The much-awaited bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping on the side lines of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg did not take place, unless you count the brief interaction between the leaders while they were present at the BRICS Leaders’ Lounge. Somehow, this seemed even less of an interaction than a “pull aside”, something all diplomats recognize as a valid interaction during multilateral meetings. So, what is going on between the two Asian giants?
Issues of procedure and substance appear to dog the two countries. It is not clear who wanted a meeting in the first place and when? The Chinese readout after the above interaction said this was at India’s request. India demurred saying there was a longstanding Chinese request for a bilateral meeting. Even the nature of the interaction is a matter of differing interpretation. The Indian side called it an “informal conversation”. The Chinese side called it a “candid and in-depth exchange of views”.
The readout from both sides was also very different for the emphasis and for what it did not say. The Indian readout underlined that the “maintenance of peace and tranquillity at borders and observing and respecting the LAC was essential for the normalisation of India-China relationship”. The Chinese side stated that the border issue must be treated “properly” by India while bearing in mind “the overall interest of their bilateral relations”. The Indian side stated that the “two leaders agreed (emphasis mine) to ask their respective officials to intensify efforts for expeditious disengagement and de-escalation”. The Chinese readout studiously avoided the use of either disengagement or de-escalation and seemed to stick to their customary stand on the issue of putting aside the border problem and getting on with other aspects of bilateral ties.
One thing seems certain and that is Xi Jinping will make it to the Delhi G20 Summit. Since hope springs eternal in the breasts of both Indians and Chinese (perhaps more in the former than the latter), there could be a “proper” (pun intended for our Chinese friends) sit-down bilateral meeting between the two leaders to discuss the border issue in some detail. If that does not happen, bilateral ties may be expected to languish.
For now though, all eyes are on New Delhi and the G20 Summit which will take place on September 9 and 10. The outcome document which emanated from the G20 Trade Ministers meeting in Jaipur yesterday (August 25) provides a template for the Final Leaders’ Declaration when it comes to the paragraph on Ukraine. What the Trade Ministers did yesterday was to repeat the language verbatim from the Bali Leaders’ Declaration on Ukraine with an asterisk. The asterisk in the footnote clarifies that Russia rejected the inclusion of geopolitical para 32 (dealing with Ukraine) on the basis that it does not conform to the G20 mandate while recognizing the status of para 32 as Chair’s Summary. Russia obviously agreed with the rest of the text. Interestingly, China also stated that the G20 Trade Ministers meeting is not the right forum to discuss geopolitical issues and did not support the inclusion of the geopolitical-related content in para 32. Yet another paragraph 33 talks about upholding international law and defending the principles enshrined in the UN Charter. This para 33 ends with our PM’s words: today’s era must not be of war. This paragraph was accepted in toto by both Russia and China.
Indian officials can now breathe easy since this can be replicated in the final Delhi Leaders’ Declaration to be issued on September 10. The rest of the Declaration should be substantive enough, considering the extensive and wide-ranging meetings that have been held during India’s presidency.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 