groups have been set up between the US and China: one dealing with financial issues and the other dealing with economic issues. Sino-American engagement is well and truly under way. China’s objectives in this regard are clear: to ensure that there are no restrictions placed on China with regard to sensitive technologies, critical minerals and semi-conductors. The Americans have been talking about a “small yard and high fence”. The Chinese preferably want no yard and certainly no fence! India, which has signed up for a “US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology” should follow these discussions closely.
The other thing to watch out for is an emerging axis between China, Russia and Iran. It is tentative at present, but indications are these countries will increasingly coordinate their positions on the Middle East and elsewhere. This cannot but be a matter of concern for the US and the West. Xi Jinping in his meeting with Biden would rather talk about the Middle East, Ukraine and the North Korea’s weapons program than about the thorny bilateral issues such as commercial espionage, cyber attacks and its own aggressive actions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
China will gauge the strategic will and/or strength of the US in these bilateral conversations. After all, the US is stretched, militarily speaking, with Gaza and Ukraine. And to top it all this happens to be election season in the US. It is after making a detailed strategic assessment that China will decide whether to take forward the thaw in its ties with America or to continue its line of confrontation. Whether China chooses the former or the latter, has profound implications for India since it affects its margin for strategic manoeuvre. In an interesting move, the Pentagon released its annual report to Congress even as Wang Yi was in the US. The crux of the Pentagon Report is: China is rapidly modernising its armed forces, expanding its nuclear arsenal and hopes to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049; it clearly states that China continues to be the “pacing challenge” for the US. The Chinese Defence Ministry has predictably blasted the Pentagon Report to Congress saying it distorts the country’s security policy and military strategy and over hypes the Chinese military threat. In light of this, it is better not to be too optimistic about what deliverables can be achieved in the Biden-Xi talks. Still, jaw-jaw in California is better than war-war in the Taiwan Strait.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 