It has become a cliche to suggest that today’s world confronts a “polycrisis” – perhaps best defined as simultaneous and overlapping crises confronting the world. It is simply not possible, even for the pre-eminent power in the world, the United States, to try and solve these problems. So, there is a dire need for global cooperation and for countries to sink their differences. However, what we are witnessing is an approach by most powers best described as : to each his own and devil take the hindmost!
First, the international security scenario. The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community dated February 2023 makes sober reading. It clearly states that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a NATO/West versus Russia war with disastrous consequences not just for Europe but for the wider region and indeed the world.
In Asia, Taiwan remains a potential hotspot. If American Generals are to be believed it is not a question of whether China will use military force in Taiwan, but when. As if this were not enough in Asia, there may be an acute security crisis in North-East Asia triggered by North Korea’s testing of nuclear weapons and use of ballistic missiles. The Sino-Indian border remains tense, if not hot, and the fact that there are thousands of troops on either side in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation provides for a combustible situation. South China and East China Sea are tense maritime theatres and remain unpredictable. Possibilities of a conflict between India and Pakistan always remain, even if probability is low. So much for this being an Asian Century!
The Middle East has always been a turbulent region. It is not about to change soon, despite the unexpected deal brokered by China between arch rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic ties. Nevertheless, the above report by the US Intelligence Community considers Iran as a serious threat. Other reports also speak of a possible military confrontation between Israel and Iran over the latter’s nuclear program.
Africa has made significant progress. But there are serious conflicts involving Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Mali, Burkina Faso and South Sudan; and this list is not even complete.
Further afar, a migration surge to the US due to increased violence, political unrest aggravated by climate events could lead to tension and disquiet in an election year.
And then there are global challenges which are clearly transborder. Climate Change is clearly the foremost. Some action world wide is being taken, but not nearly enough to confine global warming to 2 degrees celsius over pre-industrial times. Very soon, it may be too late to save the only planet we have. Cyber attacks are a serious threat and the US threat assessment report talks of both China, Russia and Iran possessing the capability to disrupt cyber networks and data.
Food (in)security in low income countries has taken on crisis-like proportions, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Human security is also a major casualty with the dead now numbering thousands in Russia and Ukraine. Terrorism and Nuclear Proliferation are key “gray rhino” threats that are not receiving the attention they deserve.
In an ideal world, the UN Security Council would have reformed itself and tackled (if not resolved) the war in Ukraine, the UN Conference in disarmament would have dealt with non-proliferation, UN itself would have come up with a counter-terrorism treaty, WTO would have ensured smooth trade & investment flows, Food and Agriculture Organization (and the World Food Programme) would have dealt with food insecurity and regional organizations like the African Union would have come up with peace plans for its continent. In reality, nothing could be further from the truth. The multilateral institutions set up in the aftermath of WW II have failed us and become near-defunct.
It is therefore obvious from the above that the “polycrisis” will be with us for a long time. The question is how many countries can emerge unscathed from all this?
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 