While the media has understandably devoted lot of attention to the PM’s successful visit to the US, the one which is now about to take place i.e. PM Modi’s visit to France on July 13/14 is, in my view, of even more importance for India.
India has about thirty-odd strategic partnerships with various countries. But if there is one partnership which is undergirded by complete strategic convergence, that is indisputably the Franco-Indian one. Consider this. India wishes to follow an independent foreign policy; so does France. India practices strategic autonomy; so does France. India wishes to see a stable, multipolar world; so does France. Over and above all this, India and France are committed to values such as democracy, pluralism and secularism. Small wonder then that when the whole Western world had declared India a pariah following the 1998 nuclear tests, it was France and France alone which understood India’s actions and established the first-ever strategic partnership with India. This year, India and France are thus celebrating the 25th anniversary of that significant moment in history. It is fitting that PM Modi will make the trip to take part in the Bastille Day parade on July 14; even more symbolically, Indian armed forces will march past alongside their French brothers and sisters on Champs Elysees. And if that were not enough, the famous Rafale Aircraft will dominate the skyline.
If you think the visit is all about pomp and circumstance, you are mistaken. Substantive conversations and meetings are expected and progress will doubtless be made in the so-called tripod which forms the bedrock of the relationship: defence, nuclear and space. In defence, we may see agreements which will finally help the hitherto buyer-seller relationship between the two countries move to that between an investor and investee, with substantial transfer of technology. A bilateral dialogue on space has been recently instituted; the two leaders will take stock of it and provide political guidance. Nuclear cooperation has admittedly stalled with regard to the building of 6 nuclear power plants in Jaitapur, Maharashtra. Both sides are guilty in various degrees. Both must recommit to the ultimate goal with renewed vigour.
The new areas are exciting as well. Green Hydrogen may well become the lynchpin of the future Franco-Indian relationship. So will areas like quantum computing, artificial intelligence and cyber security. France has some of the best green technology; India must actively seek and acquire it.
Trade and Investment are well below potential. We could appeal to France to help us with the Free Trade Agreement negotiations that India is undertaking with EU, keeping in mind the competence of the European Commission in the matter. India’s own trade and investment with France needs political impetus, we have left it for too long in the hands of the private sector of the two countries.
People-to-people ties must be given a fillip. Indian students are missing a trick in not looking more seriously at France for higher studies. (Full disclosure: the author obtained his PhD from Sciences Po University in Paris). France has set itself the goal of welcoming many thousands of Indian students on its soil; Indian students must grab the opportunity with both hands. French language is beautiful; but it is no longer a barrier since a lot of courses are offered in English.
France has proved to be a reliable and a trusted strategic partner. It has given us solid support whether it is India’s candidature for the UN Security Council, the Nuclear Suppliers Group or indeed enabling us in joining groups like the Wassenaar Arrangement or the Missile Technology Control Regime. France has provided solid support for India’s demarches in the UN Security Council for counter-terrorism efforts including listing of terrorists.
There are no serious differences between France and India, that is for sure. But there are at least two subjects on which our respective positions are nuanced. One is Ukraine, where the position of the two countries is somewhat different. France certainly understands where India is coming from; still, the Indian side can benefit from a detailed assessment by the French side on the current situation in Ukraine. China is the other subject that will be discussed. Our relationship with China is at an all time low; but France does actively engage with China (witness recent Macron visit to Beijing) and has close ties of trade and investment with it. The Indian side could benefit from the current thinking in France and EU about the “de-risking” strategy being contemplated and the long-term prospects for Sino-Russian cooperation.
I have been asked, as a former Indian Ambassador to France, whether the recent unfortunate events in France will affect the Indian PM’s impending visit. First, they are all the more reason for PM Modi to go to France now to express solidarity. Second, France is perfectly capable of handling its domestic affairs and I have no doubt that it will bounce back, as it always does. Third, these unfortunate events will have no impact whatsoever on the bilateral ties, which are exemplary. Last, but not least, France never comments officially on the internal affairs of India; the least we can do is reciprocate this in full measure, which we have done.
There is every reason to be confident that PM Modi’s visit will provide a huge fillip to the existing bilateral ties and take it to the next level. In an uncertain world, it would be no exaggeration to say that the Franco-Indian relationship is a force for good and stability.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 