The annual Shangri-La dialogue organized by the London-based, renowned think tank International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) takes place in Singapore and this year’s edition concluded only today. Normally, it is an occasion for security and defence Ministers, domain experts and leading academics to get together and dwell on the international strategic landscape. In this sense, it rivals the annual Munich Security Conference.
This year’s event was attended by both the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and the Chinese Defence Minister General Li Shangfu, not to mention several others. But the focus was on these two Gentlemen because the Chinese have steadfastly refused meetings with the Americans at this level. In the event, the Shangri-La dialogue had to content itself with a smile and handshake between the two men. No substantive conversation took place. The Chinese rammed home the message of no talks, by ensuring that their Defence Minister met virtually every other Defence Minister attending the event, including the Australian and the Japanese Defence Minister.
So, what lies behind this latest Chinese stratagem? Well for starters, China wishes to send a signal to the world that it is not desperate for a security dialogue and that it is the US which is the supplicant here. Two, the Chinese Defence Minister has been subject to American sanctions since 2018 related to weapons purchases from Russia. That did not prevent the Chinese Minister from shaking hands with Lloyd Austin at a dinner, but talks are another matter. The Chinese are also waiting for the FBI report on the “balloon incident”. It would be embarrassing to the Chinese, to say the least, if the report were to demonstrate beyond doubt that the balloon was indeed actually spying in American air space. Third, the Chinese are engaging in “selective dialogue” with the US. So, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met the Chinese foreign policy czar Wang Yi for eight hours in Vienna. Other conversations such as the one between USTR Tai, Commerce Secretary Gaimondo with the Chinese Commerce Minister happened recently in Detroit on the sidelines of an APEC meeting. But the most significant of them all was the quiet trip undertaken by CIA Director William Burns to China in May where he is reported to have emphasized the need to keep channels of communication open between the two sides.
But it is not just the Defence Ministers meeting that is yet to take place. The much-vaunted Anthony Blinken trip to China is yet to take place. And as far back as February, President Biden had hinted he will chat on the phone with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the near future. This has not happened so far.
Just before the speech by the Chinese Defence Minister at the Shangri-La dialogue, there was drama in the Taiwan Strait. A US destroyer and a Canadian frigate were staging a rare joint sailing in the Taiwan Strait when a Chinese warship sailed in their path, barely avoiding collision. The Chinese side defended this by saying that “freedom of navigation” was a provocation for China and that the latter considered it “hegemony of navigation”. The Chinese Minister’s blunt message to the US and others was: mind your business and do not come near our shores!
The respective speeches of the Defence Ministers of US and China sounded like a slanging match. US Secretary of Defence stated that the US would not flinch in the face of bullying or coercion from China and would continue regularly sailing through and flying over the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to emphasize they are international waters. The Chinese Defence Minister who spoke after his US counterpart did not name the US, but said that the so-called rules-based international order did not make clear what the rules were and who made these rules in the first place. He also accused a particular country of practicing exceptionalism and double standards.
On Taiwan, the Chinese Defence Minister was at his most hawkish saying that it was “the core of Chinese core interests”. He went on to add that “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan and how to resolve the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese to decide”. It could not have been articulated more directly. Obviously, Taiwan remains a potential hotspot, along with South and East China sea. India would also do well to take note of Chinese bellicosity.
The war in Ukraine figured on the agenda of the Shangri-La dialogue as well. The Indonesian Defence Minister Subianto proposed a peace plan for Ukraine. It included: immediate cessation of hostilities, freezing of present positions, demilitarized zones and UN peacekeeping forces for possible referenda in contested regions. This immediately drew the ire of the West, with Ukraine dismissing it out of hand.
The most difficult issue when it comes to a diplomatic solution for the war in Ukraine is what to do with around 20 per cent of Ukrainian land that Russia is currently occupying. The key question is this: should the Russian withdrawal occur as a result of negotiations or as a prior condition before negotiations commence. Ukraine, supported by the West, wants Russia to withdraw from these territories before the negotiations even begin. Otherwise, the West believes there can be no just peace and it would be tantamount to rewarding Russia, the aggressor and the invader. On the other hand, it is impossible to see Russia withdrawing from the territory it currently occupies in Ukraine, unless it is forced to do so through a military defeat or as a result of tough negotiations, if that. Prospects for peace, whether just or not, in Ukraine therefore appear very bleak indeed.
For the Global South, the impact of the war in Ukraine is bad enough as it is with food and energy insecurity, among others. If in addition, trouble were to erupt in the Indo-Pacific, either in Taiwan Strait or elsewhere, it would be nothing short of catastrophic. Against this backdrop, the sooner the US and China begin talking security, the better it is. World peace depends on it, quite literally.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 