Sino-American ties are again the talk of the town. Since the marathon conversation lasting hours between US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese foreign policy czar Wang Yi in May 2023 in Vienna, there has been a flurry of bilateral meetings between the two countries. But here is the thing. All visits have been unidirectional i.e. from US to China. Consider this. Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Climate Envoy John Kerry have all made visits to China over the last two months. But there have been no reciprocal visits from China to the US. What is more, the Chinese have still not responded to the US request for talks between the two militaries. This last is a cause for concern given the tense relations between the two countries and the possibility of a flare-up in the Taiwan Strait or the South China sea. What is more, in all the above conversations, the unmistakeable impression that emerges is that the Americans want the dialogue with China much more than the Chinese themselves do. Janet Yellen bowing before the Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng will be the enduring optics for a while.
All of the above could be part of Chinese power play. It may also be based on an assessment, right or wrong, by China that the US does not have the bandwidth to take on two military fronts: one in Ukraine and the other, hypothetically, in the Taiwan Strait or the East/South China sea. There is no gainsaying the fact that the longer the conflict in Ukraine drags on, the better it is for China. This is particularly the case since recent reports talk of some Russian success on the battlefield. The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly bestowed more strategic space to China; for most others, it has had the reverse effect of diminution of strategic space, which certainly has been the case for the US and for countries like India.
It is against this backdrop that the grand old man of diplomacy, Henry Kissinger, undertook a visit to China. Kissinger was treated like a King and met President Xi Jinping, not to mention others who matter in China. Xi Jinping was fulsome in his praise for Kissinger and the reasons are not far to seek. Kissinger is of the firm view that it is incumbent upon the US to carry out a rapprochement with China as soon as possible. What is more, Kissinger is absolutely convinced that confrontation with China does not serve America’s national interest. If you think this line of reasoning and his own visit undermines American policy towards China, then you would be absolutely right. Hence the clarification from State Department that Kissinger was in China as a private citizen and not on behalf of President Biden. But Kissinger is no ordinary citizen and the Chinese know that only too well. Xi Jinping had done his homework when he said that not only is Kissinger 100 years old, but that this was also his hundredth visit to China. Xi Jinping also said that China does not forget its old friends.
The question on everyone’s mind is: can Kissinger pull it off for a second time? After all, he was the architect of the policy in 1971 when US successfully courted China altering the geopolitical landscape forever. The truth however is that the Americans probably understand China much better now than they did back in 1971. And if there is an issue on which there is bipartisan consensus inside the Beltway, it is China. This may not change anytime soon.
The best that can happen to the Sino-American relationship in the medium-term is the establishment of some guardrails so that the ties don’t deteriorate into outright conflict. The desire for this outcome however may be more from the American side since the Chinese are still playing hardball. The evolving situation in this regard bears close watching.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 