Just when all observers unanimously felt that the scheduled Blinken visit will lower the tension between the US and China, the “L’Affaire Balloon” put paid to all such hopes at least in the short term.
The big question is whether this was a honest mistake by China, as it claims, or whether there was malicious intent, as the US believes. Either way, the main casualty is trust, which is a rare commodity in Sino-American ties. Optimists are clutching at straws, by saying the visit has only been “postponed” and not “cancelled”. Diplomats have a way with words but they also attach inordinate importance to them. Be that as it may, Blinken is expected to reschedule the visit in the next few weeks.
The questions why a Balloon and why now, are tough to answer and is best left to spooks and posterity. For instance, advanced spy satellited are available so why use a nineteenth century instrument to gather information. As for the timing, either it was an accident or there are some in China who are dead opposed to a rapprochement with the US. Either way, China has egg on its face and that explains its angry reaction when the balloon was shot down off the South Carolina coast by an American fighter aircraft.
Another intriguing question is why the US waited as long as it did to bring the balloon down. Perhaps, the US did want to acquire the balloon intact to examine the Chinese surveillance equipment inside. After all, the balloon was the size of three buses and was therefore carrying quite a payload. Debris will still be collected by the US and we will know in due course whether something of significance is found.
Bipartisan sentiment in the US Congress has hardened vis-a-vis China. This will make it difficult for the Biden Administration to take initiatives to lower tensions for fear of being seen as “soft” on China. It will be interesting to see what China’s next steps are, for it does seem as though it needs the detente with US more than the US does.
The year 2023 has a busy diplomatic calendar. Biden and Xi Jinping are expected to be together at least on two occasions: one the G20 summit in Delhi in September and the other when Biden hosts the APEC summit meeting in November in San Francisco. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping will visit Moscow to meet his “best friend” Putin and all eyes will on how the two leaders translate the “no limits partnership” rhetoric into concrete steps. This is important because, the war in Ukraine is showing no signs of slowing down and a diplomatic resolution is looking more and more unlikely by the day.
This triangular relationship between US, China and Russia is becoming increasingly complicated with diplomatic implications not just for the parties involved but for others as well. A “menage a trois” of a completely different kind, one might say!
Diplomacy and Geopolitics 