The world order was already characterised by a “polycrisis”. But recent developments in Russia can best be described as a “grey rhino” event (Wagner imbroglio) superimposed on top of a “black swan” event (Russian invasion of Ukraine). Discerning trends, much less forecasting events, has become next to impossible in this international scenario. Is Putin stronger or weaker after the Wagner rebellion? Have Russia’s war efforts been hindered irreparably? Will Ukraine’s counter offensive get a shot in the arm? So many questions and so few answers! India must closely watch what is going on in Russia for the implications are more serious than what may appear on the surface.
One reason for the current world disorder is the complete lack of balance of power in any part of the world leading to general and global disequilibrium. The unipolar moment is long gone, though the US still remains the pre-eminent power. China which until very recently was hurtling towards superpower status, is facing unexpected headwinds, economic and social, if not political. For the very first time, observers are beginning to ask questions regarding what was once considered totally inevitable: Can China ever overtake the US in terms of comprehensive national power? Europe is mired in its own misery, some of its own making and the rest thanks to goings-on in Ukraine. That leaves middle powers such as Japan, India, Australia and Korea which ironically enough are not doing so badly. These are typically “swing states” which actually have a tremendous opportunity in the current circumstances to punch above their weight, if they know how to play it right.
India’s move to align itself closer to the US, exemplified by the hugely successful visit of PM Modi to Washington is a good example of India “playing it right”. For India, a multipolar Asia is a sine qua non for a multipolar world. At present, India by itself cannot ensure (though it can contribute to ) a multipolar Asia, much less a multipolar world. Hence, the need for what foreign policy experts call “external balancing” which is what PM Modi’s US visit was about. It is not possible for Asia to be multipolar as long as China believes in a hegemonic role for itself. And it is no rocket science that if there is one country that can potentially measure up to China, it is India. In this fundamental sense, China was the “dragon in the room” during the recent summit meeting between PM Modi and President Biden. But for India there were other substantive reasons as well: defence, security, technology and people-to-people ties, to name a few.
It was interesting to see the reaction to the visit by PM Modi to Washington in the CCP mouthpiece Global Times. Reacting to one American media report that the US had placed a huge bet on India, the Global Times proclaimed loudly that the “US will lose its huge bet”. If that wasn’t clear enough, the paper went on to say that the “close” Indo-American ties were “temporary, unstable and unreliable”. Intriguingly, it went on to say that India is a strategically independent country and it was therefore unlikely to follow the script written by Washington. The paper expressed the belief that India would make calm and sober choices, as history had proven. It added, for good measure, that becoming a “pawn” in the US containment of China does not align with either India’s national interest or indeed with the dignity of India as a major power. All this is extraordinary coming from a country that is entirely and solely credited by some observers for driving India into the arms of the US!
Such then is the state of the world where nothing is what it seems on the surface. To paraphrase Churchill, international relations appears to be a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. And we may be passing through a moment in time when decades happen in weeks as Lenin famously proclaimed!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 