Chinese President Xi Jinping had let it be known to French President Emmanuel Macron and EU Council President Ursula van der Leyen that he will call Ukrainian President Zelensky when the time was right. That was in the first week of April. By making the call to Zelensky on April 26, Xi was making good his promise. But it is hard to believe conditions in Ukraine have somehow changed dramatically between the first week of April and last. So, what is at work here?
For one thing, China now takes its role as a superpower seriously. It sincerely believes it has a mandate from heaven to construct a new world order, more to its liking. In order to do this, there is a need to acquire legitimacy which it perhaps lacks at the moment. The successful mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and now the attempt to do so in Ukraine must be seen in this context. Ukraine seems like a long shot at present, but never say never in statecraft.
Indeed, the Chinese have every reason to feel smug for the moment. After all, Xi Jinping’s call to Zelensky has been welcomed by all stakeholders. Ukraine’s President has characterised his telephone call with Xi Jinping as “long and meaningful”. It is intriguing why Zelensky’s tone to Xi Jinping borders on the obsequious. Maybe he wishes to prevent further consolidation of Sino-Russian ties, which is to Ukraine’s disadvantage. Maybe he is looking long term and wishes Chinese assistance for post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. The US has called the phone call “a good thing”. And EU, arguably the most important stakeholder of them all, has also welcomed it calling it an “important, long overdue step” by China. Finnish President went further calling it “good news”. Ironically, the only party somewhat discomfited by the Chinese initiative is its all-weather friend, Russia, which while praising Chinese efforts, made it a point to underline that Ukraine was the impediment to peace, not Russia!
Zelensky also confirmed that he was despatching an Ambassador to Beijing pronto. Xi said he was sending his special envoy to Ukraine for exploratory peace talks. French President Macron, meanwhile. has not given up his ambition to be the ultimate peacemaker in this matter. There are indications he broached the subject of a peace conference with Xi Jinping in his talks in Beijing. Ideally, Macron could do with some foreign policy triumphs, given the political headwinds he is facing at home. What could be better than a meeting this summer at the Versailles Palace between Putin and Zelensky leading to a ceasefire! Sounds like a pipe dream now, but who knows?
The Chinese Ambassador in Paris Lu Shaye almost destroyed everything by making a “Freudian slip” of saying that former Soviet republics do not possess internationally recognized legal sovereignty, causing Beijing to walk back his comments. It is somewhat surprising the matter has died so quickly.
It is difficult to avoid the impression that the Chinese have been smart by playing all the sides in this matter. It will be interesting to see if the parties to the conflict bite the bait!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 