Analysts and observers had always underscored two things about the War in Ukraine. One, this will not be a short duration war in which one side will demolish the other and claim victory. Two, the longer the war goes on, “Ukraine fatigue” could set in, handing Russia an important strategic advantage.
There is now hard evidence that both those predictions are coming true. Everyone now realizes this war is far from over and is becoming one of attrition. The other “Ukraine fatigue” factor has perhaps kicked in sooner than one expected. The first warning signals came from Poland which was ironic because it started out as a staunch supporter of Ukraine. In a surprise move, Poland sought to extend the ban on import of food grains from Ukraine to protect its farmers. Indeed, Poland was not the only one. Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia joined Poland in banning outright Ukrainian food grains from April to September so that their countries are not flooded with grain imports, to the detriment of their farmers. So much for European solidarity! The Polish change of heart was strongest, may be because it is heading for polls in October. The Polish PM said it would not open up its borders to Ukrainian food grains, regardless of the decisions by the “clerks in Brussels”, a derisive reference to the European Commission in Brussels. Ukraine’s President Zelensky may have overplayed his card when in a speech at the UN General Assembly he said, in an oblique reference to Poland and others, that some countries were only pretending to support Ukraine while the latter was waging war against Russia. This prompted an angry reaction from the Polish PM who told President Zelensky “never to insult the Polish people” as he did in his speech at the UN. And soon thereafter, Poland announced that it was no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine and that Poland needed them for its own defence. The Polish President Duda walked back some of the above remarks, but the damage had been done. Poland is heading to the polls and one will have to wait and see how much of a factor Ukraine is for the electorate.
Meanwhile, the poll results in Slovakia may be a hint of things to come. In results just in, Slovak politician Robert Fico has won and will try and form a coalition government. Normally, what happens in Slovakia stays in Slovakia. But Robert Fico is clearly anti-Ukraine and may definitely be considered pro-Russia, which these days is equivalent to verbal abuse in the Western world. Hungary’s Victor Orban suddenly does not seem as lonely a politician as he was just a few months ago. He has company in Europe.
As if all this were not alarming enough, the US has managed to embarrass itself, as is its wont these days. The American Congress just voted last minute which will keep the Government from shutting down completely, but at least $ 24 Billions in aid to Ukraine will hang fire till mid-November. This at a time when the Ukrainian counter-offensive is neither an offensive nor is it able to counter Russia on the battlefield. If this is the situation with Biden, imagine what it would be with Trump in the White House.
President Putin must be rubbing his hands with glee!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 