The visit by the Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow to meet his “old friend” Russian President Vladimir Putin led to another substantive Joint Statement. The visit and the outcome has several strategic dimensions, some of which are highlighted below:
(1) Xi Jinping has not just doubled down on Russia but has thrown his considerable weight behind Putin, to the extent of wishing that he be re-elected in the Presidential elections in Russia in March next year.
(2) This is a poke in the eye for the West and the ICC which has just issued an arrest warrant for Putin.
(3) The two leaders, Xi and Putin, have decided to support their respective country’s core interests: Russia will support China on Taiwan, Xinjiang and Hong Kong. It must be therefore be assumed that China will support Russia in its core interests, including Ukraine!
(4) It is becoming abundantly clear that China will be loath to seeing Russia fail in Ukraine. Consequently, China will definitely go all out to support Russia economically, sanctions or no sanctions!
(5) The issue of hardcore defence cooperation was obviously not part of the Joint Statement. But the question is will China after all this, stand idly by if Russia faces potential defeat in the war in Ukraine. The situation needs close watching.
(6) For India, this may mean a diminution of its strategic space. It may also mean that India may have to align itself more to the West, if only to counter China with regard to its core interests.
(7) While Russia has called China’s peace proposals for Ukraine “constructive” it appears dead on arrival for Ukraine. We will wait and see how the phone call between Xi and Zelensky goes.
(8) There is a pincer movement in the international strategic landscape with China throwing its weight behind Russia on the one hand and the US/EU trying to garner support from its allies and partners, on the other.
P.S. The above is an abridged version of a longer article by the author with the same title in the newspaper ” The Indian Express” dated March 24, 2023.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 