Is China rethinking ties with India?

It is a well known secret that Sino-Indian ties could not possibly be worse. The two leaders Modi and Xi Jinping had met at least 18 times before 2019; following the Ladakh border conflict, the two leaders have met just once in Bali in November 2022. Until recently, everyone thought this was a face to face meeting involving exchange of mere pleasantries. But now there are reports that the two leaders did go beyond pleasantries. The readout by the two sides makes interesting reading. First, it was the Chinese Foreign Ministry that put out a statement following a meeting at Johannesburg this week between India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese foreign policy Czar Wang Yi. The statement suggested that these talks were a follow up on the “consensus reached by Modi and Xi Jinping on stabilizing bilateral relations” following their face to face meeting at Bali. Since this is the first time many Indians were hearing about this, the Ministry of External Affairs through its spokesman confirmed that there was indeed a ” general discussion on the need to stabilise bilateral relations” between the two leaders. You do not have to be a professional diplomat to see the difference in the two sides’ characterisation of the face to face meeting between Modi and Xi Jinping. The Chinese side is talking of a “consensus” and the Indian side is referring to a “general discussion”. Both sides, to be fair, agree that the subject matter of the limited talks were about stabilising bilateral ties.

At one level, this difference in perception should not come as a surprise. Right from the onset of the conflict in Ladakh, the Chinese side has stubbornly insisted that the border problem must be set aside and not allowed to interfere with the development of bilateral ties in other areas. India, on the other hand, has steadfastly maintained that the border area must be tackled by China through de-escalation and disengagement for bilateral ties to resume in a normal fashion. As the External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar has said repeatedly, having thousands of troops on the border is not normal and this abnormal situation must end. He also put the onus for this on China, since the problem was precipitated by them and not us.

So, why is China talking in terms of a “consensus” having been reached by the two leaders at Bali. Has anything changed fundamentally? Not by the looks of it. One way of interpreting this is that China may be extending an olive branch to India. Evidence that this may be true, comes from a number of Chinese scholars and people like Kishore Mahbubani (who is close to the powers that be in China) who have been putting forward the proposition that the Ladakh incidents were an “accident” and that both countries should now kiss and make up. This seems hardly credible, but there it is.

It has been hard to gauge China’s motives as to why it did what it did in Ladakh in 2020. A variety of theories have been floated by experts, but the “accident theory” seems like a new one. Regardless of the merit of this explanation, one thing is clear: it is hard to understand what China has really achieved by poking a sleeping elephant and opening up another front with India. Perhaps China realizes this fact now; equally perhaps, China wishes to focus exclusively on its battle with the US. Who knows? After all, we are dealing with a country where the Foreign Minister is here today and gone tomorrow!

Chinese explanation of India’s China policy is interesting, as gauged from Global Times, which serves as a mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party. First, it says India often plays the victim card following the heavy defeat it suffered in 1962. Second, it accuses India for having a superiority complex due to it being the “world’s largest democracy”. Third, it says India wishes to catch up with China as the future factory of the world. Lastly, the Chinese believe India is good at playing the game of “balance of power”. Interestingly, Global Times admits that before 2020 India did not “openly take sides between US and China”. This is as close to an admission by China as it can, that the Ladakh events provoked by it have pushed India into a closer embrace of the US. This is arguably the opposite of what was intended by China.

Regardless of the above, it would appear that in the short term Sino-Indian ties will remain frosty at best and inimical at worst. Witness the emergence again of the issue of stapled visas for Indian nationals belonging to Arunachal Pradesh. It is going to be a long haul for both sides before a semblance of normalcy is restored in the relationship.