The election of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as President of Brazil in January 2023 certainly signalled some changes in its foreign and security policy. At a minimum, Lula was expected to roll back some of the more egregious “tilts” his predecessor had sought to make in Brazil’s foreign policy. But Lula’s trip to China and the subsequent statements he made from there point to much more substantive changes in Brazil’s foreign and security policy.
First, Brazil’s stance on the war in Ukraine. In February 2023 (after Lula’s assumption of office as President) the U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly in favour of a resolution calling for an end to the war in Ukraine and demanding that Russia leave Ukrainian territory. Brazil along with the West and 140 other countries voted in favour of the above resolution, implicitly condemning Russia for its actions. In the beginning of April however Lula sent his most trusted foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, to Moscow. Details of the trip are hard to come by, but the fact that Amorim met Russian President Putin is significant. Putin is a recluse these days and rarely meets visitors. For him to meet Amorim particularly after Brazil voted for the above UNGA resolution is an important sign and may have to do with Lula sending a message to Putin. Again in the first week of April, Lula made a statement which caught people by surprise. He said Ukraine should be willing to give up Crimea in order to make peace with Russia. Ukraine’s reaction was swift and negative. The diplomatic waltz continued with Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov making a visit to Brasilia, no doubt carrying messages from Putin to Lula. Lavrov said that Moscow was “grateful to our Brazilian friends for their clear understanding of the genesis of the situation”.
Lula also paid a state visit to China in April. But perhaps most surprising of all, was the statement made by Lula that the US “needs to stop encouraging war and start talking about peace”. It is worth pointing that these comments of Lula came after a trip to China where he met with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and where he appeared to endorse the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine.
Lula also questioned the dominance of the American dollar and asked why it is that all countries should trade in the dollar. This came close on the heels of a bilateral agreement between China and Brazil to use their respective currencies and eschew the dollar. Lula asked rhetorically: Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar? While in China, Lula stated that no one can prevent Brazil from improving its ties with China. The Minister for Finance added that Brazil’s goal was to “reindustrialize” Brazil with Chinese capital.
Reaction from the US was not long in coming. US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby accused Lula of “parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda”.
So, what to make of all this? Well, Brazil is back to practicing its brand of non-alignment. The fact that it is able to do this even after voting for the UNGA resolution is revelatory and speaks of its deft diplomacy. But whether Lula can be the ultimate peacemaker in the Ukraine imbroglio is something that only time will tell.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 