In retrospect, the fact that there was a consensus document in the form of the G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration in November last year under the Indonesian Presidency seems miraculous. The formulation on the war in Ukraine was merely factual, but captured the essence accurately. The question is what has happened since then that two countries in the G20 grouping, namely, Russia and China, have disassociated themselves from the statement concluded in Bali which after all was agreed to by their leaders then.
In the case of Russia, the reasons may be simpler to fathom though harder to justify. Russia’s views have simply hardened between Bali and now and they feel more and more isolated in the world at large. This does not mean, contrary to perception in some quarters, that they are losing the war. As one of my colleagues put it, Russia is too weak to win the war and Ukraine is too strong to lose it! This is a classic recipe for a never-ending military stalemate. Both Russia and Ukraine are digging in and mobilizing more resources for subsequent military action for territorial gain. Meanwhile, Russia wants its diplomacy to be in sync, and Russia may have even felt that it made a mistake in Bali which it is now trying to correct. Whatever the reasons, Lavrov’s outburst at the Raisina Dialogue tells you Russia is ratcheting it up, rather than dialling it down.
China’s support for Russia at the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is more curious. After all, China too agreed to the Bali Leaders’ Declaration on Ukraine, so why disagree now? The only way this can be interpreted is that China is doubling down on its “no limits” partnership with Russia, knowing full well this strategy will not be cost-free. This is important for the world, but even more for India whose strategic calculus is now fraught.
Also note that, India is increasingly distancing itself, ever so subtly, from the position taken by China on the Ukraine issue. If ever there is a country that is non-partisan and neutral at the present time, it is India. This does make it ideally suited to be a “bridge” between the geopolitical adversaries.
The Indian G20 Presidency however just got more complicated. This is not surprising at all. It may also be noted that this is indeed the first time the G20 Foreign Ministers are issuing any kind of document at all! In Bali in July 2022 there was not even a Chair’s Summary with Lavrov walking off in a huff after saying his piece. But what remains to be seen is how much of a shadow the Ukraine war will cast on the rest of the G20 meetings planned by India. More crucially, can India repeat the feat of the Indonesian G20 Presidency by coming up with a consensus document at the summit meeting in Delhi in September 2023. There is still a lot of time and Indian diplomacy, led by its formidable External Affairs Minister, should be up for the challenge.
Against that backdrop, it is hard to overlook the Quad Joint Statement issued in Delhi on March 3 just after the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting. It is remarkably lucid and has a paragraph on Ukraine which merits close scrutiny. It makes three points:
>The inadmissibility of nuclear weapons;
>The need for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine in accordance with international law, including the UN Charter; and
>The rules-based international order must respect sovereignty, territorial integrity, transparency, and peaceful resolution of disputes.
This can and should provide a template for the G 20 Delhi Leaders’ Declaration in September. The words “comprehensive, just and lasting peace” provide enough leeway to take into account the legitimate concerns of both Russia and Ukraine. It is well known that Russia and China dislike a phrase used above: rules-based international order. But a way must be found to get around this. I have had the honour in the last few days to interact with some key Foreign Ministers who were here for G20/Raisina Dialogue, and my unmistakeable sense is that no one, especially in Europe, expects the war to end anytime soon. But diplomats are nothing if not inveterate optimists. Attempts must therefore be made by India and other like-minded countries to try and mediate an end to this horrific war!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 