The focus of the entire world is on the first year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24. But there is another anniversary which just went by in early February without much comment from observers of global diplomacy. That was the one year anniversary on February 4 of the famous Sino-Russian Joint Statement which boasted a “no limits” friendship between the two countries. How does this relationship measure up after one year?
Well, the relationship has certainly not withered away as some thought it would when Russia suffered serious losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. With no sign of recalibration, China is actually showing every sign of doubling down on its “alliance” with Russia. On the other hand, the notion that it can be a “no limits” friendship and that there are no “forbidden areas of cooperation” between China and Russia, is being severely tested. So, in the Munich Security Conference a a couple of days ago, American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned the top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi of “consequences” if China contemplated supplying weapons to Russia. Chinese firms are already facing the heat from the US, and they would not want further problems by materially aiding Russia.
Another sign of China doubling down on its ties with Russia is Wang Yi travelling to Moscow on 22 February to meet Russian President Putin. After the meeting, Wang Yi gushed that the two sides would deepen mutual trust and strategic cooperation. He added for good measure that “Sino-Russian relations have withstood pressure from the international community and are developing in a very stable manner against the backdrop of a very complex, changing international situation”.
Ahead of his meeting with Putin, Wang Yi also met the influential Russian national security official Nikolai Patrushev who affirmed solemnly that Russia would support China on Taiwan and on Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong!
Against the above background, it is somewhat intriguing that China has hinted at announcing a peace plan for Ukraine on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion i.e. February 24. Intriguing, because China has thrown its lot with Russia and it is not clear it has the necessary standing in the matter to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. Russia may welcome a peace plan put forward by China for obvious reasons, but it is far from certain that Ukraine will enthusiastically welcome any proposal emanating from China!
If it is true that China has doubled down on its ties with Russia, then it is also in China’s strategic interest to see that Russia does not completely fail in Ukraine. The question for China is how to achieve this goal even while not antagonizing the West, whose market, finance and technology China needs in the short to medium term. This then is the strategic dilemma that confronts China.
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 