Are Proxy Wars back in vogue?

The cold war period was characterised by proxy wars fought between the then super powers i.e. the USA and the USSR. With the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the advent of the unipolar moment, there was no question of proxy wars. There was direct military intervention by the only superpower, namely, the United States whether it was to liberate Kuwait or to invade Iraq. The US simply did not have any rival that was its match, so the era was one of unilateral interventions by the United States, whenever and wherever it wished, sometimes with disastrous consequences for all concerned.

The events of the last few years however point to a disquieting pattern: the return of the proxy wars. The most significant proxy war at present is the one in Ukraine. Technically, the war may be between Russia and Ukraine, but no one is fooled. Ukraine would simply have never been in a position to fight against Russia, without military assistance from the US in particular; and Russia views NATO as the existential threat, not Ukraine. Even now, the nightmare scenario is one in which NATO gets directly drawn into a fight with Russia, with catastrophic geopolitical consequences.

The coup in Niger has all the makings of a proxy war. While it was initially a case of a putsch, pure and simple, it is now gradually turning into a battleground between the West (led by France) and Russia. Indeed, Russian flags were seen in the aftermath of the coup in Niger. The infamous Wagner Group did try to take advantage of the situation, to no avail. But the situation is far from resolved, with a tug of war between the putschists and the former President backed by the West and by the majority of the African countries. The exceptions are: Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso. The situation is fluid but being closely monitored. Could it be a battleground for yet another proxy war?

The scrap between a Chinese coast guard vessel and a Philippine military supply boat led to a resurgence of tensions in the South China Sea. Chinese used water cannons and Philippines summoned the Chines Envoy in manila to lodge a protest. The US State Department issued a statement saying that an attack on Philippine boats etc would lead to US invoking defence commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty. While the war of words continues, it is hard to avoid the impression that it is simply a matter of time before the South China Sea becomes a battleground for a proxy war between US and China. The same goes for Taiwan, which is of course the core of all core interests, as far as China is concerned. Taiwan would be the ultimate proxy war.

North Korea is next and the sabre rattling by its leader Kim Jong Un when he launched an intercontinental ballistic missile in July 2023 elicited a strong response from not just South Korea, but from Japan and the United States. The US is concerned about North Korea’s actions and is trying hard for a rapprochement between Japan and South Korea, which appears plausible. Around the same time, both China and Russia sent delegations to Pyongyang as if to show support amid criticism of its actions by US, Japan and South Korea. North Korea could easily become yet another proxy war.

Both Sudan and Yemen are in situations that can only be described as fragile. And in both cases, proxy wars cannot be ruled out. In the case of Yemen, it is one between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In the case of Sudan, it really is becoming a Saudi-UAE proxy war. And so the list goes on.

So, why are proxy wars back in vogue? One plausible reason is that the unipolar moment has ended and a multipolar world order is yet to take shape. The world order is therefore characterised by uncertainty which reigns in the midst of a “polycrisis”. All this perhaps makes it conducive for big powers to flex their muscles in their backyard. After all, there is no global policeman to restrain their actions. The trouble is that these proxy wars have the effect of making an uncertain and chaotic world more uncertain and more chaotic.